23008 S Chulitna Dr · Trapper Creek, AK 99683

$130,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,168 sqft · Other public records · 305 Days on market

Built 1983 2.48 ac lot $111/sqft · 60% below area ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Motivated Seller! Trapper Creek Living at its best! On over 2 acres, this Alaskan home is the perfect place to make it your own. On the main level, you'll find a large kitchen, pantry/storage area, large living room, one bedroom, and a beautiful wood stove. On the upper level, a second bedroom with outdoor patio and cover. Great for morning coffee or gardening! The connex attached to the covered carport, and three door storage outbuilding remains on property. Heat is a wood stove with propane backup; and on-demand hot water system. Covered shed to be removed by tenant. Buyer to use separate Bill of Sale for any items not attached to property. Property BEING SOLD AS-IS, WHERE-IS, no repairs. Buyer to Verify All Information.

Key facts

• Covered carport
• Pantry storage area
• Large kitchen

Tags

• NEARLY 5 ACRES
• LARGE KITCHEN
• PANTRY STORAGE AREA
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• OUTDOOR PATIO
• COVERED CARPORT

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $130,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$328,618) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($121/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#193 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 305 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 305 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.46%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $328,618
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -60.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $16,353
• Equity at exit: $58,454

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $57,401
• Equity at exit: $90,084

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99683

• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,214 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,055/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,201

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 305 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 304 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 303 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 302 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 300 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 299 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $130,000 Active 297 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 296 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 295 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 294 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 290 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 289 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 288 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 287 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $130,000 Active 286 DOM
16. 2025-12-04
    price $130,000 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Motivated Seller! Trapper Creek Living at its best! On over 2 acres, this Alaskan home is the perfect place to make it your own. On the main level, you'll find a large kitchen, pantry/storage area, large living room, one bedroom, and a beautiful wood stove. On the upper level, a second bedroom with outdoor patio and cover. Great for morning coffee or gardening! The connex attached to the covered carport, and three door storage outbuilding remains on property. Heat is a wood stove with propane backup; and on-demand hot water system. Covered shed to be removed by tenant. Buyer to use separate Bill of Sale for any items not attached to property. Property BEING SOLD AS-IS, WHERE-IS, no repairs. Buyer to Verify All Information.

17. 2025-12-04
    status Active 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Motivated Seller! Trapper Creek Living at its best! On over 2 acres, this Alaskan home is the perfect place to make it your own. On the main level, you'll find a large kitchen, pantry/storage area, large living room, one bedroom, and a beautiful wood stove. On the upper level, a second bedroom with outdoor patio and cover. Great for morning coffee or gardening! The connex attached to the covered carport, and three door storage outbuilding remains on property. Heat is a wood stove with propane backup; and on-demand hot water system. Covered shed to be removed by tenant. Buyer to use separate Bill of Sale for any items not attached to property. Property BEING SOLD AS-IS, WHERE-IS, no repairs. Buyer to Verify All Information.

18. 2025-10-09
    status Pending 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Motivated Seller! Trapper Creek Living at its best! On over 2 acres, this Alaskan home is the perfect place to make it your own. On the main level, you'll find a large kitchen, pantry/storage area, large living room, one bedroom, and a beautiful wood stove. On the upper level, a second bedroom with outdoor patio and cover. Great for morning coffee or gardening! The connex attached to the covered carport, and three door storage outbuilding remains on property. Heat is a wood stove with propane backup; and on-demand hot water system. Covered shed to be removed by tenant. Buyer to use separate Bill of Sale for any items not attached to property. Property BEING SOLD AS-IS, WHERE-IS, no repairs. Buyer to Verify All Information.

19. 2025-08-27
    price $135,000 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Motivated Seller! Trapper Creek Living at its best! On over 2 acres, this Alaskan home is the perfect place to make it your own. On the main level, you'll find a large kitchen, pantry/storage area, large living room, one bedroom, and a beautiful wood stove. On the upper level, a second bedroom with outdoor patio and cover. Great for morning coffee or gardening! The connex attached to the covered carport, and three door storage outbuilding remains on property. Heat is a wood stove with propane backup; and on-demand hot water system. Covered shed to be removed by tenant. Buyer to use separate Bill of Sale for any items not attached to property. Property BEING SOLD AS-IS, WHERE-IS, no repairs. Buyer to Verify All Information.

20. 2025-06-22
    listed $150,000 Active 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Motivated Seller! Trapper Creek Living at its best! On over 2 acres, this Alaskan home is the perfect place to make it your own. On the main level, you'll find a large kitchen, pantry/storage area, large living room, one bedroom, and a beautiful wood stove. On the upper level, a second bedroom with outdoor patio and cover. Great for morning coffee or gardening! The connex attached to the covered carport, and three door storage outbuilding remains on property. Heat is a wood stove with propane backup; and on-demand hot water system. Covered shed to be removed by tenant. Buyer to use separate Bill of Sale for any items not attached to property. Property BEING SOLD AS-IS, WHERE-IS, no repairs. Buyer to Verify All Information.

21. 2018-05-25
    listed $139,000
22. 2016-05-25
    listed $165,000
23. 2011-07-11
    listed $185,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,055 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,301 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: +$246/yr (+$20/mo · 23.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone A · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,055
• − Insurance: −$2,152
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,166
• − Management: −$1,166
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$2,033
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$488
• After-tax cash flow: $609/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Trapper Creek

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #193
• US rank: #24848

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Trapper Creek, AK
• City population: 584
• Population (ZIP): 584

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 8% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Slovak 6% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-29.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $130,000 AKMLS
• 2025-12-04 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2025-10-09 Pending — AKMLS
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $135,000 AKMLS
• 2025-06-22 Listed $150,000 AKMLS
• 2018-05-25 Listed $139,000 AKMLS
• 2016-05-25 Listed $165,000 AKMLS
• 2011-07-11 Listed $185,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,055 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.