17837 Haden Cv · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$347,298

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,847 sqft · Land · 20 Days on market

Built 2025 4,800 sqft lot $266/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Welcome to Rye Ranch, where modern living meets a vibrant, resort-style community in the heart of Parrish. This beautifully designed 4-bedroom, 2.5 bath home sits on a desirable corner lot with peaceful lake views, offering both privacy and a scenic backdrop. Inside, the open-concept floor plan is ideal for everyday living and entertaining, seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining, and family room. A covered lanai extends your living space outdoors, perfect for relaxing or hosting. Upstairs, a spacious loft creates separation between the secondary bedrooms and the private owner’s suite, providing flexibility for work, play, or additiona

Key facts

• 4,800 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $347k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-147 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $321k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $288k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $288k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gene Witt Elementary School (math 84% / reading 82%, grade A+, #65 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 689 students, 24% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 28% FRL vs 51% district-wide (23 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($342k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $287,700 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.82%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-74,041
• Equity at exit: $51,783

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-108,919
• Equity at exit: $30,028

Cash invested: $97,243 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,877 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,821
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,259/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$266
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$604
• Net cashflow: $-147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,064

Max offer price $321,259

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,824
• Closing costs: $10,419
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2726 Greenleaf Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1651	$2,200	$1.33	24d	1	1.02mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $266 · $3,192/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   listed $347,298 Active
3. 2026-04-02
   historical
4. 2026-03-27
   price $347,298
5. 2026-02-19
   listed $348,692 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,259 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,883 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: +$624/yr (+$52/mo · 27.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,524
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,454
• − Property taxes: −$2,259
• − Insurance: −$1,736
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,762
• − Management: −$2,762
• − HOA: −$3,192
• − Depreciation: −$10,103
• Taxable loss: −$7,745
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,859
• After-tax cash flow: $90/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-0.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Listed $347,298 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $347,298 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Listed $348,692 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid