6 Betsy Ross Ct · Harlingen, NJ 08558-1701

$900,000

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,708 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1977 1.02 ac lot Est $1024k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

This home is located at the end of a secluded cul-de-sac in a welcoming neighborhood within the prestigious township of Montgomery. The first-floor Bedroom Suite has the potential to serve as the primary bedroom w/ full bathroom/heated floor, while upstairs, another Primary Bedroom with a full bathroom and walk-in closet has the same possibilities. . Upstairs also includes three additional sizeable bedrooms with another full bathroom and plenty of closet space. The finished basement offers additional functional space to serve a range of activities. The leisure room's wood-burning fireplace, complete with a custom mantle, creates an eye-catching focal point and both a Formal Dining and Livin

Key facts

• 1.02 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1977

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $900k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-998 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $724k (19.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $700k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $700k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#409 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Montgomery Township School District (rural): math 59% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #15 of 472 in NJ (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Orchard Hill Elementary School (813 students, 6% FRL); Montgomery Upper Middle School (math 55% / reading 77%, grade A-, #19 of 431 statewide, top 5%, 790 students, 5% FRL); Montgomery High School (math 52% / reading 75%, grade B-, #47 of 399 statewide, top 12%, 1,603 students, 4% FRL) — zoned schools at 5% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 678 units permitted in Somerset County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Somerset County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($886k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $700,000 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.75%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,023,624
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
77 Meadow Run Dr	0.33mi	5/3.0	2,632 (-3%)	2mo	$995,000	$378	77
180 Orchard Rd	0.30mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,912 (+8%)	18mo	$830,000	$285	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $45,181
• Equity at exit: $404,679

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $250,423
• Equity at exit: $623,659

Cash invested: $252,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08558-1701

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,720
• Tax from tax record: −$1,433 /mo · $17,194/yr
• Insurance: −$375
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,470
• Net cashflow: $-998

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,263

Max offer price $723,785

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-488	-5% $-743	+0% $-998	+5% $-1,252	+10% $-1,507
Rent	-10% $-1,551	-5% $-1,274	+0% $-998	+5% $-721	+10% $-445
Rate	-1.0pp $-544	-0.5pp $-769	base $-998	+0.5pp $-1,231	+1.0pp $-1,468

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $225,000
• Closing costs: $27,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 Liam Pl Skillman, NJ	6.0	6.5	3545	$7,000	$1.97	45d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-03-19
   price $900,000
3. 2026-03-14
   listed $925,000 Active
4. 2026-03-10
   historical $925,000
5. 2024-10-23
   historical
6. 2024-07-08
   listed $850,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $17,194 · $1,433/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $19,802 · $1,650/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,608/yr (+$217/mo · 15.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $84,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$50,414
• − Property taxes: −$17,194
• − Insurance: −$4,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,720
• − Management: −$6,720
• − Depreciation: −$26,182
• Taxable loss: −$27,730
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,655
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,315/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3410590
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $152,313
• Composite: 64.96/100
• National rank: #506
• State rank: #15 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Harlingen

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #409
• US rank: #14268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

No demographic data for this ZIP.

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+5.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — GSMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $900,000 GSMLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $925,000 GSMLS
• 2026-03-10 Coming Soon $925,000 GSMLS
• 2024-10-23 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-07-08 Listed $850,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $17,194 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.