2852 Ernest St · Jacksonville, FL 32205

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,173 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1951 6,098 sqft lot Est $226k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come view this single family detached home in ''CHEROKEE HEIGHTS.'' This home features: open kitchen, front porch, and one car garage. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath Property.

Key facts

• Screened front porch
• Original tile bath
• Gas range

Tags

• SCREENED FRONT PORCH
• DINING AREA OFF KITCHEN
• ORIGINAL TILE BATH
• GAS RANGE
• INTERIOR UTILITY SPACE
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Single Family Residence; Currently used as residential single-family
• Exterior features: Back yard with chain link fencing; City street frontage

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $236 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 320 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $120k implies a 307% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.42%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $226,389
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2790 Forbes St	0.44mi	2/1.0	1,110 (-5%)	0mo	$259,000	$233	70
2881 Lenox Ave	0.32mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,068 (-9%)	2mo	$90,000	$84	63
768 James St	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,312 (+12%)	2mo	$253,000	$193	62
2578 Haldumar Ter	0.62mi	2/1.0	1,114 (-5%)	0mo	$280,000	$251	62
3053 Gilmore St	0.33mi	2/1.0	1,008 (-14%)	0mo	$130,000	$129	61
2950 Remington St	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,201 (+2%)	1mo	$323,970	$270	60
2908 Spencer St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (-6%)	0mo	$158,000	$144	59
2858 Downing St	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (-8%)	0mo	$195,000	$181	56
3127 Dignan St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,197 (+2%)	2mo	$210,000	$175	55
2807 Lydia St	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-8%)	2mo	$375,000	$347	53
3332 Dellwood Ave	0.66mi	2/1.0	1,023 (-13%)	0mo	$184,000	$180	48
3230 Mayflower St	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,292 (+10%)	0mo	$310,000	$240	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-6,244
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $6,647
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32205

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,523 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$288 /mo · $3,461/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,225

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2812 Ernest St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1461	$2,800	$1.92	23d	1	0.09mi
2980 Ernest St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,200	$1.30	23d	1	0.17mi
809 McDuff Ave S Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	1006	$995	$0.99	4d	1	0.21mi
2759 Dellwood Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,100	$1.94	20d	1	0.25mi
2892 College St Unit 2892-2 Jacksonville, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,195	$1.71	17d	1	0.28mi
975 Willow Branch Ave Jacksonville, FL	1.0	1.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	4d	1	0.31mi
717 King St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1132	$1,800	$1.59	17d	1	0.31mi
2929 Post St Jacksonville, FL	1.0	1.0	950	$1,100	$1.16	4d	1	0.32mi
2803 College St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,550	$1.41	14d	1	0.32mi
3036 Green St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	924	$1,495	$1.62	23d	1	0.34mi
2908 Post St Apt 3 Jacksonville, FL	1.0	1.0	720	$995	$1.38	14d	1	0.34mi
2908 Post St Unit 4 Jacksonville, FL	1.0	1.0	720	$995	$1.38	2d	1	0.34mi
2701 Myra St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1065	$1,595	$1.50	21d	1	0.38mi
2777 Post St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,195	$1.00	23d	1	0.40mi
420 Sunshine St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,350	$1.29	1d	1	0.41mi
1052 Willow Branch Ave #2 Jacksonville, FL	1.0	1.0	730	$891	$1.22	23d	1	0.44mi
1060 Cherry St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	1356	$1,623	$1.20	21d	1	0.45mi
3159 Phyllis St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,561	$1.29	3d	1	0.46mi
1098 Cherry St Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	17d	1	0.52mi
2653 College St Unit 2653 Jacksonville, FL	1.0	1.0	907	$1,295	$1.43	2d	1	0.52mi
3233 Dellwood Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,750	$1.75	23d	1	0.52mi
3236 Phyllis St Unit 3244 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$850	$1.18	23d	1	0.54mi
2614 Dellwood Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1122	$2,325	$2.07	4d	1	0.54mi
2786 Downing St Jacksonville, FL	1.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	23d	1	0.54mi
1109 Cherry St Unit 4 Jacksonville, FL	1.0	1.0	850	$1,195	$1.41	20d	1	0.55mi
2611 Green St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	728	$1,195	$1.64	23d	1	0.55mi
2611 Green St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	728	$1,195	$1.64	14d	1	0.55mi
3250 Phyllis St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$850	$1.18	23d	1	0.56mi
2657 Post St Apt 2 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	3d	1	0.57mi
828 Acosta St Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	1.0	1.0	806	$1,150	$1.43	23d	1	0.57mi
2561 Rosselle St #1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	3.0	1287	$1,395	$1.08	23d	1	0.58mi
2619 College St Unit 2 Jacksonville, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,050	$1.50	23d	1	0.58mi
3233 Post St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,095	$1.46	23d	1	0.60mi
3312 Ernest St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1065	$1,148	$1.08	23d	1	0.61mi
371 Smith St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,325	$1.26	4d	1	0.62mi
2526 Phyllis St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	23d	1	0.62mi
2842 Sydney St Unit 4 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,300	$1.08	23d	1	0.63mi
3313 Green St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1058	$1,450	$1.37	7d	1	0.63mi
3035 Fitzgerald St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,021	$1.13	3d	1	0.63mi
2578 Haldumar Ter Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	1114	$2,195	$1.97	14d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $120,000 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-05
   listed $120,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,461 · $288/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,461 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,280
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$3,461
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,462
• − Management: −$1,462
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $1,082
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$260
• After-tax cash flow: $2,569/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,148
• Household income: $64,789
• Rent vs Own: 45.2% rent · 54.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1398.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -386.70%
• Current HPI: 310.4566
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.73%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+275.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $120,000 realMLS
• 2015-04-20 Sold (MLS) $29,500 realMLS
• 2015-03-05 Pending — realMLS
• 2015-02-18 Listed $27,900 realMLS
• 2007-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2007-03-08 Sold (MLS) $115,000 realMLS
• 2007-01-17 Listed $115,000 realMLS
• 2006-03-18 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2006-03-07 Sold (MLS) $75,000 realMLS
• 2005-11-11 Listed $81,500 realMLS
• 2003-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $59,600 Public Records
• 2002-06-04 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2002-04-22 Listed $59,900 realMLS
• 1994-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 1989-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records
• 1984-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,461 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.