815 Moran St · Gainesville, TX 76240

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 153 Days on market

Built 1940 Fair condition 9,583 sqft lot Garage $97/sqft · 36% below area Est $220k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Solid older home near downtown. Two floor furnaces, owner says they are functional. Two window units, go with property. Fenced back yard. Several mature trees. House is at end of dead end street. Low traffic.

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1940

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $294 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.1% in Gainesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#602 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Gainesville ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #606 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Edison El (683 students, 81% FRL); Gainesville J H (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 426 students, 71% FRL); Gainesville H S (math 42% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 863 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 601 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 190 units permitted in Cooke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.01%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,169
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -36.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
428 N Denton St	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,438 (-0%)	4mo	$110,000	$76	79
527 N Chestnut St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,284 (-11%)	7mo	$239,500	$187	66
415 2nd St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-14%)	16mo	$115,000	$93	50
333 N Red River St	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,288 (-11%)	12mo	$232,550	$181	49
345 N Morris St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,526 (+6%)	15mo	$295,000	$193	49
1124 Throckmorton St	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,610 (+12%)	9mo	$187,000	$116	45
422 S Commerce St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	17mo	$255,000	$190	43
812 Buck St	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,282 (-11%)	18mo	$79,900	$62	41
813 Ritchey St	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+4%)	21mo	$267,000	$178	40
1325 Witherspoon St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,627 (+13%)	18mo	$275,000	$169	40
811 Ritchey St	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-13%)	6mo	$235,000	$188	38
227 Davis St	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,596 (+11%)	20mo	$250,000	$157	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-3,911
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $20,875
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 26 active · 10 under contract
• Months of supply: 15.6 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $236,450 ($148/sqft)
• Median days on market: 117 d
• This list price: 19% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76240

• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,624 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,354/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,252

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $373	-5% $334	+0% $294	+5% $255	+10% $215
Rent	-10% $166	-5% $230	+0% $294	+5% $358	+10% $422
Rate	-1.0pp $365	-0.5pp $330	base $294	+0.5pp $258	+1.0pp $221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
306 Harvey St Gainesville, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	5d	1	0.32mi
400 Blackwood St #402 Gainesville, TX	3.0	1.0	936	$1,325	$1.42	1d	1	0.39mi
703 Mill St Gainesville, TX	3.0	1.0	936	$1,500	$1.60	1d	1	0.44mi
426 N Clements St Gainesville, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,307	$1.64	139d	1	0.71mi
418 N Clements St Gainesville, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$1,895	$1.26	5d	1	0.72mi
1010 E Main St Gainesville, TX	3.0	1.0	1263	$1,550	$1.23	139d	1	0.72mi
1506 Elizabeth St Gainesville, TX	2.0	1.0	1024	$1,650	$1.61	5d	1	0.85mi
1817 Throckmorton St Gainesville, TX	2.0	2.0	1644	$1,475	$0.90	5d	1	0.91mi
1007 N Howeth St Gainesville, TX	3.0	2.0	1186	$1,625	$1.37	5d	1	0.92mi
1610 Elizabeth St Gainesville, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	139d	1	0.92mi
1331 Lanius St Gainesville, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,850	$1.42	139d	1	1.17mi
1000 Bella Vista Dr Gainesville, TX	2.0	2.0	960	$1,265	$1.32	1d	1	1.20mi
1000 Bella Vista Dr Gainesville, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,536	$1.34	139d	1	1.20mi
923 S Wine St Gainesville, TX	3.0	1.0	1216	$1,550	$1.27	139d	1	1.27mi
914 Locust St Gainesville, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,549	$1.48	5d	1	1.31mi
2512 N Grand Ave Gainesville, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	906	$1,639	$1.81	1d	24	1.47mi
1217 S Howeth St Gainesville, TX	3.0	2.0	1078	$1,500	$1.39	5d	1	1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unknown encumbrance(s) noted in restrictionsPossession at closing/funding or negotiable
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan typeNo second mortgageListing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Garage1 covered parking space1 garage space
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerNot in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residenceOne storyResidential propertyPreowned (built 1940)
• Construction: Composition roofSiding exteriorPillar/post/pier foundationYear built 1940
• Exterior features: Covered front porchCovered porch(es)Chain link fencingUtilities easement

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main levelOther appliances
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level; primary bedroom on level 1)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window cooling unit(s)Floor furnaceWall furnace
• Interior features: 6 total rooms2 living areas1 dining areaOther interior features
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupUtility room on main level

