1224 E 22nd St · Erie, PA 16503

$120,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 172 Days on market

Built 1900 4,199 sqft lot Est $162k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into this beautiful and newly updated home, featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. Completely remodeled with modern finishes, this bright and inviting space offers a newly updated kitchen and bathroom, new flooring, and fresh paint throughout. you'll find new windows, exterior doors, and a spacious fenced backyard—perfect for BBQ and entertaining. Don’t miss your chance to make this charming home yours! Come and see for yourself

Key facts

• New exterior doors
• Modern finishes
• New windows

Tags

• NEWLY UPDATED KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS FENCED BACKYARD
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW EXTERIOR DOORS
• MODERN FINISHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $137 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $120k implies a 346% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.90%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $161,568
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1224 E 22nd St	0.00mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,584 (0%)	1mo	$120,000	$76	92
1316 Buffalo Rd	0.15mi	4/1.5	1,470 (-7%)	3mo	$149,900	$102	77
2712 East Ave	0.49mi	4/1.0	1,564 (-1%)	4mo	$112,500	$72	72
1156 E 30th St	0.52mi	4/1.0	1,540 (-3%)	0mo	$174,900	$114	71
1038 E 24th St	0.27mi	4/1.0	1,352 (-15%)	2mo	$139,900	$103	62
2923 East Ave	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,656 (+4%)	6mo	$255,000	$154	56
2607 Jackson Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,478 (-7%)	3mo	$59,000	$40	54
2931 Burton Ave	0.53mi	4/1.5	1,440 (-9%)	6mo	$169,500	$118	54
2911 Wayne St	0.75mi	4/1.0	1,495 (-6%)	4mo	$153,000	$102	52
1203 E 29th St	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,450 (-8%)	3mo	$30,000	$21	50
2611 Jackson Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,448 (-9%)	5mo	$42,500	$29	49
2521 Wayne St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,360 (-14%)	4mo	$80,000	$59	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $41,428
• Equity at exit: $73,399

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.44×
• Total profit: $115,462
• Equity at exit: $131,381

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16503

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,098 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $613/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $925

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
614 E 22nd St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,000	$0.77	43d	1	0.82mi
622 E 4th St Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,250	$0.83	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-12
   price $120,000
3. 2025-10-31
   listed $125,000 Active
4. 2019-03-22
   listed $34,900
5. 2019-03-22
   listed $34,900
6. 2019-03-18
   historical
7. 2019-03-18
   historical
8. 2018-11-27
   listed $34,900
9. 2018-11-27
   listed $34,900
10. 2018-10-24
    listed $34,900
11. 2018-09-18
    listed $34,900
12. 1995-09-29
    soldstatus $26,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $613 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,255 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$641/yr (+$53/mo · 104.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,179
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$613
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,054
• − Management: −$1,054
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$355
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$85
• After-tax cash flow: $1,732/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 15,204

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · India, Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.73%
• Current HPI: 135.5955
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+346.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $120,000 GEBOR
• 2025-10-31 Listed $125,000 GEBOR
• 2019-03-22 Listed $34,900 GEBOR
• 2019-03-22 Listed $34,900 GEBOR
• 2019-03-18 Delisted — West Penn MLS
• 2019-03-18 Delisted — West Penn MLS
• 2018-11-27 Listed $34,900 West Penn MLS
• 2018-11-27 Listed $34,900 West Penn MLS
• 2018-10-24 Listed $34,900 GEBOR
• 2018-09-18 Listed $34,900 GEBOR
• 1995-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $26,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $613 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.