3900 N State St #1 · Calpella, CA 95482

$174,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 84 Days on market

Built 2012 $146/sqft · 59% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this clean and well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bath home located in a desirable mobile home park in Ukiah. Ideally situated right at the entrance of the park, this home offers convenience and easy access. Enjoy being just steps away from the community's amazing pool, perfect for relaxing and cooling off on warm days. The home features ample parking, granite countertops, and freshly painted kitchen and primary bathroom cabinets, giving it a bright and updated feel. Outside, you'll find a recently power-washed porch that's perfect for BBQs and outdoor gatherings, along with a handy storage shed for added convenience. A great opportunity for comfortable and easy living in a prime park location! | Bienvenido a esta casa limpia y bien mantenida de 3 recamaras y 2 banos ubicada en un parque de casas moviles en Ukiah. Idealmente situada justo en la entrada del parque, esta propiedad ofrece gran conveniencia y acceso facil. Disfrute de estar a solo unos pasos de la increible alberca comunitaria, perfecta para relajarse y refrescarse en dias calurosos. La casa cuenta con amplio estacionamiento, encimeras de granito, y gabinetes de cocina y bano principal recien pintados, brindando un ambiente fresco y actualizado. En el exterior encontrara un porche recien lavado a presion, ideal para hacer BBQs y reuniones al aire libre, ademas de una bodega para almacenamiento adicional. Una excelente oportunidad para vivir comodamente en una ubicacion privilegiada dentro del parque!

Key facts

• Power-washed porch
• Community pool
• Ample parking

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• AMPLE PARKING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• POWER-WASHED PORCH
• STORAGE SHED
• PRIME PARK LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $762 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 2.5% in Calpella — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,171 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety D+, schools F.
• Ukiah Unified (town): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,018 of 1,400 in CA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 153 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Mendocino County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mendocino County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,499 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.28%
• DSCR: 1.90
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $110,000
• List price: $174,999
• Delta: 59.09%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3900 N state #62	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	20mo	$147,000	$123	84
3800 N State St #103	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (-10%)	4mo	$75,000	$69	70
65 Bonita Pl	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+4%)	10mo	$98,000	$79	61
24 Blanco Pl	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+12%)	0mo	$110,000	$82	50
311 Lake Mendocino Dr #24	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+5%)	17mo	$159,950	$127	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $27,818
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $120,196
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95482

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,410 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,017/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $762

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,445

Max offer price $174,999

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $174,999 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,999 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,999 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,999 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,999 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,999 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $174,999 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,999 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,999 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,999 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $174,999 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,999 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,999 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,999 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,999 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $174,999 Active 64 DOM
17. 2026-03-27
    listed $174,999 Active 1492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1492 chars)

    Welcome to this clean and well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bath home located in a desirable mobile home park in Ukiah. Ideally situated right at the entrance of the park, this home offers convenience and easy access. Enjoy being just steps away from the community's amazing pool, perfect for relaxing and cooling off on warm days. The home features ample parking, granite countertops, and freshly painted kitchen and primary bathroom cabinets, giving it a bright and updated feel. Outside, you'll find a recently power-washed porch that's perfect for BBQs and outdoor gatherings, along with a handy storage shed for added convenience. A great opportunity for comfortable and easy living in a prime park location! | Bienvenido a esta casa limpia y bien mantenida de 3 recamaras y 2 banos ubicada en un parque de casas moviles en Ukiah. Idealmente situada justo en la entrada del parque, esta propiedad ofrece gran conveniencia y acceso facil. Disfrute de estar a solo unos pasos de la increible alberca comunitaria, perfecta para relajarse y refrescarse en dias calurosos. La casa cuenta con amplio estacionamiento, encimeras de granito, y gabinetes de cocina y bano principal recien pintados, brindando un ambiente fresco y actualizado. En el exterior encontrara un porche recien lavado a presion, ideal para hacer BBQs y reuniones al aire libre, ademas de una bodega para almacenamiento adicional. Una excelente oportunidad para vivir comodamente en una ubicacion privilegiada dentro del parque!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,017 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,330 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$313/yr (+$26/mo · 30.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,914
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,017
• − Insurance: −$1,672
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,313
• − Management: −$2,313
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $6,704
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,609
• After-tax cash flow: $7,531/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ukiah Unified
• NCES district ID: 0640300
• Math proficiency: 24% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,865
• Composite: 29.21/100
• National rank: #11858
• State rank: #1018 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Calpella

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1171
• US rank: #25917

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mendocino County · 33,164 people
• Metro: Ukiah, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,164
• Household income: $69,772
• Rent vs Own: 44.7% rent · 55.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1349.0

Population outlook (Mendocino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,643 people
• By 2030: 82,138 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 76,402 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 71,759 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 61,454 · -27.4%
• By 2100: 50,130 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 18% Asian 3% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 25% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mendocino

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.8) · D 61.3% · R 34.5% · Other 4.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 42.8pp · 2024: 26.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.8 2020: D+35.8 2016: D+29.1 2012: D+37.6 2008: D+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -485.34%
• Current HPI: 164.6978
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.07%
• Metro: Ukiah, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $174,999 BAREIS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,017 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.