706 Merlin Ct · Troy, IL 62294

$169,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1964 3,811 sqft lot Est $175k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT FIRST TIME BUYER HOME! Cozy living room that walks into the kitchen/eating area with full size laundry area and pantry. HARDWOOD floors through out most of home. Down the hall there are 3 bedrooms & a full bath. The one car attached garage has extra shelving for storage and a garage opener. There is a large back yard with an 18'x 10' patio, privacy fence & double gate for bringing in that boat or large mower. You will love the newly extended driveway/sidewalk. Hot water heater with a salt free conditioning system (1-2 yrs). This home is in a perfect location, close to schools, walking trails, interstates & shopping. ( SOLD "AS IS") Seller will not do any repairs or pay for any inspections. Needs some TLC to make it your very own! Call your favorite agent now for a showing! DON'T MISS OUT! PLEASE DO NOT LOCK DOOR FROM HOUSE TO GARAGE.

Key facts

• New tile flooring
• One story gem
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• ONE STORY GEM
• OVERSIZED ONE CAR GARAGE
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• GORGEOUS HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NEW TILE FLOORING
• UPDATED KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 864 (public records)
• Financial info: Seller may consider concessions; Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Street lights in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1-car) approximately 24x12
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Cable available; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Private ownership; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof; Permanent foundation; Built in public-record year
• Exterior features: Front porch; Patio; Wood fencing; Back yard; Cul-de-sac location; Few trees; Landscaped yard; Level lot; Near public transit; Pie-shaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliances; Built-in gas range; ENERGY STAR qualified refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry closet; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50 ($601/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.0% in Troy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#134 in IL, #2,492 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Triad CUSD 2 (rural): math 43% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #106 of 620 in IL (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: C A Henning School (math 42% / reading 39%, grade F, #380 of 2,056 statewide, top 19%, 743 students, 0% FRL); Triad Middle School (math 45% / reading 44%, grade D, #95 of 665 statewide, top 15%, 901 students, 0% FRL); Triad High School (math 43% / reading 40%, grade F, #82 of 693 statewide, top 12%, 1,205 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 18% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 336 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,848 (8.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.26%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $174,528
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
706 Merlin Ct	0.00mi	3/1.0	864 (0%)	0mo	$169,900	$197	100
207 E High St	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	768 (-11%)	3mo	$155,000	$202	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-24,318
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-16,975
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62294

• Home prices YoY: -15.6%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,548 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$211 /mo · $2,537/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,485

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $146	-5% $98	+0% $50	+5% $2	+10% $-46
Rent	-10% $-72	-5% $-11	+0% $50	+5% $111	+10% $172
Rate	-1.0pp $136	-0.5pp $93	base $50	+0.5pp $6	+1.0pp $-39

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-06
   status Active
4. 2026-02-23
   historical Active Under Contract
5. 2026-02-14
   listed $169,900 Active
6. 2026-02-14
   historical $169,900
7. 2023-12-07
   soldstatus $130,000
8. 2023-11-27
   soldstatus Closed 880-char remark

   Show marketing remark (880 chars)

   GREAT FIRST TIME BUYER HOME! Cozy living room that walks into the kitchen/eating area with full size laundry area and pantry. HARDWOOD floors through out most of home. Down the hall there are 3 bedrooms & a full bath. The one car attached garage has extra shelving for storage and a garage opener. There is a large back yard with an 18'x 10' patio, privacy fence & double gate for bringing in that boat or large mower. You will love the newly extended driveway/sidewalk. Hot water heater with a salt free conditioning system (1-2 yrs). This home is in a perfect location, close to schools, walking trails, interstates & shopping. ( SOLD "AS IS") Seller will not do any repairs or pay for any inspections. Needs some TLC to make it your very own! Call your favorite agent now for a showing! DON'T MISS OUT! PLEASE DO NOT LOCK DOOR FROM HOUSE TO GARAGE.

