38 San Sebastian Dr · Rancho Mirage, CA 92270

$499,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,270 sqft · Condo public records · 186 Days on market

Built 1977 $755/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * HUGE PRICE IMPROVEMENT * * Seller says SELL this weekend! Sought-after stunning Double - Fairway Mountain View condo located behind the gates of Rancho Las Palmas Country Club! This highly upgraded contemporary 2-bedroom, 2-bath home features excellent bedroom separation, high vaulted ceilings, designer chef's kitchen, rare fireplace complemented with glass rock all within an open luxurious floorplan. The master design front courtyard with mountain and fairway views is complemented with your own high end Jacuzzi with privacy, professional designed landscape with pavers and serene lighting. You'll find pickle ball, tennis and 3 golf courses right at your finger tips. Great social membership too! The OMNI resort and SPA is just a short walk away as well as the RIVER with shopping, dining and more! Look no further as you have just found your NEW desert home in the heart of Rancho Mirage! . Furnishing are available for you to move right in!

Key facts

• High end jacuzzi
• Pickle ball tennis
• 3 golf courses

Tags

• DOUBLE FAIRWAY MOUNTAIN VIEW
• DESIGNER CHEF'S KITCHEN
• HIGH END JACUZZI
• PICKLE BALL TENNIS
• 3 GOLF COURSES
• OMNI RESORT AND SPA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-29 ($-343/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $494k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $490k (1.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $439k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.0% in Rancho Mirage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,065 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Desert Sands Unified (suburban): math 31% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #199 of 517 in CA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: James Earl Carter Elementary (516 students, 53% FRL); Colonel Mitchell Paige Middle (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #474 of 498 statewide, top 99%, 436 students, 74% FRL); Palm Desert High (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C-, #256 of 1,170 statewide, top 24%, 2,050 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 532 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,904/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($107k/yr) (locally 498% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($439k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $76k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $220k; list at $499k implies a 127% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $439,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.25%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-78,751
• Equity at exit: $74,403

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-54,588
• Equity at exit: $43,144

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92270

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 532
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,904 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax from tax record: −$323 /mo · $3,878/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$755
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,030
• Net cashflow: $-29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,940

Max offer price $493,943

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $254	-5% $113	+0% $-29	+5% $-170	+10% $-311
Rent	-10% $-416	-5% $-222	+0% $-29	+5% $165	+10% $359
Rate	-1.0pp $223	-0.5pp $98	base $-29	+0.5pp $-158	+1.0pp $-289

