8403 Kaye Dr · Mechanicsville, VA 23116

$300,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1969 0.41 ac lot Est $453k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors and home buyers looking for a little sweat equity. This home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, family room, dining room, den with fireplace, Florida room off the back and an attached 2 car garage. Come put your personal touches on this brick rancher with a front porch you can enjoy your morning coffee. Under the carpet is HW floors except in the Florida room which has sub-floor under carpet. Has public water and sewer in the quiet neighborhood of Holly Ridge. Great location off of Atlee Rd near shopping, restaurants and 295.

Key facts

• Public sewer
• Front porch
• Great location

Tags

• FLORIDA ROOM
• FRONT PORCH
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• PUBLIC WATER
• PUBLIC SEWER
• GREAT LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage; Driveway (paved)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric power
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Brick and drywall construction; Composition/shingle roof; Facing/entry details not provided
• Construction: Built previously (year built details: actual); Brick exterior; Drywall interior; Composition/Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Porch; Deck; Patio/Deck; Storage shed; Paved driveway; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooking; Stove; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Solid surface counters
• Bedrooms: Multiple bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Partially carpeted; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (one with tub & shower)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Has fireplace (gas, masonry)
• Interior features: Dining area; Fireplace; Solid surface counters
• Laundry & utility: Dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-110 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.1% in Mechanicsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#165 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hanover County Public School District (suburban): math 79% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #5 of 131 in VA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 447 units permitted in Hanover County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hanover County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,937 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.57%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $452,760
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8308 Colmar Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5	2,032 (+4%)	10mo	$500,000	$246	80
8410 Rainey Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,846 (-6%)	9mo	$435,000	$236	78
8418 Wanda Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,855 (-5%)	12mo	$368,000	$198	76
8239 Lansdowne Rd	0.22mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,882 (-4%)	11mo	$310,000	$165	67
8470 Rainey Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,884 (-4%)	21mo	$425,000	$226	65
TBD Atlee Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,844 (-6%)	15mo	$538,970	$292	64
8027 Caler Way	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,844 (-6%)	12mo	$611,739	$332	56
8282 Briarthorn Ct	0.16mi	3/2.5	2,246 (+15%)	12mo	$449,950	$200	56
8524 Meadowsweet Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	2,142 (+9%)	16mo	$485,000	$226	51
8018 Caler Way	0.46mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,180 (+11%)	8mo	$649,900	$298	44
8318 Ellerson Green Pl	0.35mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,224 (+14%)	13mo	$425,000	$191	43
8487 Windsor Walk Ln	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,842 (-6%)	19mo	$426,000	$231	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-55,640
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-57,570
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23116

• Home prices YoY: -9.5%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,359 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$276 /mo · $3,307/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,499

Max offer price $280,580

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $60	-5% $-25	+0% $-110	+5% $-195	+10% $-280
Rent	-10% $-296	-5% $-203	+0% $-110	+5% $-17	+10% $76
Rate	-1.0pp $41	-0.5pp $-34	base $-110	+0.5pp $-188	+1.0pp $-267

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8402 McFaye Ave Mechanicsville, VA	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,200	$1.51	11d	1	0.60mi
8197 Belton Cir Mechanicsville, VA	4.0	3.0	2046	$2,400	$1.17	12d	1	1.14mi
8188 Meadowview Ln Mechanicsville, VA	3.0	1.5	1391	$2,300	$1.65	44d	1	1.16mi
8265 Franklin Ln Mechanicsville, VA	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,900	$1.25	44d	1	1.34mi
8217 Center Path Ln Unit 1 Mechanicsville, VA	3.0	2.5	1517	$2,500	$1.65	24d	1	1.36mi
8217 Center Path Ln Mechanicsville, VA	3.0	2.5	1544	$2,400	$1.55	4d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $300,000 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $300,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $300,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $300,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $300,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $300,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   remarks 554-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,307 · $276/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,307 · $276/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$3,307
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,265
• − Management: −$2,265
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$6,557
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,574
• After-tax cash flow: $254/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hanover County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101830
• Math proficiency: 79% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 81% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,386
• Composite: 70.37/100
• National rank: #268
• State rank: #5 of 131 in VA

Livability — Mechanicsville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #5098

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mechanicsville, VA
• County: Hanover County · 134,767 people
• City population: 72,258
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 34,188
• Household income: $141,711
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 193.0

Population outlook (Hanover County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,687 people
• By 2030: 115,373 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 120,828 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 123,591 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 132,168 · +18.3%
• By 2100: 130,105 · +16.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hanover

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.8) · D 36.6% · R 62.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.8pp toward D · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.8 2020: R+26.8 2016: R+32.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.62%
• Current HPI: 253.8652
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $300,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,307 · +12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.