9. 2023-11-01
   status Pending 880-char remark

   Show marketing remark (880 chars)

   GREAT FIRST TIME BUYER HOME! Cozy living room that walks into the kitchen/eating area with full size laundry area and pantry. HARDWOOD floors through out most of home. Down the hall there are 3 bedrooms & a full bath. The one car attached garage has extra shelving for storage and a garage opener. There is a large back yard with an 18'x 10' patio, privacy fence & double gate for bringing in that boat or large mower. You will love the newly extended driveway/sidewalk. Hot water heater with a salt free conditioning system (1-2 yrs). This home is in a perfect location, close to schools, walking trails, interstates & shopping. ( SOLD "AS IS") Seller will not do any repairs or pay for any inspections. Needs some TLC to make it your very own! Call your favorite agent now for a showing! DON'T MISS OUT! PLEASE DO NOT LOCK DOOR FROM HOUSE TO GARAGE.

10. 2023-10-30
    historical 880-char remark

    Show marketing remark (880 chars)

    GREAT FIRST TIME BUYER HOME! Cozy living room that walks into the kitchen/eating area with full size laundry area and pantry. HARDWOOD floors through out most of home. Down the hall there are 3 bedrooms & a full bath. The one car attached garage has extra shelving for storage and a garage opener. There is a large back yard with an 18'x 10' patio, privacy fence & double gate for bringing in that boat or large mower. You will love the newly extended driveway/sidewalk. Hot water heater with a salt free conditioning system (1-2 yrs). This home is in a perfect location, close to schools, walking trails, interstates & shopping. ( SOLD "AS IS") Seller will not do any repairs or pay for any inspections. Needs some TLC to make it your very own! Call your favorite agent now for a showing! DON'T MISS OUT! PLEASE DO NOT LOCK DOOR FROM HOUSE TO GARAGE.

11. 2023-10-30
    historical Active Under Contract 880-char remark

    Show marketing remark (880 chars)

    GREAT FIRST TIME BUYER HOME! Cozy living room that walks into the kitchen/eating area with full size laundry area and pantry. HARDWOOD floors through out most of home. Down the hall there are 3 bedrooms & a full bath. The one car attached garage has extra shelving for storage and a garage opener. There is a large back yard with an 18'x 10' patio, privacy fence & double gate for bringing in that boat or large mower. You will love the newly extended driveway/sidewalk. Hot water heater with a salt free conditioning system (1-2 yrs). This home is in a perfect location, close to schools, walking trails, interstates & shopping. ( SOLD "AS IS") Seller will not do any repairs or pay for any inspections. Needs some TLC to make it your very own! Call your favorite agent now for a showing! DON'T MISS OUT! PLEASE DO NOT LOCK DOOR FROM HOUSE TO GARAGE.

12. 2023-10-28
    status Active 880-char remark

    Show marketing remark (880 chars)

    GREAT FIRST TIME BUYER HOME! Cozy living room that walks into the kitchen/eating area with full size laundry area and pantry. HARDWOOD floors through out most of home. Down the hall there are 3 bedrooms & a full bath. The one car attached garage has extra shelving for storage and a garage opener. There is a large back yard with an 18'x 10' patio, privacy fence & double gate for bringing in that boat or large mower. You will love the newly extended driveway/sidewalk. Hot water heater with a salt free conditioning system (1-2 yrs). This home is in a perfect location, close to schools, walking trails, interstates & shopping. ( SOLD "AS IS") Seller will not do any repairs or pay for any inspections. Needs some TLC to make it your very own! Call your favorite agent now for a showing! DON'T MISS OUT! PLEASE DO NOT LOCK DOOR FROM HOUSE TO GARAGE.