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20 San Sebastian Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1380	$2,950	$2.14	45d	1	0.06mi
11 Ronda Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	3.0	2.0	1680	$3,200	$1.90	45d	1	0.08mi
159 Torremolinos Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1513	$6,100	$4.03	45d	1	0.15mi
16 Tortosa Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	3.0	2.0	1720	$7,495	$4.36	45d	1	0.17mi
70 Durango Cir Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1500	$3,800	$2.53	16d	1	0.17mi
27 Torremolinos Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	3.0	1.5	1621	$3,300	$2.04	45d	1	0.19mi
63 Torremolinos Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1270	$2,850	$2.24	45d	1	0.24mi
128 Castellana W Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1670	$6,500	$3.89	45d	1	0.26mi
95 Torremolinos Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	3.0	2.0	1680	$3,600	$2.14	20d	1	0.27mi
114 Giralda Cir Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1303	$5,500	$4.22	45d	1	0.29mi
110 Giralda Cir Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1584	$7,000	$4.42	45d	1	0.29mi
138 Gran Via Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1457	$5,500	$3.77	45d	1	0.30mi
101 Juan Cir Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1600	$6,500	$4.06	45d	1	0.30mi
72830 Fleetwood Cir Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1223	$3,000	$2.45	45d	1	0.31mi
117 Juan Cir Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1584	$6,800	$4.29	45d	1	0.31mi
45 Cueta Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1270	$3,000	$2.36	45d	1	0.36mi
36 El Toro Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1270	$4,000	$3.15	26d	1	0.38mi
173 Gran Via Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1584	$5,000	$3.16	45d	1	0.39mi
170 Castellana S Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1347	$6,000	$4.45	45d	1	0.40mi
175 Gran Via Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1656	$2,599	$1.57	7d	1	0.40mi
172 Gran Via Palm Desert, CA	2.0	1.5	1584	$7,000	$4.42	45d	1	0.41mi
81 Marbella Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1582	$5,500	$3.48	45d	1	0.42mi
178 Castellana S Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1303	$5,500	$4.22	45d	1	0.42mi
293 Serena Dr Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1670	$5,500	$3.29	45d	1	0.43mi
291 Serena Dr Palm Desert, CA	2.0	1.5	1303	$5,300	$4.07	45d	1	0.43mi
186 Gran Via Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1303	$7,000	$5.37	45d	1	0.44mi
184 Castellana S Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1457	$5,400	$3.71	45d	1	0.46mi
191 Madrid Ave Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1800	$5,500	$3.06	45d	1	0.47mi
68 El Toro Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1381	$4,000	$2.90	26d	1	0.47mi
197 Madrid Ave Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1336	$5,400	$4.04	45d	1	0.48mi
186 Madrid Ave Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1800	$7,100	$3.94	45d	1	0.50mi
27 Calle Encinitas Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1537	$2,200	$1.43	25d	1	0.50mi
8 Padron Way Rancho Mirage, CA	3.0	2.0	1621	$3,995	$2.46	0d	1	0.53mi
21 Don Quixote Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1270	$4,000	$3.15	26d	1	0.54mi
294 San Vicente Cir Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1584	$5,300	$3.35	45d	1	0.55mi
278 San Vicente Cir Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1656	$5,200	$3.14	45d	1	0.58mi
222 Castellana S Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.5	1656	$7,700	$4.65	45d	1	0.58mi
224 Castellana S Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1457	$5,300	$3.64	45d	1	0.59mi
261 Santa Barbara Cir Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1656	$5,800	$3.50	45d	1	0.59mi
242 Serena Dr Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1347	$5,300	$3.93	45d	1	0.60mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $755 · $9,060/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $499,000 Active 186 DOM
2. 2026-03-27
   price $509,000 958-char remark

   Show marketing remark (958 chars)

   * * HUGE PRICE IMPROVEMENT * * Seller says SELL this weekend! Sought-after stunning Double - Fairway Mountain View condo located behind the gates of Rancho Las Palmas Country Club! This highly upgraded contemporary 2-bedroom, 2-bath home features excellent bedroom separation, high vaulted ceilings, designer chef's kitchen, rare fireplace complemented with glass rock all within an open luxurious floorplan. The master design front courtyard with mountain and fairway views is complemented with your own high end Jacuzzi with privacy, professional designed landscape with pavers and serene lighting. You'll find pickle ball, tennis and 3 golf courses right at your finger tips. Great social membership too! The OMNI resort and SPA is just a short walk away as well as the RIVER with shopping, dining and more! Look no further as you have just found your NEW desert home in the heart of Rancho Mirage! . Furnishing are available for you to move right in!

3. 2026-01-08
   price $529,000 958-char remark

   Show marketing remark (958 chars)

   * * HUGE PRICE IMPROVEMENT * * Seller says SELL this weekend! Sought-after stunning Double - Fairway Mountain View condo located behind the gates of Rancho Las Palmas Country Club! This highly upgraded contemporary 2-bedroom, 2-bath home features excellent bedroom separation, high vaulted ceilings, designer chef's kitchen, rare fireplace complemented with glass rock all within an open luxurious floorplan. The master design front courtyard with mountain and fairway views is complemented with your own high end Jacuzzi with privacy, professional designed landscape with pavers and serene lighting. You'll find pickle ball, tennis and 3 golf courses right at your finger tips. Great social membership too! The OMNI resort and SPA is just a short walk away as well as the RIVER with shopping, dining and more! Look no further as you have just found your NEW desert home in the heart of Rancho Mirage! . Furnishing are available for you to move right in!

