1375 River Rd · North Creek, NY 12853

$264,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,613 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1975 1.73 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

New septic being installed. Very Good Condition

Key facts

• Flexible nook
• Open dining area
• Spacious living area

Tags

• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• PEACEFUL WOODLAND VIEWS
• FLEXIBLE NOOK
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• OPEN DINING AREA
• KITCHEN SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with space for 8 vehicles
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Under construction / fixer condition
• Construction: Block and cedar construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof; Secluded, private lot with road frontage; Sloped, wooded and partially cleared parcel; Waterfront on the Hudson River

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the second level
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Concrete flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the second level; One half bathroom on the first level
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Wood heating
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Wood and concrete floors; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup on main level

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $621 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $265k).
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 2.2% in North Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#683 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Johnsburg Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #521 of 755 in NY (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $74k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $265k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $264,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.04%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $183,848
• Equity at exit: $238,643

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.88×
• Total profit: $510,371
• Equity at exit: $514,642

Cash invested: $74,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12853

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,076 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax from tax record: −$310 /mo · $3,715/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$646
• Net cashflow: $621

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,290

Max offer price $264,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,225
• Closing costs: $7,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $264,900 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $264,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $264,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $264,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $264,900 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-01
   listed $264,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,715 · $310/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,096 · $341/mo
• Expected delta: +$381/yr (+$32/mo · 10.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,911
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,839
• − Property taxes: −$3,715
• − Insurance: −$1,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,953
• − Management: −$2,953
• − Depreciation: −$7,706
• Taxable income: $3,421
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$821
• After-tax cash flow: $6,629/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnsburg Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615870
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,308
• Composite: 42.4/100
• National rank: #6915
• State rank: #521 of 755 in NY

Livability — North Creek

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #683
• US rank: #12939

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,384

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Asian 3% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Slovak 5% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.16%
• Current HPI: 310.7228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+51.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $264,900 Global MLS
• 2016-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2016-03-21 Sold (MLS) $160,000 Global MLS
• 2016-03-21 Sold (MLS) $160,000 Global MLS
• 2015-10-19 Listed $175,000 Global MLS
• 2015-10-19 Listed $175,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,715 · +33.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.