Desert Spoon Plan · Florence, AZ 85132

$299,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,480 sqft · SingleFamily · 885 Days on market

Poor condition ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This one-story Desert Spoon plan gives you the features you need to make the most of every square foot. The kitchen overlooks the gathering room, with a café perfect for meals on the go or drinks with friends. The owner's suite features a walk-in closet, and the secondary bedrooms are perfect for guests. Flexible living space works the way you need, with an option for an enclosed den.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 884 days

🏗️ New construction. The $299,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $353,215.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-464 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#187 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Florence High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 796 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 737 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 82% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 885 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,282 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 885 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.63%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $353,215
• List price: $299,990
• Delta: -15.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2845 N Crestwood Ct	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,481 (+0%)	1mo	$270,000	$182	93
7225 W Pleasant Oak Way	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,450 (-2%)	0mo	$295,000	$203	74
6466 W Heritage Way	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,381 (-7%)	2mo	$304,000	$220	72
7507 W Sonoma Way	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,451 (-2%)	0mo	$380,000	$262	68
7382 W Silver Spring Way	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,475 (-0%)	3mo	$350,000	$237	67
7253 W Cinder Brook Way	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,507 (+2%)	3mo	$340,000	$226	67
7566 W Congressional Way	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,481 (+0%)	2mo	$300,000	$203	66
6900 W Patriot Way	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,613 (+9%)	1mo	$365,000	$226	63
6718 W Patriot Way	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,613 (+9%)	2mo	$438,000	$272	63
6611 W Trenton Ct	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,627 (+10%)	2mo	$340,000	$209	62
7196 W Sonoma Way	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,605 (+8%)	1mo	$375,000	$234	61
2234 N Hudson Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,606 (+8%)	2mo	$394,000	$245	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-91,018
• Equity at exit: $52,665

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-134,111
• Equity at exit: $30,540

Cash invested: $98,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85132

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 737
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,503 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,852
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$442 /mo · $5,298/yr
• Insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $-464

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,090

Max offer price $286,108

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-220	-5% $-342	+0% $-464	+5% $-586	+10% $-708
Rent	-10% $-661	-5% $-563	+0% $-464	+5% $-365	+10% $-266
Rate	-1.0pp $-286	-0.5pp $-374	base $-464	+0.5pp $-555	+1.0pp $-648

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,304
• Closing costs: $10,596
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2926 N Coronado Dr Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1756	$2,200	$1.25	45d	1	0.24mi
3658 N Princeton Ct Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1817	$3,500	$1.93	45d	1	0.35mi
3947 N Hidden Canyon Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1381	$3,000	$2.17	45d	1	0.50mi
7347 W Millerton Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,695	$1.17	45d	1	0.66mi
6431 W Sandpiper Way Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1817	$3,500	$1.93	45d	1	0.78mi
2313 N Presidential Dr Unit 1545866P Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,578	$1.46	16d	1	0.78mi
7635 W Springfield Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,700	$1.17	45d	1	0.83mi
6566 W Mockingbird Ct Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1381	$3,000	$2.17	45d	1	0.85mi
4518 N Petersburg Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1644	$2,500	$1.52	26d	1	0.91mi
4394 N Hummingbird Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1586	$3,500	$2.21	45d	1	0.95mi
8555 W Georgetown Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1571	$2,800	$1.78	45d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,990 Active 885 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,990 Active 882 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,990 Active 881 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,990 Active 880 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,990 Active 879 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,990 Active 877 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,990 Active 876 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,990 Active 873 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,990 Active 872 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,990 Active 871 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,990 Active 868 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,990 Active 867 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,990 Active 866 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,990 Active 865 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,990 Active 864 DOM
16. 2025-12-21
    price $299,990 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    This one-story Desert Spoon plan gives you the features you need to make the most of every square foot. The kitchen overlooks the gathering room, with a café perfect for meals on the go or drinks with friends. The owner's suite features a walk-in closet, and the secondary bedrooms are perfect for guests. Flexible living space works the way you need, with an option for an enclosed den.

17. 2025-03-12
    price $333,990 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    This one-story Desert Spoon plan gives you the features you need to make the most of every square foot. The kitchen overlooks the gathering room, with a café perfect for meals on the go or drinks with friends. The owner's suite features a walk-in closet, and the secondary bedrooms are perfect for guests. Flexible living space works the way you need, with an option for an enclosed den.

18. 2025-02-01
    price $330,990 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    This one-story Desert Spoon plan gives you the features you need to make the most of every square foot. The kitchen overlooks the gathering room, with a café perfect for meals on the go or drinks with friends. The owner's suite features a walk-in closet, and the secondary bedrooms are perfect for guests. Flexible living space works the way you need, with an option for an enclosed den.

