34445 Countryside Dr · Wesley Chapel, FL 33543

$187,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,012 sqft · Manufactured public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1985 4,052 sqft lot Est $137k · 37% over $217/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

RESORT COMMUNITY !!! Amazing Wesley Chapel Location !!! This Fantastic Home Has Been Remodeled W/ New Window, Doors, Engineered Laminate Flooring, Amazing Kitchen With Wood Cabinetry, Stone Backsplash, and Granite Countertops. High End Stainless Double Range, Side by Side 2 Drawer Refrigerator, Dishwasher, Wine/ Beverage Fridge and Farm Style Sink. The Owner Spared No Expense on Plantation Blinds, Window Treatments and Tiffany Style Ceiling Fans. This Lovely 2 Bedroom Home Also Includes 2 Newer Bathrooms. Primary Bath W/ Walk in Shower and Built in Grab Bar and 2 level Shower Head System. The Huge Living Room Has An Electric Fireplace and Wood Accent Wall Complete With a 75 Inch Flatscreen

Key facts

• Stone backsplash
• Dishwasher
• Wood cabinetry

Tags

• REMODELED EXTENSIVELY
• ENGINEERED LAMINATE FLOORING
• WOOD CABINETRY
• STONE BACKSPLASH
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• DISHWASHER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Zoning: RMH
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply; Total annual fees $2,604 (monthly $217)
• HOA & community: HOA required (monthly fee $217); Association approval required; HOA amenities include clubhouse and pool; HOA fee includes pool, grounds maintenance, recreational facilities, sewer, trash and water; Community features: clubhouse, deed restrictions, golf carts allowed, handicap modified, playground; Pets: dogs allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured double wide home; One story; East-facing entry
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal and shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Outdoor storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stone counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Stone counters; Thermostat; Window treatments; Blinds; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $188k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $179 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $188k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 48% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 638 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $188k implies a 261% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,875 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.10%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $136,620
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34313 Countryside Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+3%)	16mo	$139,900	$135	75
34645 Lily Ln	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+4%)	10mo	$127,500	$121	73
34121 Tree Lake Dr	0.34mi	2/2.0	988 (-2%)	9mo	$118,000	$119	73
34616 Morning Glory Gln	0.26mi	2/2.0	960 (-5%)	8mo	$53,000	$55	72
34701 Morning Glory Gln	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+4%)	16mo	$165,000	$156	64
34537 Morning Glory Gln	0.25mi	2/2.0	960 (-5%)	19mo	$140,000	$146	64
34135 Brown Byu	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,081 (+7%)	10mo	$160,000	$148	60
34630 Petunia Pl	0.22mi	2/2.0	864 (-15%)	10mo	$115,000	$133	57
3145 Hickory Dr	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,144 (+13%)	1mo	$155,000	$135	56
3010 Whispering Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,104 (+9%)	15mo	$172,000	$156	56
34704 Morning Glory Gln	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	888 (-12%)	6mo	$60,000	$68	55
34552 Rosebud Row	0.28mi	2/2.0	864 (-15%)	19mo	$118,000	$137	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-24,459
• Equity at exit: $27,957

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-27,856
• Equity at exit: $16,212

Cash invested: $52,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33543

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 638
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,894 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$983
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $457/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$217
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,666

Max offer price $187,500

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $286	-5% $233	+0% $179	+5% $126	+10% $73
Rent	-10% $30	-5% $105	+0% $179	+5% $254	+10% $329
Rate	-1.0pp $274	-0.5pp $227	base $179	+0.5pp $131	+1.0pp $81

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,875
• Closing costs: $5,625
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3030 Beaver Creek Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	15d	1	0.23mi
2516 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	24d	1	0.81mi
2415 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,300	$1.68	5d	1	0.84mi
2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,849	$1.35	17d	1	0.84mi
2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1373	$1,849	$1.35	13d	1	0.84mi
2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,849	$1.35	24d	1	0.84mi
3829 Kim Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	832	$1,395	$1.68	24d	1	0.89mi
2358 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	3d	1	0.89mi
36232 Lanier Oaks Pt , FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,700	$1.28	24d	1	0.91mi
2308 Alee Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,825	$1.33	17d	1	0.96mi
2264 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	24d	1	0.98mi
34142 Polacca Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,100	$1.53	24d	1	1.05mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,999	$1.46	22d	1	1.08mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,900	$1.38	11d	1	1.08mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,999	$1.46	24d	1	1.08mi
2187 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1373	$1,945	$1.42	15d	1	1.08mi
33780 Charleston Club Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,135	$2.19	2d	11	1.08mi
2085 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,200	$1.60	5d	1	1.18mi
33976 Lusitano Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1251	$2,284	$1.82	13d	71	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $217 · $2,604/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 47 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $187,500 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $187,500 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $187,500 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $187,500 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $187,500 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $187,500 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $187,500 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,900 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $189,900 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    listed $189,900 Active
15. 2023-08-15
    historical
16. 2023-06-25
    price $195,000
17. 2023-04-27
    status Active
18. 2023-04-19
    historical
19. 2023-04-18
    status Active
20. 2023-03-18
    status Pending
21. 2023-02-18
    listed $198,000 Active
22. 2021-02-09
    historical
23. 2021-02-04
    listed $138,500 Active
24. 2020-10-25
    historical
25. 2020-10-15
    price $145,500
26. 2020-10-05
    listed $149,500 Active
27. 2020-09-28
    historical
28. 2020-09-24
    price $154,900
29. 2020-09-19
    price $160,000
30. 2020-08-29
    price $170,000
31. 2020-08-25
    listed $175,000 Active
32. 2019-02-14
    soldstatus $52,000 Sold
33. 2019-02-14
    soldstatus $52,000
34. 2019-02-01
    status Pending
35. 2019-01-17
    status Active
36. 2019-01-16
    historical
37. 2019-01-14
    listed $58,500 Active
38. 2019-01-13
    historical
39. 2019-01-02
    price $58,500
40. 2018-12-14
    price $59,000
41. 2018-12-13
    status Active
42. 2018-12-04
    status Pending
43. 2018-11-14
    price $59,500
44. 2018-08-30
    price $60,000
45. 2018-08-14
    price $61,000
46. 2018-07-27
    price $66,900
47. 2018-07-13
    listed $69,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $457 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,556 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,099/yr (+$92/mo · 240.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,724
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,503
• − Property taxes: −$457
• − Insurance: −$938
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,818
• − Management: −$1,818
• − HOA: −$2,604
• − Depreciation: −$5,455
• Taxable loss: −$868
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$208
• After-tax cash flow: $2,362/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wesley Chapel, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,648
• Household income: $107,349
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Black 12% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.13%
• Current HPI: 263.2513
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+171.7% since first listed

34 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-15 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-25 Price Changed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-19 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-18 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-18 Listed $198,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-04 Listed $138,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-25 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-15 Price Changed $145,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-05 Listed $149,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-28 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-24 Price Changed $154,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-19 Price Changed $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-29 Price Changed $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-25 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 2019-02-14 Sold (MLS) $52,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-17 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-14 Listed $58,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-13 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-02 Price Changed $58,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-14 Price Changed $59,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-14 Price Changed $59,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-30 Price Changed $60,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-14 Price Changed $61,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-27 Price Changed $66,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-13 Listed $69,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $457 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.