34516 Dustin Ct · Wesley Chapel, FL 33541

$250,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1998 0.41 ac lot Est $249k · at est. $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WONDERFUL 4 bedroom, 2 bath home! 28x60 Palm Harbor! Features include split bedroom plan, large kitchen, exceptional walk-in closet, garden tub and great floor plan. All of this situated on nice lot with a sundeck off the back of the home. A Must See!

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Wooden front deck
• Large kitchen

Tags

• WOODEN FRONT DECK
• ROCKING CHAIR FRONT PORCH
• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOORPLAN
• LARGE KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total living area listed as 1,620 sq ft (public records); Building area listed as 1,720 sq ft (public records); Lot about 0.41 acre (approx. 1/4 to less than 1/2 acre)
• Financial info: No lease restrictions indicated; Property is homesteaded
• HOA & community: Crossroads HOA with a $40 monthly fee (includes sewer and other items); Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer (sewer connected); Electricity available and connected; Cable available; Phone available; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; Faces north; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a double-wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered front and rear porches; Exterior lighting; Vinyl fencing; Landscaped with trees; Paved driveway/road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Solid surface counters
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floorplan; Living room / dining room combo; Split bedroom layout; Solid surface counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments (blinds, drapes, rods)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $311 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (7.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 48% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,324/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 393% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $250k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,423 (7.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.34%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $249,480
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34620 Dustin Ct	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-7%)	15mo	$278,000	$184	67
3630 Kiah Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (0%)	8mo	$250,000	$154	59
34911 Buck Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,496 (-8%)	12mo	$120,000	$80	53
34814 Appaloosa Trl	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,760 (+9%)	15mo	$285,000	$162	52
35020 Colony Hills Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,430 (-12%)	9mo	$175,000	$122	44
3538 Kiah Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,404 (-13%)	15mo	$225,000	$160	37
3818 Chris Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-13%)	9mo	$180,000	$128	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-27,584
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-25,176
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,324 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $836/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,930

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34214 Rogallo Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1574	$2,050	$1.30	24d	1	0.37mi
36232 Lanier Oaks Pt , FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,700	$1.28	24d	1	0.39mi
4410 Sailplane Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1574	$2,100	$1.33	24d	1	0.40mi
34214 Cinder Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1650	$2,200	$1.33	4d	1	0.40mi
34916 Mulrion Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,100	$1.39	24d	1	0.40mi
33976 Lusitano Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1251	$2,895	$2.31	12d	71	0.72mi
34652 Blue Starling St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,650	$1.22	4d	1	0.80mi
34796 Robins Song Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,799	$1.14	19d	1	0.87mi
34873 Robins Song Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,749	$1.11	2d	1	0.90mi
5019 Coopers Hawk Pl Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,699	$1.17	10d	1	0.93mi
34002 Painthorse Way Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$2,945	$2.88	2d	46	0.98mi
5224 Braddock Dr Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	2089	$2,150	$1.03	24d	1	1.01mi
34325 Smart Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,065	$1.37	3d	1	1.07mi
34751 Telluride Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1964	$2,200	$1.12	4d	1	1.10mi
34718 Kircher Dr Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1970	$2,600	$1.32	24d	1	1.20mi
2883 Peony Prairie Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,099	$1.25	11d	1	1.26mi
34276 Redwood Dawn Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,500	$1.49	24d	1	1.28mi
34350 Redwood Dawn Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,350	$1.40	4d	1	1.28mi
2839 Maiden Grass Isle Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1546	$2,600	$1.68	24d	1	1.33mi
34211 Jasper Stone Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1852	$3,200	$1.73	24d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $250,000 Pending 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $250,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $250,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $250,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $250,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $250,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-05-14
    listed $250,000 Active
11. 2007-01-17
    soldstatus $125,000
12. 2007-01-15
    soldstatus $125,000 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    WONDERFUL 4 bedroom, 2 bath home! 28x60 Palm Harbor! Features include split bedroom plan, large kitchen, exceptional walk-in closet, garden tub and great floor plan. All of this situated on nice lot with a sundeck off the back of the home. A Must See!

13. 2006-08-11
    listed $134,900 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    WONDERFUL 4 bedroom, 2 bath home! 28x60 Palm Harbor! Features include split bedroom plan, large kitchen, exceptional walk-in closet, garden tub and great floor plan. All of this situated on nice lot with a sundeck off the back of the home. A Must See!

14. 2004-01-07
    soldstatus $81,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $836 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,075 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,239/yr (+$103/mo · 148.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,891
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$836
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,231
• − Management: −$2,231
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$414
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$99
• After-tax cash flow: $3,835/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+207.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-17 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2007-01-15 Sold (MLS) $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-08-11 Listed $134,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $81,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $836 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.