Frio Plan · Crosby, TX 77532

$238,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,362 sqft · SingleFamily · 257 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Frio floor plan is as exciting for its features as it is for the tremendous value. A package of dynamite, this home boasts three bedrooms, two walk-in closets and two baths joined with a huge family room and a large kitchen/dining area. Upon entry of the home, you are met with access to your two-car garage. If you are needing the extra storage space, you are able to opt for an extra 1/2-car garage! You are then guided to the heart of the home - the sizable family room that faces the kitchen. This layout is ideal for hosting gatherings for all your friends and family. Opening up to the family room is your conveniently-designed kitchen and breakfast/dining room combination with entry to your walk-in utility room. The kitchen area is equipped with exclusive features like granite countertops, designer light fixtures, and flat-panel birch cabinets - these features alone are sure to please any crowd! Leading to your backyard from the breakfast/dining area, you can decide to include a covered patio if you like to get a breath of fresh air while being protected from the weather. The three large bedrooms are the perfect size for your family or guests when they come to visit. The second and third bedrooms are placed at the front of the home, with the third bedroom boasting a walk-in closet. The secondary bathroom lies conveniently between the two bedrooms. If you are looking to find the balance between work and play with a designated area to get things done, opt to transform the. ..

Key facts

• Walk-in closets
• Huge family room
• Walk-in utility room

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• HUGE FAMILY ROOM
• LARGE KITCHEN DINING AREA
• CONVENIENTLY DESIGNED KITCHEN
• WALK-IN UTILITY ROOM
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

🏗️ New construction. The $238,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $274,367.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-598 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (21.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (31.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 4.7% in Crosby — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1919 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 35d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 257 days — a 12% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,329 (31.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 257 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.34%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,367
• List price: $238,990
• Delta: -12.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14206 Alpine Fir Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,403 (+3%)	4mo	$234,600	$167	89
922 Alaska Cedar Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,362 (0%)	11mo	$235,733	$173	84
910 Alaska Cedar Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,362 (0%)	19mo	$248,000	$182	81
514 Sacred Fig Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,362 (0%)	16mo	$265,294	$195	79
14214 Beach Pine Trl	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,493 (+10%)	2mo	$229,000	$153	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-84,990
• Equity at exit: $40,909

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.73×
• Total profit: $-132,795
• Equity at exit: $23,722

Cash invested: $76,823 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 3 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.5 mo (22%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $257,990 ($166/sqft)
• Median days on market: 190 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +21.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1919
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,643 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,439
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$343 /mo · $4,116/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-598

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,400

Max offer price $187,851

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-408	-5% $-503	+0% $-598	+5% $-693	+10% $-788
Rent	-10% $-728	-5% $-663	+0% $-598	+5% $-533	+10% $-468
Rate	-1.0pp $-460	-0.5pp $-528	base $-598	+0.5pp $-669	+1.0pp $-741

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,592
• Closing costs: $8,231
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2719 3rd St Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1038	$1,425	$1.37	34d	1	0.94mi
2719 3rd St Huffman, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$1,495	$0.95	51d	1	0.94mi
2719 3rd St Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1038	$1,425	$1.37	7d	1	0.94mi
15016 Farm to Market 2100 Unit 01 Crosby, TX	2.0	1.0	919	$1,280	$1.39	71d	1	0.99mi
15016 Farm to Market 2100 Apt 28 Crosby, TX	2.0	1.0	919	$1,010	$1.10	114d	1	0.99mi
15016 Farm to Market 2100 Apt 3 Crosby, TX	2.0	1.0	919	$1,210	$1.32	10d	1	0.99mi
15016 FM 2100 Rd #32 Crosby, TX	2.0	1.0	919	$940	$1.02	0d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $238,990 Active 257 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $238,990 Active 256 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $238,990 Active 255 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $238,990 Active 254 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $238,990 Active 253 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $238,990 Active 251 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $238,990 Active 250 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $238,990 Active 249 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $238,990 Active 248 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $238,990 Active 247 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $238,990 Active 246 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $238,990 Active 245 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $238,990 Active 244 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $238,990 Active 243 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $238,990 Active 242 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $238,990 Active 241 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $238,990 Active 240 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $238,990 Active 239 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $238,990 Active 238 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $238,990 Active 237 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $238,990 Active 236 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $238,990 Active 235 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $238,990 Active 234 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $238,990 Active 233 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $238,990 Active 232 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $238,990 Active 231 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $238,990 Active 230 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $238,990 Active 229 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $238,990 Active 228 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $238,990 Active 227 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $238,990 Active 226 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $238,990 Active 225 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $238,990 Active 224 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $238,990 Active 223 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $238,990 Active 222 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $238,990 Active 221 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $238,990 Active 220 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $238,990 Active 219 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $238,990 Active 218 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $238,990 Active 217 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $238,990 Active 216 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $238,990 Active 215 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $238,990 Active 214 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $238,990 Active 213 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $238,990 Active 212 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $238,990 Active 211 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $238,990 Active 210 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $238,990 Active 209 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $238,990 Active 208 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $238,990 Active 207 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,369
• − Property taxes: −$4,116
• − Insurance: −$1,372
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,578
• − Management: −$1,578
• − Depreciation: −$7,982
• Taxable loss: −$12,273
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,946
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,229/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,810–$20,430 screening

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minor maintenance. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior trim and replacing the ceiling fan.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value. ↑
• Rental Replace ceiling fan — Improves comfort and can attract renters looking for a well-maintained home. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

High Crosby H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 33,780
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $238,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-24 Listed $239,990 Zillow