17056 Ridge Rd · Holley, NY 14470

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,656 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1972 0.62 ac lot Est $161k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Ranch Duplex located on banks of Sandy Creek expansive large lot for private campsite or fishing. Just West of Monroe/Orleans Countyline Road. Minutes from Suny Brockport.

Key facts

• Laundry mudroom
• Creek front
• 0.62 acre lot

Tags

• CREEK FRONT
• LAUNDRY MUDROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $421 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.6% in Holley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#705 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Holley Central School District (town): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #505 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Holley Elementary School (math 33% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,356 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 543 students, 56% FRL); Holley Junior Senior High School (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,069 of 1,100 statewide, top 98%, 423 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Orleans County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orleans County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $150k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $145,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.05%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $160,632
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17056 Ridge Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,656 (0%)	1mo	$160,000	$97	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,647
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $37,278
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14470

• Home prices YoY: -10.8%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,996 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$307 /mo · $3,684/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $421

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,463

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $506	-5% $464	+0% $421	+5% $379	+10% $336
Rent	-10% $264	-5% $342	+0% $421	+5% $500	+10% $579
Rate	-1.0pp $497	-0.5pp $459	base $421	+0.5pp $382	+1.0pp $343

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	2	$1,996
Total (2 units)			$1,996

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-19
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-17
   listed $149,900 Active
4. 2019-03-15
   soldstatus $73,500 Closed Sale or Rented 171-char remark

   Show marketing remark (171 chars)

   Ranch Duplex located on banks of Sandy Creek expansive large lot for private campsite or fishing. Just West of Monroe/Orleans Countyline Road. Minutes from Suny Brockport.

5. 2019-03-15
   soldstatus $73,500 Closed Sale or Rented 171-char remark

   Show marketing remark (171 chars)

   Ranch Duplex located on banks of Sandy Creek expansive large lot for private campsite or fishing. Just West of Monroe/Orleans Countyline Road. Minutes from Suny Brockport.

6. 2019-03-12
   soldstatus $73,500
7. 2019-01-28
   status Pending Sale 171-char remark

   Show marketing remark (171 chars)

   Ranch Duplex located on banks of Sandy Creek expansive large lot for private campsite or fishing. Just West of Monroe/Orleans Countyline Road. Minutes from Suny Brockport.

8. 2019-01-28
   status Pending Sale 171-char remark

   Show marketing remark (171 chars)

   Ranch Duplex located on banks of Sandy Creek expansive large lot for private campsite or fishing. Just West of Monroe/Orleans Countyline Road. Minutes from Suny Brockport.

9. 2018-11-19
   price $79,900 171-char remark

   Show marketing remark (171 chars)

   Ranch Duplex located on banks of Sandy Creek expansive large lot for private campsite or fishing. Just West of Monroe/Orleans Countyline Road. Minutes from Suny Brockport.

10. 2018-11-19
    price $79,900 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Ranch Duplex located on banks of Sandy Creek expansive large lot for private campsite or fishing. Just West of Monroe/Orleans Countyline Road. Minutes from Suny Brockport.

11. 2018-10-26
    price $92,500 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Ranch Duplex located on banks of Sandy Creek expansive large lot for private campsite or fishing. Just West of Monroe/Orleans Countyline Road. Minutes from Suny Brockport.

12. 2018-10-26
    price $92,500 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Ranch Duplex located on banks of Sandy Creek expansive large lot for private campsite or fishing. Just West of Monroe/Orleans Countyline Road. Minutes from Suny Brockport.

13. 2018-10-11
    price $97,500 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Ranch Duplex located on banks of Sandy Creek expansive large lot for private campsite or fishing. Just West of Monroe/Orleans Countyline Road. Minutes from Suny Brockport.

14. 2018-10-11
    price $97,500 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Ranch Duplex located on banks of Sandy Creek expansive large lot for private campsite or fishing. Just West of Monroe/Orleans Countyline Road. Minutes from Suny Brockport.

15. 2018-10-01
    price $107,000 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Ranch Duplex located on banks of Sandy Creek expansive large lot for private campsite or fishing. Just West of Monroe/Orleans Countyline Road. Minutes from Suny Brockport.

16. 2018-10-01
    price $107,000 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Ranch Duplex located on banks of Sandy Creek expansive large lot for private campsite or fishing. Just West of Monroe/Orleans Countyline Road. Minutes from Suny Brockport.

17. 2018-08-11
    listed $112,000 Active 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Ranch Duplex located on banks of Sandy Creek expansive large lot for private campsite or fishing. Just West of Monroe/Orleans Countyline Road. Minutes from Suny Brockport.

18. 2018-08-11
    listed $112,000 Active 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Ranch Duplex located on banks of Sandy Creek expansive large lot for private campsite or fishing. Just West of Monroe/Orleans Countyline Road. Minutes from Suny Brockport.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,684 · $307/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,684 · $307/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,952
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$3,684
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,916
• − Management: −$1,916
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $2,929
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$703
• After-tax cash flow: $4,353/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Holley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614610
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,177
• Composite: 35.13/100
• National rank: #5013
• State rank: #505 of 590 in NY

Livability — Holley

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #705
• US rank: #13281

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,765

Population outlook (Orleans County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,123 people
• By 2030: 37,648 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 34,432 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 31,487 · -19.5%
• By 2075: 26,544 · -32.2%
• By 2100: 22,251 · -43.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orleans

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.5) · D 29.8% · R 70.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: -18.7pp · 2024: -40.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.5 2020: R+36.0 2016: R+43.4 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+18.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.80%
• Current HPI: 287.9167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+33.8% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-19 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $149,900 UNYREIS
• 2019-03-15 Sold (MLS) $73,500 UNYREIS
• 2019-03-15 Sold (MLS) $73,500 WNYREIS
• 2019-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $73,500 Public Records
• 2019-01-28 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2019-01-28 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2018-11-19 Price Changed $79,900 UNYREIS
• 2018-11-19 Price Changed $79,900 WNYREIS
• 2018-10-26 Price Changed $92,500 WNYREIS
• 2018-10-26 Price Changed $92,500 UNYREIS
• 2018-10-11 Price Changed $97,500 UNYREIS
• 2018-10-11 Price Changed $97,500 WNYREIS
• 2018-10-01 Price Changed $107,000 UNYREIS
• 2018-10-01 Price Changed $107,000 WNYREIS
• 2018-08-11 Listed $112,000 UNYREIS
• 2018-08-11 Listed $112,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,684 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.