278 Cape Sable Dr · Berkshire Lakes, FL 34104

$79,999

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1972 4,791 sqft lot $188/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in a desirable 55+ community in Naples. Community offers a peaceful setting with well-maintained surroundings and amenities for active adult living. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, golf, and Gulf beaches. Great opportunity for seasonal, retirement, or low-maintenance living.

Key facts

• Near dining
• Near golf
• Near shopping

Tags

• PEACEFUL SETTING
• WELL-MAINTAINED SURROUNDINGS
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR DINING
• NEAR GOLF
• NEAR GULF BEACHES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Single-unit property in a single-story building
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Monthly HOA fee of $188 (annual recurring fees $2,256); On-site management; Lawn/land maintenance included; Community clubhouse; Mobile/manufactured community type

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car carport
• Utilities: Water assessment paid; Sewer assessment paid; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured residential property; 1 story (ranch) with rear exposure to the east; Located in NAPLES MOBILE ESTATE (Naples Mobile Estates)
• Construction: Modular construction; Shingle roof; Built in 1972; Architectural plans used for lot dimensions
• Exterior features: Landscaped area view; Windows: see remarks

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; No master bath
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat
• Interior features: Open dining area (family-style); Unfurnished; See remarks for additional interior details

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 436 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $66k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,799 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.40%
• DSCR: 4.04
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 64.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.72×
• Total profit: $60,967
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 67.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.77×
• Total profit: $129,291
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34104

• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 436
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,576 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,409/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$188
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $1,277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $960

Max offer price $79,999

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1895 Courtyard Way #103 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1046	$2,200	$2.10	21d	1	1.03mi
1865 Florida Club Dr Naples, FL	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1214	$1,950	$1.61	23d	2	1.04mi
2648 Kings Lake Blvd Unit 6-201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1060	$2,200	$2.08	21d	1	1.14mi
4640 Santa Barbara Blvd Naples, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1164	$2,229	$1.91	23d	2	1.34mi
4710 Altis Dr Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1101	$2,885	$2.62	13d	39	1.37mi
7725 Tara Cir Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	929	$1,808	$1.95	13d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $188 · $2,256/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,999 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,999 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,999 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,999 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $79,999 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $83,999 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,999 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,999 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $89,999 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $92,999 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $92,999 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $92,999 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $92,999 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    remarks 295-char remark
15. 2026-05-30
    listed $92,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,409 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,409 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 51% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,911
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,409
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,473
• − Management: −$2,473
• − HOA: −$2,256
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $15,092
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,622
• After-tax cash flow: $11,698/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Berkshire Lakes

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,408
• Household income: $71,686
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1423.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 19% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 3% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 24% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -252.48%
• Current HPI: 259.3498
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.10%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+244.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $92,999 NAPLESMLS
• 2005-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records
• 2003-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records
• 1997-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,409 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.