403 Cottonwood Dr · Copperas Cove, TX 76522

$153,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,534 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1975 0.35 ac lot Est $195k · 21% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the charm and warmth of this delightful 3-bedroom, 2-bath home ideally located near top-rated schools and shopping destinations. As you step inside, you’ll be greeted by a cozy living room featuring a beautiful fireplace, along with an additional flexible space perfect for a home office or playroom. The inviting kitchen boasts a breakfast bar and a comfortable dining area, making it perfect for gatherings. Each room is generously sized, providing plenty of space for all your furniture and personal touches. Step outside to the expansive backyard, complete with an outdoor kitchen designed for entertaining friends and family. Nestled on a large corner lot, this property offers e

Key facts

• Inviting kitchen
• Flexible space
• Cozy living room

Tags

• COZY LIVING ROOM
• BEAUTIFUL FIREPLACE
• FLEXIBLE SPACE
• INVITING KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• COMFORTABLE DINING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $153k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($417/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.5% in Copperas Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#706 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Copperas Cove ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #340 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: C R Clements/Hollie Parsons El (math 51% / reading 46%, grade D, #950 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 817 students, 68% FRL); Copperas Cove J H (math 43% / reading 42%, grade D-, #553 of 1,662 statewide, top 34%, 924 students, 63% FRL); Copperas Cove H S (math 29% / reading 42%, grade F, #941 of 1,632 statewide, top 58%, 2,277 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 41% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 386 units permitted in Coryell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($139k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 48% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,230 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.97%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $194,818
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
116 Williams St	0.23mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,619 (+6%)	2mo	$159,999	$99	71
423 Jeffery Ln	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,685 (+10%)	4mo	$214,900	$128	70
1805 E Robertson Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,718 (+12%)	2mo	$214,999	$125	67
440 Jeffery Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,736 (+13%)	2mo	$210,000	$121	67
1402 Amthor Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,453 (-5%)	8mo	$207,000	$142	67
1603 E Robertson Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-14%)	2mo	$160,000	$121	65
703 Craddock St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,704 (+11%)	4mo	$249,000	$146	62
1306 Amthor Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,366 (-11%)	3mo	$220,000	$161	60
805 Craddock St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,714 (+12%)	3mo	$217,500	$127	60
109 Ridge St	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,353 (-12%)	3mo	$144,100	$107	58
205 Nauert St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,324 (-14%)	4mo	$185,000	$140	54
1005 Virginia Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,748 (+14%)	7mo	$220,000	$126	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-26,833
• Equity at exit: $22,813

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-36,946
• Equity at exit: $13,229

Cash invested: $42,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76522

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,475 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax from tax record: −$264 /mo · $3,171/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,431

Max offer price $153,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $121	-5% $78	+0% $35	+5% $-9	+10% $-52
Rent	-10% $-82	-5% $-23	+0% $35	+5% $93	+10% $151
Rate	-1.0pp $112	-0.5pp $74	base $35	+0.5pp $-5	+1.0pp $-45

