4315 N Flowing Wells Rd · Flowing Wells, AZ 85705

$8,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,418 sqft · Land public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1972 8.90 ac lot $3/sqft · 98% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Split-Plan Home in a Quiet, Amenity-Rich Community This cozy and comfortable split-plan home offers a thoughtfully designed layout with a separate dining area and plenty of functional space. An enclosed porch currently serves as a workshop, perfect for hobbies or extra storage. The home features central ducting for the evaporative cooler. The evaporative cooler works great and just needs its routine spring service. Their is a furnace, however it is in need of repair or replacement. Residents have access to an impressive clubhouse with a full kitchen, media area, showers, and pool table. Outdoor amenities include shuffleboard courts, putting greens, BBQ areas, and a heated pool available year-round, complete with a covered patio and fire pit. A wonderful blend of comfort, convenience, and community living. Sold as is.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Enclosed porch
• Impressive clubhouse

Tags

• SPLIT-PLAN HOME
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• CENTRAL DUCTING
• IMPRESSIVE CLUBHOUSE
• HEATED POOL
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $8k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $8k).
• Recommended offer: $7k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 211.8% vs local median 6.1% in Flowing Wells — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#21 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Flowing Wells Unified District (4405) (suburban): math 23% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #143 of 249 in AZ (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 177 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,804/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 4240% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $55 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $240 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $2k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($7k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $7,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 22.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 211.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 733.99%
• DSCR: 33.66
• GRM: 0.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $140,000
• List price: $8,000
• Delta: -94.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 37.26×
• Total profit: $81,221
• Equity at exit: $1,193

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 74.50×
• Total profit: $164,646
• Equity at exit: $692

Cash invested: $2,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85705

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 0.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,804 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$42
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$10 /mo · $120/yr
• Insurance: −$3
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $1,370

Break-even live

Break-even rent $70

Max offer price $8,000

Occupancy floor 19%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $2,000
• Closing costs: $240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1051 W Sea Lion Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	2010	$2,495	$1.24	1d	1	1.05mi
5132 Prairie Clover Trl Tucson, AZ	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1604	$1,897	$1.18	1d	13	1.10mi
4170 N Thurston Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	3.0	1700	$1,999	$1.18	3d	1	1.46mi
4162 N Thurston Ln #100 Tucson, AZ	3.0	3.0	1700	$1,895	$1.11	2d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $8,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $8,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $8,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $8,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $8,000 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $8,000 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $8,000 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $8,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $8,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $8,000 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $8,000 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $8,000 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $8,000 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $8,000 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-02-06
    listed $8,000 Active 849-char remark

    Show marketing remark (849 chars)

    Charming Split-Plan Home in a Quiet, Amenity-Rich Community This cozy and comfortable split-plan home offers a thoughtfully designed layout with a separate dining area and plenty of functional space. An enclosed porch currently serves as a workshop, perfect for hobbies or extra storage. The home features central ducting for the evaporative cooler. The evaporative cooler works great and just needs its routine spring service. Their is a furnace, however it is in need of repair or replacement. Residents have access to an impressive clubhouse with a full kitchen, media area, showers, and pool table. Outdoor amenities include shuffleboard courts, putting greens, BBQ areas, and a heated pool available year-round, complete with a covered patio and fire pit. A wonderful blend of comfort, convenience, and community living. Sold as is.

16. 2020-10-21
    soldstatus $5,275,000
17. 1991-12-31
    soldstatus $278,437
18. 1990-02-01
    soldstatus $1,275,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,652
• − Mortgage interest: −$448
• − Property taxes: −$120
• − Insurance: −$40
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,732
• − Management: −$1,732
• − Depreciation: −$233
• Taxable income: $17,346
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,163
• After-tax cash flow: $12,278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flowing Wells Unified District (4405)
• NCES district ID: 0403010
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $33,361
• Composite: 21.69/100
• National rank: #8271
• State rank: #143 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Flowing Wells

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #21
• US rank: #5288

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flowing Wells, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 54,700
• Household income: $37,194
• Rent vs Own: 55.1% rent · 44.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 4240.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 41% Two or more races 18% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 30% Chinese 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -163.31%
• Current HPI: 283.0647
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.30%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-99.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Listed $8,000 NAZMLS
• 2020-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $5,275,000 Public Records
• 1991-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $278,437 Public Records
• 1990-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $1,275,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $31,746 · +14.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.