4. 2025-11-24
   listed $574,900 Active 958-char remark

   Show marketing remark (958 chars)

   * * HUGE PRICE IMPROVEMENT * * Seller says SELL this weekend! Sought-after stunning Double - Fairway Mountain View condo located behind the gates of Rancho Las Palmas Country Club! This highly upgraded contemporary 2-bedroom, 2-bath home features excellent bedroom separation, high vaulted ceilings, designer chef's kitchen, rare fireplace complemented with glass rock all within an open luxurious floorplan. The master design front courtyard with mountain and fairway views is complemented with your own high end Jacuzzi with privacy, professional designed landscape with pavers and serene lighting. You'll find pickle ball, tennis and 3 golf courses right at your finger tips. Great social membership too! The OMNI resort and SPA is just a short walk away as well as the RIVER with shopping, dining and more! Look no further as you have just found your NEW desert home in the heart of Rancho Mirage! . Furnishing are available for you to move right in!

5. 2012-07-10
   status Pending 265-char remark

   Show marketing remark (265 chars)

   TAKE A SECOND LOOK! I am beautifully updated and turnkey furnished. New furnishings, smooth ceilings, freshly painted walls and kitchen cabinets. Best price and location in Rancho Las Palmas. Two patios to enjoy fairways from each direction. This home is a delight.

6. 2012-07-06
   soldstatus $220,000 Closed 265-char remark

   Show marketing remark (265 chars)

   TAKE A SECOND LOOK! I am beautifully updated and turnkey furnished. New furnishings, smooth ceilings, freshly painted walls and kitchen cabinets. Best price and location in Rancho Las Palmas. Two patios to enjoy fairways from each direction. This home is a delight.

7. 2012-07-06
   soldstatus $220,000

   Show marketing remark (265 chars)

   TAKE A SECOND LOOK! I am beautifully updated and turnkey furnished. New furnishings, smooth ceilings, freshly painted walls and kitchen cabinets. Best price and location in Rancho Las Palmas. Two patios to enjoy fairways from each direction. This home is a delight.

8. 2012-06-01
   status Backup Offers Accepted 265-char remark

   Show marketing remark (265 chars)

   TAKE A SECOND LOOK! I am beautifully updated and turnkey furnished. New furnishings, smooth ceilings, freshly painted walls and kitchen cabinets. Best price and location in Rancho Las Palmas. Two patios to enjoy fairways from each direction. This home is a delight.

9. 2012-02-24
   price $238,500 265-char remark

   Show marketing remark (265 chars)

   TAKE A SECOND LOOK! I am beautifully updated and turnkey furnished. New furnishings, smooth ceilings, freshly painted walls and kitchen cabinets. Best price and location in Rancho Las Palmas. Two patios to enjoy fairways from each direction. This home is a delight.

10. 2011-10-14
    listed $239,000 Active 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    TAKE A SECOND LOOK! I am beautifully updated and turnkey furnished. New furnishings, smooth ceilings, freshly painted walls and kitchen cabinets. Best price and location in Rancho Las Palmas. Two patios to enjoy fairways from each direction. This home is a delight.

11. 2011-06-06
    historical
12. 2011-04-16
    listed $258,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,878 · $323/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,878 · $323/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,850
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$3,878
• − Insurance: −$2,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,708
• − Management: −$4,708
• − HOA: −$9,060
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable loss: −$8,467
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,032
• After-tax cash flow: $1,689/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desert Sands Unified
• NCES district ID: 0611110
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,957
• Composite: 37.77/100
• National rank: #4346
• State rank: #199 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rancho Mirage

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1065
• US rank: #25255

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Mirage, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 17,563
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,563
• Household income: $107,364
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 498.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -210.99%
• Current HPI: 282.2957
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.72%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+96.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $509,000 GPSMLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $529,000 GPSMLS
• 2025-11-24 Listed $574,900 GPSMLS
• 2012-07-10 Pending — GPSMLS
• 2012-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2012-07-06 Sold (MLS) $220,000 GPSMLS
• 2012-06-01 Pending — GPSMLS
• 2012-02-24 Price Changed $238,500 GPSMLS
• 2011-10-14 Listed $239,000 GPSMLS
• 2011-06-06 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2011-04-16 Listed $258,500 GPSMLS

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,878 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.