406 Shankle Rd · Commerce, GA 30529

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 696 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1936 0.27 ac lot Est $159k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.4/5.0

Listing remarks

Pre-foreclosure opportunity in City of Commerce, Jackson County. Charming bungalow-delivering the ease of one-level living. Step into a light-filled living room that flows into a large, open kitchen with granite countertops. Two comfortable bedrooms and a bathroom. Need extra space? An approx 140 sq ft unfinished utility room is ideal for storage, laundry, and gear.

Key facts

• One-level living
• Granite countertops
• Large open kitchen

Tags

• ONE-LEVEL LIVING
• LIGHT-FILLED LIVING ROOM
• LARGE OPEN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.27 acres; Property listed as a fixer
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Side/rear entrance
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer (sewer connected); Electric service
• Home design: Single-family house; Residential property; One story; Built in 1936; Listed as fixer condition; Located in Shankle Estate subdivision; Street address: 406 Shankle Road, Commerce, GA 30529
• Construction: Press board construction; Block foundation; Composition roof; Double-pane windows
• Exterior features: Porch; Level, grassed lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast area; Country-style kitchen; Solid surface counters; Dishwasher; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric central heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: One-level layout; Family room; Mud room; Crawl space basement; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area (listed separately); Mud room provides laundry/utility access; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $296 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.3% in Commerce — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#271 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Commerce City (town): math 49% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #19 of 174 in GA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Commerce Middle School (math 44% / reading 51%, grade C-, #84 of 470 statewide, top 19%, 530 students, 56% FRL); Commerce High School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #37 of 424 statewide, top 9%, 493 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.2%/yr); 151 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,167 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (59 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jackson County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $102k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1936 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1936 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.59%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $158,688
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
111 S Victoria St	0.52mi	2/1.0	720 (+3%)	18mo	$164,000	$228	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $80,349
• Equity at exit: $108,106

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.39×
• Total profit: $214,805
• Equity at exit: $233,134

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30529

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Rents YoY: -4.2%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,314 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $749/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $296

Break-even live

Break-even rent $939

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1736 N Broad St Unit 201 Commerce, GA	1.0	1.0	676	$1,300	$1.92	43d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $120,000 Under Contract 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 New 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 New 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 New 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 368-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $120,000 New 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $749 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,104 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$355/yr (+$30/mo · 47.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,769
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$749
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,261
• − Management: −$1,261
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $1,684
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$404
• After-tax cash flow: $3,153/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Commerce City
• NCES district ID: 1301440
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $40,945
• Composite: 41.1/100
• National rank: #3567
• State rank: #19 of 174 in GA

Livability — Commerce

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #271
• US rank: #14693

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Commerce, GA
• County: Jackson County · 50,436 people
• City population: 12,874
• Metro: Jefferson, GA
• Population (ZIP): 12,874
• Household income: $62,168
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 297.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,403 people
• By 2030: 70,771 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 75,050 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 78,022 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 82,646 · +20.8%
• By 2100: 80,701 · +18.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.1) · D 22.2% · R 77.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.8pp no change · 2008: -55.9pp · 2024: -55.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.1 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+63.9 2012: R+62.9 2008: R+55.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.53%
• Current HPI: 458.5304
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.25%
• Metro: Jefferson, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+500.0% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $120,000 GAMLS
• 2026-02-28 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-02-11 Contingent — GAMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $114,900 GAMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-10-09 Listed $140,000 GAMLS
• 2019-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $101,900 Public Records
• 2019-12-20 Sold (MLS) $101,900 GAMLS
• 2019-12-02 Pending — GAMLS
• 2019-11-23 Price Changed $98,900 GAMLS
• 2019-11-12 Price Changed $99,900 GAMLS
• 2019-11-04 Price Changed $104,900 GAMLS
• 2019-10-14 Listed $109,900 GAMLS
• 2019-04-19 Sold (MLS) $40,000 GAMLS
• 2019-04-19 Sold (MLS) $40,000 FMLS
• 2019-04-02 Pending — GAMLS
• 2019-04-02 Pending — FMLS
• 2019-03-08 Price Changed $64,900 GAMLS
• 2019-03-07 Price Changed $64,900 FMLS
• 2019-02-16 Price Changed $74,900 GAMLS
• 2019-02-01 Price Changed $74,900 FMLS
• 2019-01-17 Listed $79,900 FMLS
• 2018-12-05 Listed $79,900 GAMLS
• 2010-01-25 Sold (MLS) $20,000 FMLS
• 2010-01-19 Listing Removed — FMLS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $749 · +19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.