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,250
• Closing costs: $4,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1104 Cummings Ave Copperas Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1542	$1,395	$0.90	45d	1	0.01mi
418 Cottonwood Dr Copperas Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1208	$1,495	$1.24	45d	1	0.08mi
1106 Pack Ave Copperas Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,275	$0.98	45d	1	0.16mi
2315 E Business 190 Copperas Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	2103	$1,700	$0.81	25d	1	0.33mi
202 Marston Ave Unit B Copperas Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,350	$1.12	25d	1	0.34mi
202 Marston Ave Unit B Copperas Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,350	$1.12	45d	1	0.34mi
704 Kim Ave Copperas Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1692	$1,695	$1.00	23d	1	0.37mi
107 Nauert St Copperas Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,300	$0.76	45d	1	0.43mi
1306 Amthor Ave Copperas Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,399	$1.02	45d	1	0.43mi
105 Nauert St Copperas Cove, TX	4.0	1.0	1346	$1,395	$1.04	25d	1	0.43mi
304 Oak St Copperas Cove, TX	3.0	1.0	1627	$1,350	$0.83	45d	1	0.50mi
208 Oak St Copperas Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1822	$1,495	$0.82	25d	1	0.50mi
507 Kate St Copperas Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,295	$1.01	25d	1	0.51mi
518 Kate St Copperas Cove, TX	4.0	1.5	1302	$1,595	$1.23	45d	1	0.58mi
408 Allen St Copperas Cove, TX	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,095	$0.84	25d	1	0.71mi
1714 Risen Star Ln Unit A Copperas Cove, TX	3.0	2.5	1213	$1,325	$1.09	45d	1	0.75mi
1714 Risen Star Ln Unit A Copperas Cove, TX	3.0	2.5	1213	$1,325	$1.09	25d	1	0.75mi
1614 Risen Star Ln Unit B Copperas Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	2220	$1,450	$0.65	25d	1	0.76mi
1564 Risen Star Ln Unit A Copperas Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1110	$1,400	$1.26	25d	1	0.76mi
303 Margaret Lee St Copperas Cove, TX	3.0	1.0	1124	$915	$0.81	15d	1	0.83mi
1243 Liberation Ln Unit A Copperas Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,249	$0.95	45d	1	0.88mi
1316 Liberation Ln Unit B Copperas Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,300	$1.00	45d	1	0.88mi
1102 Creek St Copperas Cove, TX	4.0	2.5	1834	$1,675	$0.91	45d	1	0.94mi
1335 Liberation Ln Unit A Copperas Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1333	$2,500	$1.88	15d	1	0.94mi
1335 Liberation Ln Unit B Copperas Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1333	$2,400	$1.80	15d	1	0.95mi
613 Cedar Dr Copperas Cove, TX	3.0	2.5	2108	$2,750	$1.30	45d	1	1.02mi
917 Whirlaway Dr Copperas Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,500	$1.15	45d	1	1.12mi
1002 Northern Dancer Dr Copperas Cove, TX	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,750	$1.09	45d	1	1.17mi
403 E Hogan Dr Copperas Cove, TX	4.0	2.0	1492	$1,675	$1.12	25d	1	1.17mi
401 E Hogan Dr Copperas Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1826	$1,475	$0.81	45d	1	1.18mi
924 Northern Dancer Dr Copperas Cove, TX	4.0	2.0	1610	$1,650	$1.02	45d	1	1.18mi
211 E Hogan Dr Copperas Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,400	$1.02	15d	1	1.22mi
114 Nelson Dr Copperas Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,400	$0.97	45d	1	1.32mi
809 Shady Ln Copperas Cove, TX	4.0	1.5	1900	$1,600	$0.84	15d	1	1.33mi
914 Chalk St Copperas Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,200	$1.08	25d	1	1.47mi
105 E Reagan Ave Copperas Cove, TX	2.0	1.0	1758	$675	$0.38	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-01-28
   status Active
4. 2026-01-18
   historical Active Under Contract
5. 2026-01-12
   listed $153,000 Active
6. 2025-12-04
   historical
7. 2025-11-26
   listed $175,000 Active
8. 2000-07-12
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,171 · $264/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,171 · $264/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 48% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,698
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,570
• − Property taxes: −$3,171
• − Insurance: −$765
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,416
• − Management: −$1,416
• − Depreciation: −$4,451
• Taxable loss: −$2,091
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$502
• After-tax cash flow: $919/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Copperas Cove ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815240
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $51,072
• Composite: 35.85/100
• National rank: #4822
• State rank: #340 of 826 in TX

Livability — Copperas Cove

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #706
• US rank: #13158

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Copperas Cove, TX
• County: Coryell County · 61,053 people
• City population: 42,118
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,118
• Household income: $72,206
• Rent vs Own: 37.9% rent · 62.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1019.0

Population outlook (Coryell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,485 people
• By 2030: 75,627 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 74,898 · -0.8%
• By 2050: 74,221 · -1.7%
• By 2075: 72,688 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 66,862 · -11.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 20% Black 14% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Coryell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.7) · D 29.1% · R 69.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.7 2020: R+33.5 2016: R+39.5 2012: R+36.6 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.11%
• Current HPI: 183.9452
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2026-04-08 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2026-01-28 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2026-01-18 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $153,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-11-26 Listed $175,000 CTXMLS
• 2000-07-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,171 · +11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.