121 Trillium Ln · Lake Monticello, VA 22974

$340,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,704 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2019 0.48 ac lot Est $382k · 11% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Sycamore Landing — a walkable, private community just 25 minutes from Charlottesville, where neighbors stroll with dogs and strollers & geese drift by the community pond. This inviting home greets you with ornate curb appeal and oversized windows that bathe every room in natural light. Inside, a massive living room and flexible bonus room (currently a playroom but ideal as a formal dining room, home office, or studio) give you space and flexibility to live on your own terms. The eat-in kitchen features a large pantry, and breakfast bar. All bedrooms are conveniently located on the same level upstairs. The primary suite impresses with expansive vanity space, a walk-in

Key facts

• 0.48 acre lot
• Built 2019
• Listed 7 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $747 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $340k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.6% in Lake Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#284 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fluvanna County Public School District (rural): math 61% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #34 of 131 in VA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary (715 students, 52% FRL); Fluvanna Middle (math 65% / reading 70%, grade A-, #98 of 342 statewide, top 30%, 763 students, 42% FRL); Fluvanna County High (math 60% / reading 76%, grade B, #180 of 319 statewide, top 57%, 1,488 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 23% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 138 units permitted in Fluvanna County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $95k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $340,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.41%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $381,696
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 Trillium Ln	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,623 (-5%)	1mo	$340,000	$209	89
58 Trillium Ln	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,720 (+1%)	17mo	$385,000	$224	79
101 Trillium Ln	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,708 (+0%)	23mo	$385,000	$225	78
103 Indigo Ln	0.18mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,636 (-4%)	14mo	$350,000	$214	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $232,665
• Equity at exit: $306,299

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.80×
• Total profit: $647,612
• Equity at exit: $660,545

Cash invested: $95,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22974

• Home prices YoY: 12.0%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,658 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,317/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$768
• Net cashflow: $747

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,712

Max offer price $340,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $939	-5% $843	+0% $747	+5% $651	+10% $554
Rent	-10% $458	-5% $602	+0% $747	+5% $891	+10% $1,036
Rate	-1.0pp $918	-0.5pp $833	base $747	+0.5pp $659	+1.0pp $569

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,000
• Closing costs: $10,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   listed $340,000 Active
3. 2026-03-25
   price $340,000
4. 2026-03-24
   historical $339,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,317 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,788 · $232/mo
• Expected delta: +$471/yr (+$39/mo · 20.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,891
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,045
• − Property taxes: −$2,317
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,511
• − Management: −$3,511
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$9,891
• Taxable income: $3,616
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$868
• After-tax cash flow: $8,094/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fluvanna County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101380
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,601
• Composite: 57.6/100
• National rank: #1065
• State rank: #34 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lake Monticello

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #284
• US rank: #10173

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,123

Population outlook (Fluvanna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,237 people
• By 2030: 27,607 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 28,075 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 28,019 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 28,058 · +3.0%
• By 2100: 26,124 · -4.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 14% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fluvanna

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.3) · D 46.4% · R 52.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -1.8pp · 2024: -6.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.3 2020: R+4.7 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+6.2 2008: R+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 37.70%
• Current HPI: 351.8003
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+0.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — CAAR
• 2026-03-25 Listed $340,000 CAAR
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $340,000 CAAR
• 2026-03-24 Coming Soon $339,000 CAAR

Property tax history

+20.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,317 · +12.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.