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $140,000 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-09-20
   days on market $140,000 Active 150 DOM
3. 2026-09-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-09-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-09-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 146 DOM
6. 2026-09-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 145 DOM
7. 2026-09-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-09-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-09-12
   days on market $140,000 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-09-11
    days on market $140,000 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-09-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-09-04
    days on market $140,000 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-09-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 133 DOM
14. 2026-09-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 132 DOM
15. 2026-08-30
    days on market $140,000 Active 129 DOM
16. 2026-08-29
    days on market $140,000 Active 128 DOM
17. 2026-08-28
    days on market $140,000 Active 127 DOM
18. 2026-08-27
    days on market $140,000 Active 126 DOM
19. 2026-08-26
    days on market $140,000 Active 125 DOM
20. 2026-08-25
    days on market $140,000 Active 124 DOM
21. 2026-08-24
    days on market $140,000 Active 123 DOM
22. 2026-08-23
    days on market $140,000 Active 122 DOM
23. 2026-08-22
    days on market $140,000 Active 121 DOM
24. 2026-08-21
    days on market $140,000 Active 120 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $140,000 Active 119 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $140,000 Active 118 DOM
27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $140,000 Active 117 DOM
28. 2026-08-17
    days on market $140,000 Active 116 DOM
29. 2026-08-16
    days on market $140,000 Active 115 DOM
30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $140,000 Active 114 DOM
31. 2026-08-14
    days on market $140,000 Active 113 DOM
32. 2026-08-13
    days on market $140,000 Active 112 DOM
33. 2026-08-12
    days on market $140,000 Active 111 DOM
34. 2026-08-11
    days on market $140,000 Active 110 DOM
35. 2026-08-10
    days on market $140,000 Active 109 DOM
36. 2026-08-09
    days on market $140,000 Active 108 DOM
37. 2026-08-08
    days on market $140,000 Active 107 DOM
38. 2026-08-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 106 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $140,000 Active 105 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 104 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $140,000 Active 103 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 102 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 99 DOM
44. 2026-07-29
    days on market $140,000 Active 97 DOM
45. 2026-07-27
    days on market $140,000 Active 95 DOM
46. 2026-07-25
    days on market $140,000 Active 93 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $140,000 Active 92 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $140,000 Active 91 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $140,000 Active 90 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $140,000 Active 89 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,354 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,562 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$208/yr (+$17/mo · 8.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,487
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,354
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,559
• − Management: −$1,559
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $1,400
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$336
• After-tax cash flow: $3,194/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $36,000–$64,800 screening

The home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, including painting the exterior siding and inspecting the roof. These updates will significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Deferred maintenance Est. $40,000–$120,000 screening

• Major Roof (roof) — The roof appears to be missing shingles and has visible damage.
• Major Windows (windows) — The windows appear to be old and may need replacement.
• Major Electrical (electrical) — The electrical panel looks old and may need an upgrade.
• Major Plumbing (plumbing) — The plumbing fixtures appear old and may need replacement.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint exterior siding — Painted but shows signs of wear
• Minor Inspect roof — Appears intact but may need inspection

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Inspect and repair roof — Ensures structural integrity and prevents leaks ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Edison El Middle Gainesville Int F TX #1,015/1,662 Nat'l #8,646/14,009 High Gainesville H S F TX #1,044/1,632 Nat'l #10,416/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gainesville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820220
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,772
• Composite: 26.27/100
• National rank: #7252
• State rank: #606 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #602
• US rank: #11445

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gainesville, TX
• County: Cooke County · 39,965 people
• City population: 29,419
• Metro: Gainesville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,419
• Household income: $71,502
• Rent vs Own: 32.6% rent · 67.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Cooke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,965 people
• By 2030: 39,974 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 39,772 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 39,258 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 37,262 · -6.8%
• By 2100: 33,363 · -16.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Cooke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.9) · D 16.2% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -58.7pp · 2024: -66.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.9 2020: R+65.2 2016: R+68.1 2012: R+67.6 2008: R+58.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -198.63%
• Current HPI: 247.3822
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Gainesville, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unknown encumbrance(s) noted in restrictionsPossession at closing/funding or negotiable
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan typeNo second mortgageListing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Garage1 covered parking space1 garage space
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerNot in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residenceOne storyResidential propertyPreowned (built 1940)
• Construction: Composition roofSiding exteriorPillar/post/pier foundationYear built 1940
• Exterior features: Covered front porchCovered porch(es)Chain link fencingUtilities easement

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main levelOther appliances
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level; primary bedroom on level 1)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window cooling unit(s)Floor furnaceWall furnace
• Interior features: 6 total rooms2 living areas1 dining areaOther interior features
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupUtility room on main level

Price history

+307.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $142,500 NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $145,000 NTREIS
• 2004-04-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-04-07 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2004-02-15 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2003-12-31 Listed $35,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,354 · +15.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.