Chauncy Plan · Hutto, TX 78634

$279,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,312 sqft · SingleFamily · 181 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two bedrooms situated off the foyer are ideal for younger family members, overnight guests or a home office, while the private owner's suite can be found at the back of this single-level home. A generous open floorplan promotes seamless flow between the family room and kitchen. For outdoor entertaining, a covered patio is accessed through the dining room.

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• Covered patio
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• PRIVATE OWNER'S SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $279,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $307,717.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-553 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (18.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (28.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#79 in TX, #2,794 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Hutto ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #438 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ray El (math 32% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 669 students, 47% FRL); Farley Middle (math 29% / reading 37%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 975 students, 44% FRL); Hutto H S (math 35% / reading 54%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,010 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 1501 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 88d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,214 (28.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.70%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $307,717
• List price: $279,999
• Delta: -9.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
103 Canley Loop	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-3%)	4mo	$276,500	$217	89
200 Quail Cir	0.95mi	3/2.0	1,270 (-3%)	2mo	$258,000	$203	58
606 Marimoor Dr	1.07mi	3/2.0	1,462 (+11%)	2mo	$299,000	$205	44
222 Quail Cir	1.07mi	3/2.0	1,155 (-12%)	2mo	$263,000	$228	44
1010 Pembroke Ct	1.05mi	3/2.0	1,465 (+12%)	3mo	$305,000	$208	43
1011 Pembroke Ct	1.08mi	3/2.0	1,469 (+12%)	3mo	$289,989	$197	43
411 Camellia Dr	0.95mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+13%)	5mo	$290,000	$196	40
508 Marimoor Dr	1.10mi	3/2.0	1,469 (+12%)	6mo	$289,999	$197	40
200 Bubbling Brook Dr	1.04mi	3/2.0	1,532 (+17%)	1mo	$269,900	$176	39
229 Camellia Dr	1.00mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+13%)	8mo	$269,999	$183	37
101 Bluejay Cv	0.87mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,486 (+13%)	6mo	$285,000	$192	33
401 Kates Way	0.97mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,522 (+16%)	6mo	$319,000	$210	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-90,878
• Equity at exit: $45,882

10-year hold

• IRR: -62.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.71×
• Total profit: $-146,909
• Equity at exit: $26,606

Cash invested: $86,161 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 18 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $283,499 ($201/sqft)
• Median days on market: 182 d
• This list price: 44% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +16.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78634

• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 1501
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,992 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,614
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$385 /mo · $4,616/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-553

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,692

Max offer price $227,730

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-340	-5% $-446	+0% $-553	+5% $-659	+10% $-765
Rent	-10% $-710	-5% $-631	+0% $-553	+5% $-474	+10% $-395
Rate	-1.0pp $-398	-0.5pp $-475	base $-553	+0.5pp $-633	+1.0pp $-714

