308 310 E Arcadia Ave · Dawson Springs, KY 42408

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,612 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 130 Days on market

Built 1950 2.50 ac lot Est $134k · 7% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

This versatile 2.5-acre property is ideally positioned in a prime, central location in the heart of Dawson Springs and is zoned commercial, offering exceptional potential for a wide range of business or investment opportunities. With prominent frontage along E Arcadia Ave and access extending through to Hickory Street on the next block, the property provides excellent visibility, accessibility, and flexibility—key factors for attracting both customers and future development possibilities. Adding to its appeal, the rear of the property borders the local high school, creating consistent nearby traffic and increased exposure. The location is truly optimal—right in town and within c

Key facts

• Excellent visibility
• Zoned commercial
• 2.5 acre lot

Tags

• PRIME CENTRAL LOCATION
• ZONED COMMERCIAL
• FRONTAGE ALONG E ARCADIA AVE
• EXCELLENT VISIBILITY
• SEPARATE COMMERCIAL BUILDING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single-story
• Exterior features: Approximately 2.5 acre lot; Directions: Heading east on E Arcadia Ave, property is on the right

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Forced air heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $217 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#207 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Dawson Springs Independent (rural): math 22% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #148 of 165 in KY (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 122 units permitted in Hopkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hopkins County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.45%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $133,796
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
403 S Main St	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,520 (-6%)	4mo	$90,000	$59	66
197 Park Ave	0.39mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,588 (-2%)	10mo	$90,144	$57	62
505 Lynch St	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,545 (-4%)	23mo	$115,000	$74	50
815 E Walnut St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,515 (-6%)	14mo	$162,000	$107	43
480 Oak Hts	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,454 (-10%)	18mo	$148,000	$102	35
402 Lynch St	0.43mi	3/3.0	1,836 (+14%)	23mo	$153,000	$83	34
214 Hamby Ave	0.48mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,416 (-12%)	24mo	$125,000	$88	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-6,449
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $12,095
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42408

• Home prices YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,279 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,028/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $217

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,004

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $288	-5% $253	+0% $217	+5% $182	+10% $146
Rent	-10% $116	-5% $167	+0% $217	+5% $268	+10% $318
Rate	-1.0pp $280	-0.5pp $249	base $217	+0.5pp $185	+1.0pp $152

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 110 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 109 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    price $125,000
18. 2026-05-08
    price $127,000
19. 2026-04-27
    price $130,000
20. 2026-03-20
    price $133,000
21. 2026-03-12
    price $135,000
22. 2026-03-03
    price $140,000
23. 2026-02-19
    price $145,000
24. 2026-02-10
    listed $155,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,028 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,075 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$47/yr (+$4/mo · 4.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,348
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,028
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,228
• − Management: −$1,228
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $601
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$144
• After-tax cash flow: $2,462/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dawson Springs Independent
• NCES district ID: 2101500
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $26,043
• Composite: 20.16/100
• National rank: #8635
• State rank: #148 of 165 in KY

Livability — Dawson Springs

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #10195

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dawson Springs, KY
• City population: 6,167
• Population (ZIP): 6,167

Population outlook (Hopkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,164 people
• By 2030: 44,083 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 41,650 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 39,303 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 34,567 · -23.5%
• By 2100: 29,476 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Hopkins

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.9) · D 23.9% · R 74.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -24.9pp · 2024: -50.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.9 2020: R+48.0 2016: R+54.0 2012: R+39.9 2008: R+24.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.70%
• Current HPI: 240.3026
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-19.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $125,000 HABOR
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $127,000 HABOR
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $130,000 HABOR
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $133,000 HABOR
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $135,000 HABOR
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $140,000 HABOR
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $145,000 HABOR
• 2026-02-10 Listed $155,900 HABOR

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,028 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.