4166 Sportsman · Sherwood Shores, TX 73439

$185,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Manufactured public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1985 1,008 sqft lot Est $185k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

BUNCOMBE CREEK. .. LAKEWOOD MANOR. .. .beautifully updated and exceptionally clean, (metal roof, newer flooring, new windows, newer AC unit) this home is truly move-in ready. The open living room and kitchen create a comfortable space for everyday living. Step outside to the huge covered back deck, ideal for relaxing and entertaining. The oversized covered front porch is cement. .. no worries with board replacement. The 30x36 carport with both cement and asphalt driveway is a big plus. .. .. plenty of room for parking. A 30x20 shop is insulated, great place to store lake toys. There is an extra shed that works great for storing lawn mower, golf cart or ect. .. . All of this is within walk

Key facts

• Newer ac unit
• Metal roof
• Newer flooring

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• NEWER FLOORING
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEWER AC UNIT
• HUGE COVERED BACK DECK
• OVERSIZED COVERED FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Less than 1 mile to water (Texoma Lake) with beach access and boat ramp/lift access
• HOA & community: Marina in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Carport
• Security: No safety shelter
• Utilities: Electricity available; Satellite internet available; Septic tank; Rural water
• Home design: Single-wide manufactured home; 1 story; Faces west; Entry on main level
• Construction: HardiPlank-type exterior; Manufactured construction; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation with tie-downs; Built (year source: public records)
• Exterior features: Covered patio and porch; Porch; Patio; Shed(s) / storage; No additional exterior features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Stove; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Laminate counters; Aluminum-framed windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $572 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $174k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 2.8% in Sherwood Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,519 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Kingston (rural): math 27% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #70 of 270 in OK (top 26%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 42 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Marshall County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $185k implies a 168% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.24%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $185,472
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14133 Kirk Ln	0.15mi	2/2.0	896 (-11%)	4mo	$165,000	$184	71
4065 Whispering Hills Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+11%)	16mo	$160,000	$143	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $137,082
• Equity at exit: $166,663

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.24×
• Total profit: $374,902
• Equity at exit: $359,414

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73439

• Home prices YoY: 12.3%
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,116 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $636/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $572

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,393

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $676	-5% $624	+0% $572	+5% $519	+10% $467
Rent	-10% $404	-5% $488	+0% $572	+5% $655	+10% $739
Rate	-1.0pp $665	-0.5pp $619	base $572	+0.5pp $524	+1.0pp $475

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $185,000 Pending 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $185,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $185,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $185,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $185,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $185,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-03-12
    listed $185,000 Active
12. 2005-04-04
    soldstatus $69,000
13. 2002-01-31
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $636 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,386 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,750/yr (+$229/mo · 432.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,395
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$636
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,032
• − Management: −$2,032
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $4,026
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$966
• After-tax cash flow: $5,893/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingston
• NCES district ID: 4016590
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,655
• Composite: 24.88/100
• National rank: #7585
• State rank: #70 of 270 in OK

Livability — Sherwood Shores

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1519
• US rank: #25941

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,011

Population outlook (Marshall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,405 people
• By 2030: 18,038 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 19,513 · +12.1%
• By 2050: 21,283 · +22.3%
• By 2075: 27,884 · +60.2%
• By 2100: 35,435 · +103.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 16% Native American 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Marshall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.4) · D 17.7% · R 81.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -38.8pp · 2024: -63.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.4 2020: R+62.5 2016: R+56.6 2012: R+45.7 2008: R+38.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.96%
• Current HPI: 246.2253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+362.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Listed $185,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2005-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 2002-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $636 · +30.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.