Is 386 Cypress Ln in Sulphur Springs, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 3.8% cap rate and $-577/mo modeled cash flow at a $278,371 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 386 Cypress Ln?

The modeled cap rate is 3.8% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,757/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

F Composite 30.46

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +8.9/15.0
Cash flow +5.6/30.0
Condition / age +5.0/5.0
Schools +3.6/10.0
Livability +3.5/5.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
1% rule +1.3/10.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$278,371

386 Cypress Ln · Sulphur Springs, TX 75482

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,473 sqft · SingleFamily · 81 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,011 sqft lot 2-car garage $189/sqft · at area comps Est $287k · at est. $41/mo HOA · 2% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

MLS# 21275094 - Built by Altura Homes - Oct 2026 completion! ~ The Mansfield floor plan in Sulphur Springs offers the perfect combination of space, comfort, and modern design with 1,473 square feet of thoughtfully planned living space. This beautiful new construction home features 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, making it ideal for growing families or anyone needing extra room to live and entertain comfortably. The open-concept layout creates a bright and welcoming atmosphere, seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining, and living areas for easy everyday living.

Key facts

6,011 sq ft lot
2 garage spots
Built 2026

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi

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What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $278k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-577 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (30.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (36.9% below list).
Recommended offer: $176k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 70/100 on livability (#350 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
Sulphur Springs ISD (town): math 46% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #323 of 826 in TX (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Travis Pri (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,180 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 267 students, 82% FRL); Sulphur Springs Middle (math 50% / reading 38%, grade D, #512 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 974 students, 61% FRL); Sulphur Springs H S (math 53% / reading 50%, grade D+, #478 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 1,263 students, 53% FRL).
Market conditions: 453 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Hopkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Hopkins County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $175,679 (36.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.63% ✗
Cap rate: 3.81%
Cash-on-cash: -8.88%
DSCR: 0.60
GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $287,154
List price: $278,371
Delta: -3.06%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2127 Hollyberry Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,473 (0%)	6mo	$250,086	$170	89
2115 Hollyberry	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,473 (0%)	6mo	$246,805	$168	89
2131 Hollyberry Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,269 (-14%)	1mo	$260,496	$205	66
2116 Redwood	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,269 (-14%)	1mo	$260,279	$205	63
2123 Hollyberry Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,660 (+13%)	8mo	$265,378	$160	62
467 Cypress	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,269 (-14%)	7mo	$236,265	$186	62
2111 Hollyberry Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,660 (+13%)	8mo	$267,378	$161	62
105 Stonebriar Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,615 (+10%)	1mo	$273,000	$169	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -32.0%
Equity multiple: -0.05×
Total profit: $-81,799
Equity at exit: $41,506

10-year hold

IRR: -36.6%
Equity multiple: -0.52×
Total profit: $-118,331
Equity at exit: $24,068

Cash invested: $77,944 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 9 active · 5 under contract
Months of supply: 9.0 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $278,182 ($189/sqft)
Median days on market: 81 d
This list price: 56% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +3.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75482

Active inventory: 453
Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,757 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,460
Tax est. 1.5%: −$348 /mo · $4,176/yr
Insurance: −$116
HOA: −$41
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
Net cashflow: $-577

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,487

Max offer price $194,893

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-385	-5% $-481	+0% $-577	+5% $-673	+10% $-769
Rent	-10% $-716	-5% $-646	+0% $-577	+5% $-508	+10% $-438
Rate	-1.0pp $-437	-0.5pp $-506	base $-577	+0.5pp $-649	+1.0pp $-722

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $69,593
Closing costs: $8,351
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Mandatory association managed by Gulf ProfessionalsAnnual association fee of $495Association fee covers maintenance of structures

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener2 covered parking spaces
Security: Smoke detectorsCarbon monoxide detectors
Utilities: City waterCity sewerIndividual water meterIndividual gas meterUnderground utilitiesCurbsSidewalk
Home design: Single family residenceResidential propertyNew construction (incomplete)One story
Construction: Built in 2026Brick and vinyl siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
Exterior features: GuttersWood fencingInterior lot