13. 2023-10-26
    historical Active Under Contract 880-char remark

    Show marketing remark (880 chars)

    GREAT FIRST TIME BUYER HOME! Cozy living room that walks into the kitchen/eating area with full size laundry area and pantry. HARDWOOD floors through out most of home. Down the hall there are 3 bedrooms & a full bath. The one car attached garage has extra shelving for storage and a garage opener. There is a large back yard with an 18'x 10' patio, privacy fence & double gate for bringing in that boat or large mower. You will love the newly extended driveway/sidewalk. Hot water heater with a salt free conditioning system (1-2 yrs). This home is in a perfect location, close to schools, walking trails, interstates & shopping. ( SOLD "AS IS") Seller will not do any repairs or pay for any inspections. Needs some TLC to make it your very own! Call your favorite agent now for a showing! DON'T MISS OUT! PLEASE DO NOT LOCK DOOR FROM HOUSE TO GARAGE.

14. 2023-10-22
    price $135,000 880-char remark

    Show marketing remark (880 chars)

    GREAT FIRST TIME BUYER HOME! Cozy living room that walks into the kitchen/eating area with full size laundry area and pantry. HARDWOOD floors through out most of home. Down the hall there are 3 bedrooms & a full bath. The one car attached garage has extra shelving for storage and a garage opener. There is a large back yard with an 18'x 10' patio, privacy fence & double gate for bringing in that boat or large mower. You will love the newly extended driveway/sidewalk. Hot water heater with a salt free conditioning system (1-2 yrs). This home is in a perfect location, close to schools, walking trails, interstates & shopping. ( SOLD "AS IS") Seller will not do any repairs or pay for any inspections. Needs some TLC to make it your very own! Call your favorite agent now for a showing! DON'T MISS OUT! PLEASE DO NOT LOCK DOOR FROM HOUSE TO GARAGE.

15. 2023-10-19
    listed $140,000 Active 880-char remark

    Show marketing remark (880 chars)

    GREAT FIRST TIME BUYER HOME! Cozy living room that walks into the kitchen/eating area with full size laundry area and pantry. HARDWOOD floors through out most of home. Down the hall there are 3 bedrooms & a full bath. The one car attached garage has extra shelving for storage and a garage opener. There is a large back yard with an 18'x 10' patio, privacy fence & double gate for bringing in that boat or large mower. You will love the newly extended driveway/sidewalk. Hot water heater with a salt free conditioning system (1-2 yrs). This home is in a perfect location, close to schools, walking trails, interstates & shopping. ( SOLD "AS IS") Seller will not do any repairs or pay for any inspections. Needs some TLC to make it your very own! Call your favorite agent now for a showing! DON'T MISS OUT! PLEASE DO NOT LOCK DOOR FROM HOUSE TO GARAGE.

16. 2002-10-31
    soldstatus $76,000
17. 1999-08-19
    soldstatus $69,000
18. 1997-08-27
    soldstatus $63,500
19. 1994-04-29
    soldstatus $52,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,537 · $211/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,197 · $266/mo
• Expected delta: +$660/yr (+$55/mo · 26.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,582
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,537
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,487
• − Management: −$1,487
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$2,238
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$537
• After-tax cash flow: $1,138/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Triad CUSD 2
• NCES district ID: 1737350
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $75,259
• Composite: 38.58/100
• National rank: #4165
• State rank: #106 of 620 in IL

Livability — Troy

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #2492

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Troy, IL
• County: Madison County · 189,064 people
• City population: 15,325
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 15,325
• Household income: $120,466
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 95.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 258,371 people
• By 2030: 251,523 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 233,640 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 213,042 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 165,255 · -36.0%
• By 2100: 123,953 · -52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+13.3) · D 42.5% · R 55.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.5pp toward R · 2008: 9.2pp · 2024: -13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.3 2020: R+13.2 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+1.4 2008: D+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.30%
• Current HPI: 250.2497
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+223.6% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-14 Listed $169,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-14 Coming Soon $169,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2023-11-27 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-01 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-30 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-30 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-28 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-26 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-22 Price Changed $135,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-19 Listed $140,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
• 1999-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 1997-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $63,500 Public Records
• 1994-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $52,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,537 · +68.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.