8730 Sunset Dr · Harris Hill, NY 14221

$299,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,520 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1940 8,559 sqft lot Est $324k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a Clarence home under $300,000? The wait is over! Situated on a huge corner lot with a two-car garage and extra-wide driveway, this charming home offers endless potential in the highly desirable Clarence School District. Inside, you’ll find original hardwood floors, an eat-in kitchen, and plenty of opportunity to add your own personal touches and make it truly yours. The 3rd bedroom is extra large and hosts a large closet space with privacy on its own floor. The front awning creates the perfect spot to enjoy quiet summer mornings with a cup of coffee, while the spacious driveway makes hosting friends and family easy. The yard is just waiting for parties, games and summer a

Key facts

• Extra-wide driveway
• Eat-in kitchen
• Large closet space

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• TWO-CAR GARAGE
• EXTRA-WIDE DRIVEWAY
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• LARGE CLOSET SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Gas water heater
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Poured foundation; Vinyl siding exterior; Existing (previously built) construction
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Irregular residential lot with 166 x 51 dimensions; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6 (includes living and laundry areas)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Egress windows in basement; Partial finished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-374/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.7% in Harris Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#345 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Clarence Central School District (suburban): math 70% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #94 of 590 in NY (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Harris Hill Elementary School (math 82% / reading 77%, grade A, #188 of 2,108 statewide, top 11%, 464 students, 21% FRL); Clarence Middle School (math 47% / reading 73%, grade B, #157 of 729 statewide, top 22%, 972 students, 18% FRL); Clarence Senior High School (math 100% / reading 77%, grade A, #299 of 1,100 statewide, top 27%, 1,284 students, 17% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $210k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $252,062 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.45%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $323,760
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4314 Shimerville Rd	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,506 (-1%)	8mo	$270,000	$179	66
4274 Trailing Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,542 (+1%)	12mo	$355,000	$230	64
4111 Circle Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,732 (+14%)	2mo	$327,000	$189	63
4441 E Overlook Dr	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,524 (+0%)	8mo	$235,000	$154	63
4226 Shimerville Rd	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,638 (+8%)	10mo	$259,900	$159	57
4334 Connection Dr	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,351 (-11%)	11mo	$303,000	$224	54
4255 Roxbury Dr	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,385 (-9%)	11mo	$360,000	$260	53
4343 Cameron Dr	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,397 (-8%)	10mo	$280,000	$200	44
4277 Wildwood Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,736 (+14%)	18mo	$405,000	$233	37
8591 Sunset Dr	0.26mi	2/3.5 (-1)	1,735 (+14%)	16mo	$370,000	$213	36
4411 Overlook Dr	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,350 (-11%)	20mo	$285,000	$211	35
4416 Harris Hill Rd	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,662 (+9%)	20mo	$400,000	$241	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-45,376
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-19,807
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14221

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,521 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$325 /mo · $3,898/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $-31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,560

Max offer price $294,392

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $139	-5% $54	+0% $-31	+5% $-116	+10% $-201
Rent	-10% $-230	-5% $-131	+0% $-31	+5% $68	+10% $168
Rate	-1.0pp $120	-0.5pp $45	base $-31	+0.5pp $-109	+1.0pp $-188

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4289 Harris Hill Rd Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1902	$2,500	$1.31	17d	1	0.51mi
4100 Stonegate Ln Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.5	1531	$2,691	$1.76	3d	1	1.00mi
4241 Capstone Cir Williamsville, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$2,604	$2.33	3d	8	1.05mi
4045 Coventry Green Cir Williamsville, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$2,312	$2.26	3d	8	1.13mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,900 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,900 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,900 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,900 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-05-24
    listed $299,900 Active
17. 2022-12-06
    soldstatus $210,000
18. 1998-06-12
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,898 · $325/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,483 · $374/mo
• Expected delta: +$585/yr (+$49/mo · 15.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,247
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$3,898
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,420
• − Management: −$2,420
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$5,513
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,323
• After-tax cash flow: $949/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clarence Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607590
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,568
• Composite: 64.85/100
• National rank: #514
• State rank: #94 of 590 in NY

Livability — Harris Hill

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #345
• US rank: #5816

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harris Hill, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 55,255
• Household income: $101,615
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1956.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 8% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -301.37%
• Current HPI: 322.6947
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.01%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+328.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $299,900 WNYREIS
• 2022-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 1998-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,898 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.