1718 Thunderbird Dr · McKinleyville, CA 95519

$55,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 890 sqft · Manufactured · 6 Days on market

Built 1989

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Accepted continent offer with seller right to cancel with 3 day notice. Ready to be moved into with lots of light and cheerful! This super cozy home includes breakfast bar and a dining area, spacious master suite. Attached carport makes leaving and going from the home on a rainy day much easier. This senior park is walking distance to the McKinleyville shopping center, transit, park and the senior center. Thunderbird Estates is a 55+ and older Park and Park approved required for all buyer.

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Attached carport
• Public transit

Tags

• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• DEDICATED DINING AREA
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY SUITE
• ATTACHED CARPORT
• PUBLIC TRANSIT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Circuit breaker electrical panel; Underground utilities; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected/available; Phone available
• Home design: Residential single family home
• Construction: Block foundation; Shingle roof; Mobile home make: SKYLINE, model OKM 6504 OAKMANOR; Located in Thunderbird park
• Exterior features: Porch; Partial fencing; Level lot; Concrete and paved road access; Located in a park

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Range hood
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other rooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry sink

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Cap rate 32.0% vs local median 2.7% in McKinleyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,028 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools D.
• Mckinleyville Union Elementary (town): math 34% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #789 of 1,400 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 188 units permitted in Humboldt County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Humboldt County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $55,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 91.90%
• DSCR: 5.09
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 92.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.30×
• Total profit: $66,213
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 95.5%
• Equity multiple: 11.03×
• Total profit: $154,413
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95519

• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,929 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $395/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $1,179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $436

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,211	-5% $1,195	+0% $1,179	+5% $1,164	+10% $1,148
Rent	-10% $1,027	-5% $1,103	+0% $1,179	+5% $1,256	+10% $1,332
Rate	-1.0pp $1,207	-0.5pp $1,193	base $1,179	+0.5pp $1,165	+1.0pp $1,151

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2345 Bates Ln Unit 3 McKinleyville, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,400	$1.67	44d	1	0.52mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-29
   listed $55,000 Active
3. 2015-09-30
   soldstatus $42,000 494-char remark

   Show marketing remark (494 chars)

   Accepted continent offer with seller right to cancel with 3 day notice. Ready to be moved into with lots of light and cheerful! This super cozy home includes breakfast bar and a dining area, spacious master suite. Attached carport makes leaving and going from the home on a rainy day much easier. This senior park is walking distance to the McKinleyville shopping center, transit, park and the senior center. Thunderbird Estates is a 55+ and older Park and Park approved required for all buyer.

4. 2015-05-26
   listed $45,000 494-char remark

   Show marketing remark (494 chars)

   Accepted continent offer with seller right to cancel with 3 day notice. Ready to be moved into with lots of light and cheerful! This super cozy home includes breakfast bar and a dining area, spacious master suite. Attached carport makes leaving and going from the home on a rainy day much easier. This senior park is walking distance to the McKinleyville shopping center, transit, park and the senior center. Thunderbird Estates is a 55+ and older Park and Park approved required for all buyer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $395 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $418 · $35/mo
• Expected delta: +$23/yr (+$2/mo · 5.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 9 d/yr ≥72°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,145
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$395
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,852
• − Management: −$1,852
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $14,091
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,382
• After-tax cash flow: $10,771/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mckinleyville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0624300
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,399
• Composite: 35.18/100
• National rank: #9872
• State rank: #789 of 1400 in CA

Livability — McKinleyville

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1028
• US rank: #25015

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: McKinleyville, CA
• County: Humboldt County · 88,652 people
• City population: 18,728
• Metro: Eureka-Arcata, CA
• Population (ZIP): 18,728
• Household income: $73,280
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 730.0

Population outlook (Humboldt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 135,550 people
• By 2030: 134,798 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 132,222 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 130,850 · -3.5%
• By 2075: 128,656 · -5.1%
• By 2100: 120,238 · -11.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 11% Native American 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Humboldt

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.4) · D 62.0% · R 33.6% · Other 4.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 28.2pp · 2024: 28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.4 2020: D+33.4 2016: D+25.9 2012: D+26.2 2008: D+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -385.83%
• Current HPI: 197.0133
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Eureka-Arcata, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+22.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — HAR
• 2026-04-29 Listed $55,000 HAR
• 2015-09-30 Sold (MLS) $42,000 HAR
• 2015-05-26 Listed $45,000 HAR

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $395 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.