1045 Ozark Rd · New Burnside, IL 62972

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

0.70 ac lot $74/sqft · 52% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Wonderful Shady Yard & Budget Friendly Home-Ozark IL! 2 Bedroom, 1 Bath w/ Large Low Entry Shower & Grab Bars, Large Kitchen/Dining Space, An Extra Room for Office/Play/Possible 3rd Bedroom(new waterproof vinyl plank flooring), 8x24 Glass/Screened Side Porch, 16x24 Garage/Workshop w/ Door Opener. Older Building for Chickens/Garden Stuff. Starting of A Newer Dog/Chicken Pen + 10x16 Concrete Pad. Home Has Central Heat/Air, Metal Roof, Public Water, on Hard Surface Road. No Restrictions! Just Down Road From Camp Ondessonk, Jackson Falls, Bell Smith Springs, Gum Springs!! Call & Come See!

Key facts

• Concrete pad
• Garage workshop
• Central heat air

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN DINING SPACE
• EXTRA ROOM FOR OFFICE
• GLASS SCREENED SIDE PORCH
• GARAGE WORKSHOP
• CONCRETE PAD
• CENTRAL HEAT AIR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.5–0.99 acre (dimensions 322 x 213 x 320 x 215); Parcel number available
• HOA & community: No master association fee required; Community features include horse-riding trails, paved streets and sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (garage owned); Two garage spaces and room for six vehicles total
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story layout; Fee simple ownership; Disability accessible; School bus service available; Age: approximately 26–30 years
• Construction: Steel siding; Metal roof; Block foundation; Not rebuilt or rehabilitated
• Exterior features: Screened patio/porch; Exterior lighting; Wooded lot with mature trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with eating area/table space
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (both on the main level); Additional rooms labeled as Bedroom 3 and Bedroom 4
• Flooring: Engineered hardwood in living room; Linoleum in dining room, kitchen and laundry
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with accessible shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Accessible shower; no bathtub; Separate dining room; Crawl space basement; Six total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $168 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($985 rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,308 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Vienna Hsd 133 (rural): math 15% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #630 of 919 in IL (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Vienna High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #397 of 693 statewide, top 61%, 322 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $82,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.48%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $176,562
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -51.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.27% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $13,439
• Equity at exit: $30,203

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $42,956
• Equity at exit: $41,069

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62972

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $985 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,550/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $773

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $85,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $85,000 Active 599-char remark
17. 2023-07-24
    soldstatus $112,500
18. 2002-11-04
    soldstatus $29,850

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,550 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,740 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$190/yr (+$16/mo · 12.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,824
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,550
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$946
• − Management: −$946
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $723
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$174
• After-tax cash flow: $1,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vienna Hsd 133
• NCES district ID: 1740290
• Math proficiency: 15% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $40,197
• Composite: 24.12/100
• National rank: #13157
• State rank: #630 of 919 in IL

Livability — New Burnside

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1308
• US rank: #24820

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 891

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,355 people
• By 2030: 13,579 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 13,849 · +3.7%
• By 2050: 13,880 · +3.9%
• By 2075: 13,759 · +3.0%
• By 2100: 11,536 · -13.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.3) · D 20.3% · R 78.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -34.6pp · 2024: -58.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.3 2020: R+58.6 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+42.1 2008: R+34.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Current HPI: 164.2171
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+184.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $85,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $112,500 Public Records
• 2002-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $29,850 Public Records

Property tax history

+25.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,550 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.