263 Brierfield Forest Dr · Wilton, AL 35035

$38,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured

Built 1997 1.39 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Home is 16x80 and very roomy. all appliances to remain including washer, dryer and refrigerator. This property is very private and quiet.

Key facts

• 1.39 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1997

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $38k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $609 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $38k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#455 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Bibb County (rural): math 12% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #105 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 16 units permitted in Bibb County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $642 of equity ($263 loan paydown + $379 appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Bibb County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.64%
• DSCR: 4.05
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 71.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.71×
• Total profit: $39,461
• Equity at exit: $12,967

10-year hold

• IRR: 72.6%
• Equity multiple: 9.59×
• Total profit: $91,371
• Equity at exit: $17,228

Cash invested: $10,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35035

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,052 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$199
• Tax from tax record: −$7 /mo · $89/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $609

Break-even live

Break-even rent $282

Max offer price $38,000

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,500
• Closing costs: $1,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2010-04-26
   historical
2. 2009-05-16
   listed $38,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $89 · $7/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $156 · $13/mo
• Expected delta: +$67/yr (+$6/mo · 75.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,625
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,129
• − Property taxes: −$89
• − Insurance: −$190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,010
• − Management: −$1,010
• − Depreciation: −$1,105
• Taxable income: $7,092
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,702
• After-tax cash flow: $5,601/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bibb County
• NCES district ID: 0100360
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $40,196
• Composite: 18.14/100
• National rank: #8964
• State rank: #105 of 129 in AL

Livability — Wilton

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #455
• US rank: #23776

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 933

Population outlook (Bibb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,965 people
• By 2030: 21,437 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 20,248 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 19,023 · -13.4%
• By 2075: 16,513 · -24.8%
• By 2100: 14,871 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Black 5% Native American 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bibb

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.6pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+57.7 2016: R+55.5 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+45.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.00%
• Current HPI: 102.4188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2010-04-26 Delisted — MAAR
• 2009-05-16 Listed $38,000 MAAR

Property tax history

+15.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $89 · -5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.