20181 Cumberland Ct · Estero, FL 33928

$151,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 408 sqft · Manufactured public records · 374 Days on market

Built 1986 1,960 sqft lot $297/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

TURNKEY PET FRIENDLY! Discover your dream retreat in this delightful charming cottage-style mobile home, nestled in the highly sought after land owned Riverwoods Plantation, a vibrant 55+ amenity-rich community. This rarely available pet-friendly home features soft, bright cottage colors and decor that create a warm and inviting atmosphere. Driveway will accommodate larger vehicle, AND close proximity to the clubhouse. Enjoy a spacious layout perfect for entertaining, with a great location that enhances your outdoor lifestyle. The outdoor space is truly exceptional, offering 3 sitting areas with nice outdoor furniture creating an oasis-like feel and unparalleled privacy, ideal for relaxing

Key facts

• Boat storage
• Estero river
• Gulf

Tags

• OUTDOOR SPACE
• BOAT STORAGE
• ESTERO RIVER
• ESTERO BAY
• GULF
• AMENITY-RICH COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a large complex with 640 units; single unit building; Zoning code: RV; Lot described as regular on a private road; acreage approx 0.045
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Master HOA fee $890 quarterly (total annual recurring fees $3,560); Total one-time fees $250; Community amenities include: clubhouse, community pool and spa/hot tub, exercise room, tennis, basketball, pickleball, bocce, shuffleboard, volleyball, billiards, library, hobby room, common laundry, extra storage, boat storage, community boat ramp, fish cleaning station, dog park, internet access, underground utilities, street lights, street maintenance, lawn/land maintenance, trash removal, sewer and water, manager, reserve, legal/accounting, vehicle wash area

Exterior

• Parking: 1 assigned parking space; Private road access
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Electric service (central)
• Home design: Manufactured residential home; Single-story; Rear exposure faces east; Located in the Riverwoods Plantation community
• Construction: Built in 1986; Vinyl siding exterior; Roof over
• Exterior features: Patio; Landscaped view; Boat ramp and water available at dock (community); See remarks for windows

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator/Freezer
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms with a split-bedroom floor plan
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; Master bathroom with shower only
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Ceiling fans for cooling; Cable available
• Interior features: Cable prewire; Turnkey
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in residence; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $151k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-716/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (5.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $151k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heights Elementary School (math 74% / reading 67%, grade A-, #333 of 2,144 statewide, top 16%, 1,109 students, 38% FRL); Lexington Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,138 students, 44% FRL); South Fort Myers High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,917 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 374 days — a 12% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $151k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→32/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,880 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 374 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.19%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-33,017
• Equity at exit: $22,515

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-51,947
• Equity at exit: $13,056

Cash invested: $42,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,705 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$792
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$189 /mo · $2,265/yr
• Insurance: −$63
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$297
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $-60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,781

Max offer price $142,368

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $45	-5% $-7	+0% $-60	+5% $-112	+10% $-164
Rent	-10% $-194	-5% $-127	+0% $-60	+5% $8	+10% $75
Rate	-1.0pp $16	-0.5pp $-21	base $-60	+0.5pp $-99	+1.0pp $-139

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,750
• Closing costs: $4,530
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $297 · $3,564/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $151,000 Active 374 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $151,000 Active 373 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $151,000 Active 372 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $151,000 Active 370 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $151,000 Active 366 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $151,000 Active 364 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $151,000 Active 359 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $151,000 Active 358 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $151,000 Active 357 DOM
10. 2026-02-21
    price $151,000
11. 2026-01-16
    price $157,900
12. 2025-11-20
    price $164,500
13. 2025-10-02
    status Active
14. 2025-06-01
    listed $167,000 Active
15. 2000-04-26
    soldstatus $66,000
16. 1990-04-13
    soldstatus $58,000
17. 1985-02-01
    soldstatus $19,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 32 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,466
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,458
• − Property taxes: −$2,265
• − Insurance: −$1,552
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,637
• − Management: −$1,637
• − HOA: −$3,564
• − Depreciation: −$4,393
• Taxable loss: −$3,041
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$730
• After-tax cash flow: $14/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estero, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+674.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $151,000 BEARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $157,900 BEARMLS
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $164,500 BEARMLS
• 2025-10-02 Relisted — BEARMLS
• 2025-06-01 Listed $167,000 BEARMLS
• 2000-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records
• 1990-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 1985-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $19,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-16.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $103 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.