338 Ivy Hills Cir · Calera, AL 35040

$259,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,755 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 2018 7,840 sqft lot $148/sqft · at area comps Est $265k · at est. $11/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic investment opportunity with an established tenant already in place! This charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath home in the Old Ivy subdivision features a welcoming living room with a cozy fireplace. The kitchen offers an eat-in dining area, select stainless steel appliances, and recessed lighting. Additional highlights include a 2-car garage.

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2018

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-29 ($-345/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.5% in Calera — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#325 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Calera Intermediate School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #311 of 627 statewide, top 50%, 766 students, 68% FRL); Calera Middle (math 9% / reading 45%, grade F, #147 of 257 statewide, top 58%, 755 students, 61% FRL); Calera High (math 18% / reading 21%, grade F, #169 of 305 statewide, top 59%, 1,066 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 26% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Shelby County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 373 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $226k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,817 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.47%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,063
• List price: $259,900
• Delta: -1.95%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
338 Ivy Hills Cir	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,755 (0%)	1mo	$260,000	$148	99
408 Koslin Loop	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,774 (+1%)	1mo	$309,900	$175	86
716 Spruce Cir	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,774 (+1%)	1mo	$324,900	$183	77
122 E Willow Cir	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,698 (-3%)	3mo	$380,000	$224	77
255 Ivy Hills Cir	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,884 (+7%)	2mo	$269,000	$143	76
106 Rosewood Cir	0.17mi	4/3.0	1,846 (+5%)	5mo	$280,000	$152	75
109 Ivy Trce	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,884 (+7%)	2mo	$239,000	$127	72
605 Klynes Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,613 (-8%)	7mo	$268,700	$167	70
566 Boxwood Bnd	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,774 (+1%)	3mo	$319,900	$180	67
320 Oakmont Cir	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,497 (-15%)	0mo	$284,900	$190	64
404 Koslin Loop	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,497 (-15%)	1mo	$289,900	$194	63
535 Boxwood Bnd	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,617 (-8%)	6mo	$289,900	$179	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-42,497
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-33,340
• Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35040

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 373
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,148 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,922/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$11
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,185

Max offer price $254,828

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $118	-5% $45	+0% $-29	+5% $-102	+10% $-176
Rent	-10% $-198	-5% $-114	+0% $-29	+5% $56	+10% $141
Rate	-1.0pp $102	-0.5pp $37	base $-29	+0.5pp $-96	+1.0pp $-165

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 Hollow Ct Calera, AL	4.0	2.5	2128	$2,075	$0.98	5d	1	0.16mi
201 Ivy Hills Cir Calera, AL	4.0	2.0	2033	$1,975	$0.97	45d	1	0.32mi
1004 Medinah Dr Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1823	$1,850	$1.01	21d	1	1.16mi
309 Oakmont CIR Calera, AL	5.0	3.0	2012	$1,980	$0.98	3d	1	1.22mi
313 Oakmont CIR Calera, AL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,995	$1.12	45d	1	1.23mi
324 Oakmont CIR Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,795	$1.41	3d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $11 · $132/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $259,900 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-04-21
   listed $259,900 Active 343-char remark

   Show marketing remark (343 chars)

   Fantastic investment opportunity with an established tenant already in place! This charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath home in the Old Ivy subdivision features a welcoming living room with a cozy fireplace. The kitchen offers an eat-in dining area, select stainless steel appliances, and recessed lighting. Additional highlights include a 2-car garage.

3. 2026-04-15
   historical $259,900 343-char remark

   Show marketing remark (343 chars)

   Fantastic investment opportunity with an established tenant already in place! This charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath home in the Old Ivy subdivision features a welcoming living room with a cozy fireplace. The kitchen offers an eat-in dining area, select stainless steel appliances, and recessed lighting. Additional highlights include a 2-car garage.

4. 2025-07-22
   historical $1,600
5. 2025-06-30
   price $1,600
6. 2025-06-13
   price $1,745
7. 2025-05-24
   listed $1,780
8. 2021-06-22
   soldstatus $226,000
9. 2021-06-18
   soldstatus $226,000 Sold 443-char remark

   Show marketing remark (443 chars)

   WELCOME to Old Ivy - a charming subdivision in the heart of Calera! This home a little over 2 years old and is MOVE-IN-READY! With spacious bedrooms, open floor plan and a great kitchen for entertaining, this home has all the character you want! Spacious master bathroom and large walk-in closet. With three additional bedrooms and a full bath at a price you can afford, this one won’t last long! Wonderful location only miles from I-65!

10. 2021-05-17
    historical Contingent 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    WELCOME to Old Ivy - a charming subdivision in the heart of Calera! This home a little over 2 years old and is MOVE-IN-READY! With spacious bedrooms, open floor plan and a great kitchen for entertaining, this home has all the character you want! Spacious master bathroom and large walk-in closet. With three additional bedrooms and a full bath at a price you can afford, this one won’t last long! Wonderful location only miles from I-65!

11. 2021-05-14
    listed $205,000 Active 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    WELCOME to Old Ivy - a charming subdivision in the heart of Calera! This home a little over 2 years old and is MOVE-IN-READY! With spacious bedrooms, open floor plan and a great kitchen for entertaining, this home has all the character you want! Spacious master bathroom and large walk-in closet. With three additional bedrooms and a full bath at a price you can afford, this one won’t last long! Wonderful location only miles from I-65!

12. 2021-05-12
    historical $205,000 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    WELCOME to Old Ivy - a charming subdivision in the heart of Calera! This home a little over 2 years old and is MOVE-IN-READY! With spacious bedrooms, open floor plan and a great kitchen for entertaining, this home has all the character you want! Spacious master bathroom and large walk-in closet. With three additional bedrooms and a full bath at a price you can afford, this one won’t last long! Wonderful location only miles from I-65!

13. 2018-06-13
    soldstatus $347,646
14. 2018-06-06
    soldstatus $172,900 Sold
15. 2018-04-25
    historical Contingent
16. 2018-04-11
    listed $172,900 Active
17. 2017-04-25
    soldstatus $157,900 Sold
18. 2016-10-22
    listed $160,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,922 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,922 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 50% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,778
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$2,922
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,062
• − Management: −$2,062
• − HOA: −$132
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$4,819
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,157
• After-tax cash flow: $812/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County
• NCES district ID: 0103030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,672
• Composite: 39.29/100
• National rank: #3995
• State rank: #16 of 129 in AL

Livability — Calera

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #325
• US rank: #19917

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calera, AL
• County: Shelby County · 188,970 people
• City population: 19,304
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 19,304
• Household income: $84,554
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 388.0

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,024 people
• By 2030: 249,868 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 272,778 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 326,049 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 335,870 · +41.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.0% · R 69.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.58%
• Current HPI: 220.2843
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+61.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $259,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-15 Coming Soon $259,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-07-22 Rental Removed $1,600 RENTLY
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $1,600 RENTLY
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $1,745 RENTLY
• 2025-05-24 Listed for Rent $1,780 RENTLY
• 2021-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $226,000 Public Records
• 2021-06-18 Sold (MLS) $226,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-05-17 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-05-14 Listed $205,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-05-12 Coming Soon $205,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $347,646 Public Records
• 2018-06-06 Sold (MLS) $172,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-04-25 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-04-11 Listed $172,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2017-04-25 Sold (MLS) $157,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2016-10-22 Listed $160,900 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+19.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,922 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.