18 Winding Way · Oswego, NY 13126

$315,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,234 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1980 0.27 ac lot Est $279k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +1.7/15.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

The heated brick walkway and porch leads to this grand 4 bedroom 2 1/2 bath colonial home. All this home needs is some cosmetic tlc. The welcoming entry includes 2 large coat closets. The family room flows to the eat in kitchen, dining room, and living room. The living room features a large wall width brick fireplace with a natural gas stove insert and matching brick bar. The sliding glass door leads to the back deck, patio, yard, and playhouse. The laundry room is off of the kitchen leading to the attached 2 car garage. There are 4 bedrooms upstairs including a large primary bedroom with bathroom. The finished basement has a large open room and 2 additional rooms with windows and closets t

Key facts

• Brick fireplace
• Finished basement
• Heated brick walkway

Tags

• HEATED BRICK WALKWAY
• BRICK FIREPLACE
• NATURAL GAS STOVE INSERT
• BACK DECK
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• SUMP PUMP WITH BATTERY BACKUP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-402 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (22.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (28.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 8.9% in Oswego — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#265 in NY, #4,189 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment D-.
• Oswego City School District (town): math 39% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #465 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kingsford Park Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 428 students, 46% FRL); Oswego Middle School (math 23% / reading 49%, grade F, #469 of 729 statewide, top 65%, 566 students, 53% FRL); Oswego High School (math 87% / reading 79%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 1,069 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+19.2%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $131k; list at $315k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $226,851 (28.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.47%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,250
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20 Pond Path	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,236 (+0%)	9mo	$252,000	$113	86
9 Deer Trl	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,487 (+11%)	10mo	$395,000	$159	69
39 Eisenhower Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,264 (+1%)	10mo	$250,000	$110	64
24 Varick St	0.40mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,076 (-7%)	2mo	$125,000	$60	59
320 W 3rd St	0.46mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,164 (-3%)	10mo	$252,000	$116	58
11 Jordans Way	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,424 (+8%)	7mo	$429,900	$177	52
286 W 2nd St	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,127 (-5%)	4mo	$235,000	$110	51
96 Ellen St	0.43mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,017 (-10%)	5mo	$272,500	$135	48
2 Whitetail Cir	0.47mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,030 (-9%)	10mo	$330,000	$163	48
14 Kennedy Ave	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,920 (-14%)	11mo	$240,000	$125	41
209 Syracuse Ave	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,978 (-12%)	8mo	$210,000	$106	37
22 Lilac Ln	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,978 (-12%)	10mo	$339,000	$171	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.25% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-54,690
• Equity at exit: $57,551

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-17,118
• Equity at exit: $45,767

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13126

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: 19.2%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,269 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$411 /mo · $4,936/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $-402

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,778

Max offer price $243,917

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-224	-5% $-313	+0% $-402	+5% $-492	+10% $-581
Rent	-10% $-582	-5% $-492	+0% $-402	+5% $-313	+10% $-223
Rate	-1.0pp $-244	-0.5pp $-322	base $-402	+0.5pp $-484	+1.0pp $-567

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14 Pond Path Oswego, NY	3.0	1.5	1408	$2,300	$1.63	15d	1	0.16mi
4 Murray St Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1589	$1,800	$1.13	15d	1	0.39mi
175 W 8th St Unit 1 A Oswego, NY	5.0	2.0	1800	$2,625	$1.46	45d	1	1.07mi
152 W 7th St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.5	2340	$2,300	$0.98	15d	1	1.15mi
137 W Mohawk St Oswego, NY	5.0	2.5	1904	$2,875	$1.51	45d	1	1.17mi
105 W Oneida St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,540	$1.41	15d	1	1.17mi
143 Liberty St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,480	$1.46	15d	1	1.26mi
9 Lathrop St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,500	$1.19	15d	1	1.28mi
130 W Bridge St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,500	$1.47	15d	1	1.29mi
23 NW 9th St Oswego, NY	4.0	1.5	1700	$2,300	$1.35	15d	1	1.30mi
144 W Bridge St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,400	$1.20	15d	1	1.34mi
103 W 8th St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,400	$1.33	15d	1	1.34mi
136 W Cayuga St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,300	$1.44	15d	1	1.36mi
138 W Cayuga St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,300	$1.15	15d	1	1.36mi
153 W Bridge St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	1.5	1800	$2,340	$1.30	15d	1	1.38mi
161 W Bridge St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,240	$1.60	15d	1	1.41mi
85 Liberty St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,500	$1.39	15d	1	1.44mi
39 W 6th St Unit 2-A Oswego, NY	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,725	$1.15	15d	1	1.44mi
148 W Seneca St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,400	$1.33	15d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-08
   price $315,000
3. 2026-02-18
   listed $325,000 Active
4. 1999-04-27
   soldstatus $131,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,936 · $411/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,130 · $427/mo
• Expected delta: +$194/yr (+$16/mo · 3.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,222
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$4,936
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,178
• − Management: −$2,178
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$10,453
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,509
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,320/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oswego City School District
• NCES district ID: 3622050
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,835
• Composite: 38.2/100
• National rank: #4257
• State rank: #465 of 590 in NY

Livability — Oswego

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #4189

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oswego, NY
• County: Oswego County · 36,495 people
• City population: 36,495
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,495
• Household income: $65,346
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1341.0

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.25%
• Current HPI: 295.5134
• Rent YoY: ▲ 19.18%
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+140.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $315,000 CNYIS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $325,000 CNYIS
• 1999-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $131,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,936 · +13.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.