2629 Dowling · West Orange, TX 77630

$115,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,378 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1950 0.31 ac lot Est $149k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

AN INVESTOR MUST SEE!!! THIS PRECIOUS 3/1/1 COTTAGE HOME SITS ON 2 LOTS IN WEST ORANGE. THIS HOUSE IS FULL OF POTENTIAL! THE LARGE KITCHEN FEATURES NEW CABINETS, FRENCH DOORS, AND LOTS OF NATURAL LIGHT! LARGE BACK YARD! INSIDE UTILITY ROOM! THERE IS CURRENTLY ONLY ONE LARGE BATHROOM, BUT IT COULD EASILY BE CONVERTED INTO TWO. PRICED TO SELL, SO DON'T WAIT TILL ITS TOO LATE!

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Patio area
• 0.31 acre lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• PATIO AREA
• SLAB FOR STORAGE BUILDING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Carport (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Stone exterior
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Chain link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Tile flooring; Ceiling fans

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $116k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-138 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $92k (21.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $116k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,075 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A; Watch: crime C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• West Orange-Cove CISD (suburban): math 17% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #784 of 826 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($801 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,575 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.68%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $148,824
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
714 Sherrill St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+9%)	9mo	$190,000	$126	65
2911 Kelly St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,392 (+1%)	18mo	$149,900	$108	55
2707 Terrace Cir	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,289 (-6%)	10mo	$169,999	$132	54
1524 Longhorn Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,296 (-6%)	8mo	$139,900	$108	48
2705 Terrace Cir	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,240 (-10%)	9mo	$139,900	$113	47
1826 Bowie St	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,434 (+4%)	19mo	$138,000	$96	43
1905 Crockett St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,572 (+14%)	14mo	$139,999	$89	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.01% appreciation · 5.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,237
• Equity at exit: $39,626

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $27,201
• Equity at exit: $52,706

Cash invested: $32,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77630

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,429 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$608
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,206/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $-138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,603

Max offer price $91,575

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,975
• Closing costs: $3,477
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2810 Gandy St West Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1613	$1,700	$1.05	43d	1	0.16mi
1543 Alamo St West Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1170	$1,200	$1.03	13d	1	0.49mi
309 Quincy St West Orange, TX	3.0	1.5	1113	$1,200	$1.08	13d	1	0.56mi
406 Dayton St West Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1350	$1,200	$0.89	43d	1	0.89mi
2602 Tanglewood St West Orange, TX	4.0	2.0	1306	$1,250	$0.96	13d	1	1.01mi
205 Gloria St West Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1225	$1,300	$1.06	43d	1	1.01mi
206 Florence St Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1216	$1,425	$1.17	43d	1	1.03mi
210 Florence St Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,425	$1.34	43d	1	1.05mi
101 Azalea Ave Unit A Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	43d	1	1.33mi
302 Bridal Wreath Ave Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1182	$1,195	$1.01	43d	1	1.33mi
306 Bridal Wreath Ave Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1529	$1,195	$0.78	21d	1	1.34mi
107 Dahlia St Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1149	$1,300	$1.13	13d	1	1.34mi
3726 Bowling Ln Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1045	$1,150	$1.10	43d	1	1.36mi
3000 MacArthur Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	791	$1,330	$1.68	13d	12	1.36mi
1208 DuPont Dr Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	13d	1	1.39mi
403 Bluebonnet Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1196	$1,300	$1.09	43d	1	1.41mi
310 Camellia Ave Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	988	$1,295	$1.31	21d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 334-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $115,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,206 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,206 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,146
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,492
• − Property taxes: −$2,206
• − Insurance: −$5,698
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,372
• − Management: −$1,372
• − Depreciation: −$3,372
• Taxable loss: −$3,365
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$808
• After-tax cash flow: $-845/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Orange-Cove CISD
• NCES district ID: 4845090
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $37,329
• Composite: 15.86/100
• National rank: #9260
• State rank: #784 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Orange

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1075
• US rank: #19069

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Orange, TX
• County: Orange County · 87,112 people
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,983
• Household income: $64,373
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1018.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,065 people
• By 2030: 89,591 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 91,982 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 93,023 · +5.6%
• By 2075: 94,871 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 88,155 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.4% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+54.3 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.01%
• Current HPI: 264.14
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.71%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+144.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $115,900 BBOR
• 2025-07-13 Rental Removed $1,500 Avail
• 2025-07-09 Listed for Rent $1,500 Avail
• 2020-02-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-02-24 Sold (MLS) — PNPANBOR
• 2020-02-24 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2020-02-05 Listed $47,500 BBOR
• 2020-02-02 Listed $47,500 PNPANBOR
• 2011-09-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,206 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.