154 Diablo Rim Ter · Dripping Springs, TX 78620

$379,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,509 sqft · Land · 33 Days on market

Built 2026 5,227 sqft lot $252/sqft · 12% below area Est $434k · 12% under $45/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Jun 2026! Prepare dinner at the convenient kitchen island without missing conversation in the adjacent family room. Slate cabinets with marble-look white quartz countertops, cool brown laminate flooring, and multi-tone taupe carpet in our Finesse package. Starting from the low $400s, The Reserve Collection in Big Sky Ranch is located in the heart of Dripping Springs and offers seven single and two-story traditional floorplans ranging from 1,477 to 2,812 sq. ft. Look forward to 48 acres of parkland, a 3.1-acre amenity center with a pool, splash pad and playground, plus trails with connectivity to the adjacent Founders Memorial Park. Kids will lov

Key facts

• Amenity center
• Splash pad
• Pool

Tags

• ENERGY EFFICIENT HOME
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• AMENITY CENTER
• POOL
• SPLASH PAD
• PLAYGROUND

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Goodwin Management; Monthly HOA fee of $45; HOA covers maintenance of grounds; Community features include common grounds, park, and sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Garage faces front; Attached garage; Two covered garage spaces; Four total parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; Public water; Public sewer; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Under construction; Faces east; Built by Meritage Homes
• Construction: Composition roof; HardiPlank siding and stucco with masonry elements; Spray foam insulation; Slab foundation; Builder-reported year built source
• Exterior features: Private yard; Rear porch; In-wall pest control system; Exterior lighting; Small trees; Automatic sprinklers; Back yard; Has view (faces east)

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Quartz counters; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; Dining area; Kitchen/family room combo; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave; Plumbed for ice maker; Stainless steel appliances; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Primary bedroom with vaulted ceiling and ceiling fan (first level)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Double vanity(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating
• Interior features: Open floorplan; High ceilings; Recessed lighting; Ceiling fan(s); Double vanity(s); Kitchen island; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Low flow plumbing fixtures; Blinds; Double-pane insulated windows; SCREEN(S)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Electric dryer hookup; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $357k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (27.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $277k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.1% in Dripping Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#149 in TX, #4,158 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Dripping Springs ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #41 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 765 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $277,155 (27.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.46%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $434,075
• List price: $379,900
• Delta: -12.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.8% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-73,268
• Equity at exit: $56,644

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-88,269
• Equity at exit: $32,847

Cash invested: $106,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78620

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 765
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,772 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,992
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,483/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$582
• Net cashflow: $-130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,936

Max offer price $357,006

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $85	-5% $-22	+0% $-130	+5% $-237	+10% $-345
Rent	-10% $-349	-5% $-239	+0% $-130	+5% $-20	+10% $89
Rate	-1.0pp $62	-0.5pp $-33	base $-130	+0.5pp $-228	+1.0pp $-328

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,975
• Closing costs: $11,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
856 Lone Peak Way Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	1948	$2,550	$1.31	14d	1	0.23mi
218 Glass Mountain Way Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	2213	$2,500	$1.13	25d	1	0.28mi
218 Glass Mountain Way Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	2213	$2,500	$1.13	45d	1	0.28mi
285 Cathedral Mountain Dr Dripping Springs, TX	4.0	2.5	2111	$3,100	$1.47	5d	1	0.34mi
386 El Capitan Loop Dripping Springs, TX	4.0	3.0	2047	$2,900	$1.42	19d	1	0.40mi
210 Dome Peak Ter Dripping Springs, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,700	$1.64	45d	1	0.45mi
115 Iron Rail Rd Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	1896	$2,250	$1.19	45d	1	0.63mi
253 Spanish Star Trl Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	1652	$2,200	$1.33	25d	1	0.70mi
779 Founders Rdg Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	2123	$3,300	$1.55	4d	1	0.71mi
319 Pecos River Xing Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	2155	$3,500	$1.62	19d	1	0.82mi
1282 S Rob Shelton Blvd Dripping Springs, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	983	$2,756	$2.80	0d	47	1.13mi
468 Milkwood Ter Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	1483	$2,450	$1.65	45d	1	1.19mi
435 Hays St Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	1949	$5,250	$2.69	45d	1	1.22mi
134 Big Banyan Dr Dripping Springs, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$3,000	$1.54	45d	1	1.29mi
394 Bishop Wood Rd Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	2182	$3,200	$1.47	25d	1	1.42mi
1040 Flathead Dr Dripping Springs, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$1,696	$1.88	0d	6	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $379,900 Pending 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $379,900 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $379,900 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $379,900 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $379,900 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $379,900 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   pricedays on market $379,900 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $416,010 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $416,010 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-05-07
    listed $416,010 Active 897-char remark
11. 2026-04-25
    status Active 245-char remark
12. 2026-04-24
    historical 245-char remark
13. 2026-04-23
    price $379,990 245-char remark
14. 2026-04-22
    listed $415,990 Active 245-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,483 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,952 · $579/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,469/yr (+$456/mo · 368.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,259
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,280
• − Property taxes: −$1,483
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,661
• − Management: −$2,661
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$11,052
• Taxable loss: −$8,317
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,996
• After-tax cash flow: $441/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dripping Springs ISD
• NCES district ID: 4800008
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $103,367
• Composite: 54.5/100
• National rank: #1347
• State rank: #41 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dripping Springs

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #4158

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dripping Springs, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 22,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,860
• Household income: $153,477
• Rent vs Own: 14.1% rent · 85.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 216.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.51%
• Current HPI: 308.2387
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.80%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $379,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $416,010 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

-10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,483 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.