19. 2024-09-05
    price $329,990 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    This one-story Desert Spoon plan gives you the features you need to make the most of every square foot. The kitchen overlooks the gathering room, with a café perfect for meals on the go or drinks with friends. The owner's suite features a walk-in closet, and the secondary bedrooms are perfect for guests. Flexible living space works the way you need, with an option for an enclosed den.

20. 2024-07-17
    price $324,990 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    This one-story Desert Spoon plan gives you the features you need to make the most of every square foot. The kitchen overlooks the gathering room, with a café perfect for meals on the go or drinks with friends. The owner's suite features a walk-in closet, and the secondary bedrooms are perfect for guests. Flexible living space works the way you need, with an option for an enclosed den.

21. 2024-03-27
    price $322,990 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    This one-story Desert Spoon plan gives you the features you need to make the most of every square foot. The kitchen overlooks the gathering room, with a café perfect for meals on the go or drinks with friends. The owner's suite features a walk-in closet, and the secondary bedrooms are perfect for guests. Flexible living space works the way you need, with an option for an enclosed den.

22. 2024-03-17
    price $317,990 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    This one-story Desert Spoon plan gives you the features you need to make the most of every square foot. The kitchen overlooks the gathering room, with a café perfect for meals on the go or drinks with friends. The owner's suite features a walk-in closet, and the secondary bedrooms are perfect for guests. Flexible living space works the way you need, with an option for an enclosed den.

23. 2024-01-19
    listed $314,990 Active 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    This one-story Desert Spoon plan gives you the features you need to make the most of every square foot. The kitchen overlooks the gathering room, with a café perfect for meals on the go or drinks with friends. The owner's suite features a walk-in closet, and the secondary bedrooms are perfect for guests. Flexible living space works the way you need, with an option for an enclosed den.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,034
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,786
• − Property taxes: −$5,298
• − Insurance: −$1,766
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,403
• − Management: −$2,403
• − Depreciation: −$10,275
• Taxable loss: −$11,897
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,855
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,710/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 0 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and updates to bring it up to current standards, significantly impacting its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen countertops — Significant wear and potential damage.
• Major Kitchen cabinets — Visible wear and potential structural issues.
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Outdated and potentially in need of replacement.
• Major Roof — Visible damage and potential leaks.
• Major Exterior siding — Peeling and in need of repainting or replacement.
• Major Flooring — Worn and may need replacement or refinishing.
• Major Interior walls — Significant water damage and peeling paint.
• Major HVAC system — Outdated and may need replacement or repair.
• Major Windows — Old and may need replacement or caulking.
• Major Foundation — Potential structural issues and stability concerns.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Kitchen renovation — A modern kitchen will attract more buyers and increase the home's value.
• Resale Bathroom updates — Up-to-date bathrooms will appeal to potential buyers and increase the home's value.
• Both Exterior painting and siding replacement — A fresh exterior will improve curb appeal and attract more renters.
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system will improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting both buyers and renters.
• Both Windows replacement — New windows will improve energy efficiency and curb appeal, attracting both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen countertops · Significant wear and potential damage.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Kitchen cabinets · Visible wear and potential structural issues.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · Outdated and potentially in need of replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · Visible damage and potential leaks.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · Peeling and in need of repainting or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Worn and may need replacement or refinishing.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls · Significant water damage and peeling paint.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC system · Outdated and may need replacement or repair.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · Old and may need replacement or caulking.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Foundation · Potential structural issues and stability concerns.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 10 items		$150,000–500,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Kitchen renovation — A modern kitchen will attract more buyers and increase the home's value. ↑
• Resale Bathroom updates — Up-to-date bathrooms will appeal to potential buyers and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Exterior painting and siding replacement — A fresh exterior will improve curb appeal and attract more renters. ↑
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system will improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Windows replacement — New windows will improve energy efficiency and curb appeal, attracting both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Florence

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #19483

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florence, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 38,671
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 38,671
• Household income: $79,000
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 102.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 7% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.75%
• Current HPI: 233.6644
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-21 Price Changed $299,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-12 Price Changed $333,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-01 Price Changed $330,990 Zillow
• 2024-09-05 Price Changed $329,990 Zillow
• 2024-07-17 Price Changed $324,990 Zillow
• 2024-03-27 Price Changed $322,990 Zillow
• 2024-03-17 Price Changed $317,990 Zillow
• 2024-01-19 Listed $314,990 Zillow