4223 W 5th St · Duluth, MN 55807

$200,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,142 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1919 4,792 sqft lot $175/sqft · 6% below area Est $213k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity to build equity with just a little work! This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home in the desirable Denfeld neighborhood offers plenty of potential along with many valuable updates already completed. The main level features a spacious living room, large kitchen, and formal dining area—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, you’ll find all three bedrooms along with a full bathroom for added convenience. This home includes steel siding, a durable metal roof, newer windows throughout, central A/C, and a fenced yard in both the front and back. Enjoy relaxing or entertaining on the backyard deck, plus the convenience of an oversized 2-car garage off the

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Steel siding
• Fenced yard

Tags

• STEEL SIDING
• METAL ROOF
• NEWER WINDOWS
• CENTRAL A/C
• FENCED YARD
• BACKYARD DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with 2 spaces; Garage door opener; Gravel parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family detached residence; 2 stories
• Construction: Steel siding; Metal roof; Built with a foundation and includes a full basement
• Exterior features: Level lot; Paved city street frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Hardwood floors; Full unfinished basement; Deck; Fenced yard; Workshop (separate structure)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-410/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.9% in Duluth — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#36 in MN, #1,060 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Duluth Public School District (urban): math 44% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #132 of 301 in MN (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Laura Macarthur Elementary (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #722 of 857 statewide, top 85%, 320 students, 76% FRL); Lincoln Park Middle School (math 26% / reading 39%, grade F, #186 of 258 statewide, top 72%, 524 students, 66% FRL); Denfeld High School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #282 of 471 statewide, top 63%, 940 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 39% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duluth Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 639 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $200k implies a 135% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1919 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $172,526 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1919 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.73%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,015
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -6.11%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
838 Charles Ave	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,137 (-0%)	2mo	$228,000	$201	80
4217 W 7th St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,021 (-11%)	3mo	$245,000	$240	70
608 N 43rd Ave Ave W	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,312 (+15%)	5mo	$245,000	$187	67
3925 Grand Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-12%)	0mo	$140,000	$140	65
4608 Medina St	0.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,209 (+6%)	3mo	$180,000	$149	64
3916 W 4th St	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,005 (-12%)	2mo	$250,000	$249	62
4333 W 8th St	0.23mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,290 (+13%)	5mo	$115,000	$89	58
5716 Huntington St	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,176 (+3%)	7mo	$266,000	$226	58
3801 W 5th St	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,285 (+12%)	2mo	$242,500	$189	56
513 N 47th Ave Ave W	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,261 (+10%)	7mo	$247,097	$196	49
3808 W 5th St	0.40mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,292 (+13%)	7mo	$255,000	$197	47
5321 Medina St	0.37mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,298 (+14%)	8mo	$245,000	$189	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-34,552
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-32,748
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55807

• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,725 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$265 /mo · $3,180/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,769

Max offer price $193,958

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $79	-5% $22	+0% $-34	+5% $-91	+10% $-147
Rent	-10% $-170	-5% $-102	+0% $-34	+5% $34	+10% $102
Rate	-1.0pp $67	-0.5pp $17	base $-34	+0.5pp $-86	+1.0pp $-139

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5725 W 8th St Unit 2 Duluth, MN	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,550	$1.19	23d	1	0.74mi
509 N 53rd Ave W Duluth, MN	2.0	1.0	931	$1,250	$1.34	45d	1	0.79mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 820-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $200,000 Active 820-char remark
3. 2001-04-03
   soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,180 · $265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,180 · $265/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,703
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,180
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,656
• − Management: −$1,656
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,811
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$915
• After-tax cash flow: $504/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duluth Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2711040
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $45,692
• Composite: 41.92/100
• National rank: #3360
• State rank: #132 of 301 in MN

Livability — Duluth

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #36
• US rank: #1060

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Duluth, MN
• County: Saint Louis County · 115,152 people
• City population: 71,097
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 9,763
• Household income: $62,067
• Rent vs Own: 28.4% rent · 71.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,411 people
• By 2030: 203,234 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 202,520 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 200,853 · -0.8%
• By 2075: 200,943 · -0.7%
• By 2100: 192,058 · -5.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: D (+13.7) · D 55.9% · R 42.2% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.7 2020: D+15.6 2016: D+11.8 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.84%
• Current HPI: 212.6883
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+135.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — LSAR
• 2026-05-06 Listed $200,000 LSAR
• 2001-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,180 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.