5022 Draco Cir #2901 · Orangetree, FL 34120

$355,057

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,511 sqft · Townhouse · 7 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A new townhome design by award-winning Neal Communities. This 2-story home includes 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths and an attached garage. As soon as you enter the front door, you are greeted by a well-appointed kitchen, dining space and large great room leading out to the covered lanai. A powder room, storage closet on the lanai, and access to the garage are also on the first floor.

Key facts

• Storage closet
• Covered lanai
• Powder room

Tags

• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• DINING SPACE
• LARGE GREAT ROOM
• COVERED LANAI
• POWDER ROOM
• STORAGE CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $355,057

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space (garage/assigned)
• Home design: Condominium (Sawyer plan); Specification home (Spec); Active listing

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area approximately 1,511

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $355k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $104 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $343k (3.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $343k (3.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#636 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1124 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $342,986 (3.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.09%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-60,828
• Equity at exit: $52,940

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-82,708
• Equity at exit: $30,699

Cash invested: $99,416 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34120

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1124
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,430 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,862
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$444 /mo · $5,326/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$720
• Net cashflow: $104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,298

Max offer price $355,057

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $349	-5% $227	+0% $104	+5% $-19	+10% $-142
Rent	-10% $-167	-5% $-32	+0% $104	+5% $239	+10% $375
Rate	-1.0pp $283	-0.5pp $194	base $104	+0.5pp $12	+1.0pp $-82

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,764
• Closing costs: $10,652
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3660 39th Ave NE Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1389	$2,900	$2.09	22d	1	1.36mi
4003 Pegasus Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1966	$3,300	$1.68	24d	1	1.38mi
4191 Pegasus Way Naples, FL	4.0	3.5	2014	$4,000	$1.99	22d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $355,057 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $355,057 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $355,057 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 377-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $355,057 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AH · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,158
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,889
• − Property taxes: −$5,326
• − Insurance: −$3,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,293
• − Management: −$3,293
• − Depreciation: −$10,329
• Taxable loss: −$4,570
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,097
• After-tax cash flow: $2,343/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new townhome is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a great opportunity for an investor looking to maximize both resale and rental value through landscaping and interior updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters.
• Both Interior updates — Modernizing the interior can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more appealing to potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Interior updates — Modernizing the interior can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more appealing to potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Orangetree

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #636
• US rank: #12453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,345
• Household income: $93,861
• Rent vs Own: 9.4% rent · 90.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 409.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 13%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 28% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.18%
• Current HPI: 316.2474
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.65%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B