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalElectric cooktopElectric ovenMicrowave
Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level)Primary bedroom with walk-in closet
Flooring: CarpetCeramic tileLuxury vinyl plank
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)Ceiling fans
Interior features: Pantry7 total roomsOne-level living
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupUtility room

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $278,371 Active 81 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $278,371 Active 80 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $278,371 Active 79 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $278,371 Active 78 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $278,371 Active 77 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $278,371 Active 76 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $278,371 Active 73 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $278,371 Active 72 DOM
2026-07-29

days on market $278,371 Active 71 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $278,371 Active 69 DOM
2026-07-25

days on market $278,371 Active 67 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $278,371 Active 66 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $278,371 Active 65 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $278,371 Active 64 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $278,371 Active 63 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $278,371 Active 60 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $278,371 Active 58 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $278,371 Active 57 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $278,371 Active 56 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $278,371 Active 55 DOM
2026-07-12

days on market $278,371 Active 54 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $278,371 Active 53 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $278,371 Active 52 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $278,371 Active 51 DOM
2026-07-08

days on market $278,371 Active 50 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $278,371 Active 49 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $278,371 Active 48 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $278,371 Active 47 DOM
2026-07-04

days on market $278,371 Active 46 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $278,371 Active 45 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $278,371 Active 44 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $278,371 Active 43 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $278,371 Active 42 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $278,371 Active 41 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $278,371 Active 40 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $278,371 Active 39 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $278,371 Active 37 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $278,371 Active 34 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $278,371 Active 33 DOM
2026-06-19

days on market $278,371 Active 31 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $278,371 Active 30 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $278,371 Active 29 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $278,371 Active 28 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $278,371 Active 27 DOM
2026-06-14

days on market $278,371 Active 25 DOM
2026-06-12

days on market $278,371 Active 24 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $278,371 Active 21 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $278,371 Active 20 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $278,371 Active 19 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $278,371 Active 18 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $21,081
− Mortgage interest: −$15,593
− Property taxes: −$4,176
− Insurance: −$1,392
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,687
− Management: −$1,687
− HOA: −$492
− Depreciation: −$8,098
Taxable loss: −$12,042

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,890
After-tax cash flow: $-4,033/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new construction home is move-in ready with excellent curb appeal and a well-designed floor plan, ideal for growing families or those seeking extra space.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Install new flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — New flooring improves functionality and appearance. ↑
Both Update kitchen cabinets and appliances — Modern kitchen updates attract more buyers and renters. ↑
Both Install new bathroom fixtures and vanity — Fresh bathrooms appeal to buyers and renters. ↑
Both Add smart home features — Smart home features enhance convenience and attract tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Travis Pri F TX #4,180/4,322 Nat'l #37,719/41,679 Middle Sulphur Springs Middle D TX #512/1,662 Nat'l #4,963/14,009 High Sulphur Springs H S D+ TX #478/1,632 Nat'l #5,269/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Sulphur Springs ISD
NCES district ID: 4841820
Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $42,871
Composite: 36.33/100
National rank: #4692
State rank: #323 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Sulphur Springs

Score: 70/100
State rank: #350
US rank: #7665

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Hopkins County · 38,107 people
City population: 26,483
Metro: Sulphur Springs, TX
Population (ZIP): 26,483
Household income: $69,970
Rent vs Own: 33.5% rent · 66.5% own
Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

Population outlook (Hopkins County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 38,107 people
By 2030: 38,867 · +2.0%
By 2040: 40,009 · +5.0%
By 2050: 40,448 · +6.1%
By 2075: 40,669 · +6.7%
By 2100: 37,234 · -2.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hopkins

2024 margin: Solid R (+64.6) · D 17.4% · R 82.0%
2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -44.7pp · 2024: -64.6pp
All cycles: 2024: R+64.6 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+60.8 2012: R+55.4 2008: R+44.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -125.79%
Current HPI: 156.0526
Rent YoY: —
Metro: Sulphur Springs, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2026-05-19 Listed $278,371 NTREIS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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