2801 52nd St · Lubbock, TX 79413

$167,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,828 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1956 8,124 sqft lot ↓ 16% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* $1500 Flooring Credit Offered With Competitive Offer!! * Welcome to 2801 52nd Street, a well-maintained home conveniently located in the heart of Lubbock. This property offers a functional floor plan with comfortable living spaces and great natural light throughout. Recent updates include a new roof, new fencing, and a new electrical breaker box, providing added peace of mind for the next owner. The HVAC system and plumbing are in great condition, enhancing the home's overall efficiency and reliability. The layout provides flexibility for everyday living or investment potential. Situated near shopping, dining, and schools, this home combines convenience with opportunity. Whether you're l

Key facts

• Plumbing
• New fencing
• Hvac system

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW FENCING
• NEW ELECTRICAL BREAKER BOX
• HVAC SYSTEM
• PLUMBING
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26 ($306/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (3.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (3.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Parsons El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 396 students, 84% FRL); Atkins Middle (math 24% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 542 students, 87% FRL); Monterey H S (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,114 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 60% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 187 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,228 (3.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.65%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-27,143
• Equity at exit: $24,975

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-28,074
• Equity at exit: $14,482

Cash invested: $46,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79413

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,622 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$878
• Tax from tax record: −$308 /mo · $3,695/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,590

Max offer price $167,500

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $120	-5% $73	+0% $26	+5% $-22	+10% $-69
Rent	-10% $-103	-5% $-39	+0% $26	+5% $90	+10% $154
Rate	-1.0pp $110	-0.5pp $68	base $26	+0.5pp $-18	+1.0pp $-62

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,875
• Closing costs: $5,025
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2823 54th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1725	$1,825	$1.06	45d	1	0.13mi
3019 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,400	$1.08	23d	1	0.43mi
2821 61st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1230	$1,100	$0.89	45d	1	0.54mi
3105 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,375	$1.02	23d	1	0.62mi
2725 63rd St Unit FS Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1624	$1,599	$0.98	45d	1	0.65mi
2316 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,400	$1.09	23d	1	0.67mi
3312 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1880	$1,795	$0.95	45d	1	0.70mi
2400 44th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,225	$1.21	15d	23	0.71mi
2121 56th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2047	$1,999	$0.98	23d	1	0.74mi
3415 49th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,350	$0.96	45d	1	0.76mi
2609 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,550	$1.06	23d	1	0.77mi
3236 63rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1818	$1,524	$0.84	15d	1	0.79mi
3423 56th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2224	$1,895	$0.85	45d	1	0.82mi
3417 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,550	$1.07	45d	1	0.82mi
2107 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1956	$1,200	$0.61	45d	1	0.89mi
3505 46th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1686	$1,550	$0.92	45d	1	0.89mi
2726 68th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1524	$1,800	$1.18	45d	1	0.89mi
2730 68th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	3.0	2050	$1,999	$0.98	23d	1	0.90mi
3114 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,375	$0.92	45d	1	0.90mi
5330 Kenosha Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1300	$1,050	$0.81	45d	1	0.93mi
5202 Kenosha Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0–1.5	1082	$1,022	$0.94	23d	1	0.94mi
5302 Kenosha Ave Unit 5330 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1300	$1,050	$0.81	45d	1	0.94mi
5302 Kenosha Ave Unit 5324 Kenosha Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1300	$950	$0.73	15d	1	0.94mi
5018 Kenosha Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1245	$1,275	$1.02	15d	1	0.94mi
3108 39th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,295	$0.86	23d	1	0.94mi
5324 Kenosha Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1300	$950	$0.73	15d	1	0.95mi
3404 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,500	$1.02	45d	1	0.96mi
3126 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1248	$1,195	$0.96	45d	1	1.02mi
2403 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1786	$1,700	$0.95	45d	1	1.05mi
2117 65th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2285	$1,975	$0.86	23d	1	1.05mi
2801 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,700	$1.87	45d	1	1.05mi
2508 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,700	$1.14	45d	1	1.07mi
3612 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,850	$1.10	45d	1	1.11mi
2115 66th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2160	$1,795	$0.83	23d	1	1.12mi
3712 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1767	$1,400	$0.79	23d	1	1.14mi
3708 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2378	$1,750	$0.74	15d	1	1.15mi
1920 44th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1391	$795	$0.57	23d	1	1.17mi
3408 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1927	$1,895	$0.98	45d	1	1.18mi
2217 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1284	$1,109	$0.86	15d	1	1.24mi
2215 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,450	$0.92	45d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   listed $167,500 Active
3. 2026-01-29
   price $174,950
4. 2025-12-31
   listed $175,000 Active
5. 2025-12-09
   price $185,000
6. 2025-11-26
   price $193,000
7. 2025-11-04
   price $199,000
8. 2023-04-12
   soldstatus
9. 1988-11-01
   soldstatus
10. 1987-12-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,695 · $308/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,695 · $308/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,467
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,383
• − Property taxes: −$3,695
• − Insurance: −$838
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,557
• − Management: −$1,557
• − Depreciation: −$4,873
• Taxable loss: −$2,435
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$584
• After-tax cash flow: $891/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,343
• Household income: $69,400
• Rent vs Own: 43.9% rent · 56.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1211.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 18% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.52%
• Current HPI: 239.8854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $167,500 LARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $174,950 LARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listed $175,000 LARMLS
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $185,000 LARMLS
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $193,000 LARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $199,000 LARMLS
• 2023-04-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1987-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,695 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.