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,929
• Closing costs: $9,232
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
118 Canley Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	1857	$2,000	$1.08	6d	1	0.07mi
132 Canley Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1279	$4,800	$3.75	113d	1	0.11mi
204 Longbridge Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,950	$1.30	78d	1	0.12mi
136 Canley Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	1872	$2,050	$1.10	63d	1	0.12mi
140 Canley Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,950	$1.30	42d	1	0.13mi
112 Wolseley Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1622	$1,995	$1.23	59d	1	0.14mi
207 Coventry Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1622	$1,950	$1.20	139d	1	0.20mi
212 Canley Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,800	$1.23	23d	1	0.21mi
318 Canley Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,900	$1.33	100d	1	0.25mi
607 Water Way Ave Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1830	$1,995	$1.09	93d	1	0.27mi
102 Sebring Cir Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,995	$1.19	75d	1	0.31mi
614 Milliner Loop Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1660	$2,199	$1.32	99d	1	0.36mi
401 County Road 199 Hutto, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1013	$2,444	$2.41	0d	79	0.45mi
104 Milliner Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,950	$1.30	108d	1	0.47mi
405 Osier Pass Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1688	$1,895	$1.12	3d	1	0.47mi
120 Milliner Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$2,150	$1.43	75d	1	0.52mi
230 Milliner Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	1872	$2,100	$1.12	97d	1	0.62mi
322 Meadowside Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1009	$1,750	$1.73	80d	1	0.75mi
216 Meadowside Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,995	$1.20	5d	1	0.76mi
211 Camargue Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1645	$2,090	$1.27	139d	1	0.78mi
201 Orchard Way Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1696	$2,100	$1.24	64d	1	0.81mi
105 Twilight Way Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	1725	$1,775	$1.03	74d	1	0.83mi
105 Twilight Way Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1725	$1,775	$1.03	67d	1	0.83mi
107 Harvest Ln Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,750	$1.41	139d	1	0.84mi
107 Harvest Ln Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,550	$1.25	9d	1	0.84mi
107 Tanglewood Ln Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,900	$1.26	113d	1	0.86mi
110 Meadowside Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	991	$1,500	$1.51	139d	1	0.90mi
106 Hague St Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,850	$1.32	23d	1	0.91mi
202 Evans St Unit 1 Hutto, TX	2.0	2.5	1084	$1,500	$1.38	42d	1	0.95mi
102 Aguilar Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1687	$1,850	$1.10	113d	1	0.96mi
102 Aguilar Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1687	$1,850	$1.10	110d	1	0.96mi
202 Quail Cir Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,700	$1.19	117d	1	0.97mi
307 Camellia Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1613	$1,850	$1.15	42d	1	0.98mi
107 Aguilar Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1750	$1,750	$1.00	108d	1	0.98mi
201 Quail Cir Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,950	$1.37	139d	1	0.98mi
607 Luna Vista Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1641	$1,950	$1.19	9d	1	0.99mi
222 Camellia Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1864	$2,000	$1.07	93d	1	1.05mi
203 E Pecan St Unit B Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1688	$1,900	$1.13	110d	1	1.06mi
202 Lucky Clover Ln Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,800	$1.23	139d	1	1.07mi
111 Mossy Rock Cv Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,850	$1.27	88d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-16
   days on market $279,999 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-08-15
   days on market $279,999 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-08-14
   days on market $279,999 Active 179 DOM
4. 2026-08-13
   days on market $279,999 Active 178 DOM
5. 2026-08-11
   days on market $279,999 Active 176 DOM
6. 2026-08-10
   days on market $279,999 Active 175 DOM
7. 2026-08-09
   days on market $279,999 Active 174 DOM
8. 2026-08-08
   days on market $279,999 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-08-06
   days on market $279,999 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-08-05
    days on market $279,999 Active 170 DOM
11. 2026-08-04
    days on market $279,999 Active 169 DOM
12. 2026-08-03
    days on market $279,999 Active 168 DOM
13. 2026-07-31
    days on market $279,999 Active 165 DOM
14. 2026-07-30
    days on market $279,999 Active 163 DOM
15. 2026-07-28
    days on market $279,999 Active 162 DOM
16. 2026-07-26
    days on market $279,999 Active 160 DOM
17. 2026-07-24
    days on market $279,999 Active 158 DOM
18. 2026-07-23
    days on market $279,999 Active 157 DOM
19. 2026-07-22
    days on market $279,999 Active 156 DOM
20. 2026-07-21
    days on market $279,999 Active 155 DOM
21. 2026-07-20
    days on market $279,999 Active 154 DOM
22. 2026-07-18
    days on market $279,999 Active 152 DOM
23. 2026-07-18
    days on market $279,999 Active 151 DOM
24. 2026-07-16
    days on market $279,999 Active 150 DOM
25. 2026-07-15
    days on market $279,999 Active 149 DOM
26. 2026-07-14
    days on market $279,999 Active 148 DOM
27. 2026-07-13
    days on market $279,999 Active 147 DOM
28. 2026-07-13
    days on market $279,999 Active 146 DOM
29. 2026-07-11
    days on market $279,999 Active 145 DOM
30. 2026-07-10
    days on market $279,999 Active 144 DOM
31. 2026-07-09
    days on market $279,999 Active 143 DOM
32. 2026-07-07
    days on market $279,999 Active 141 DOM
33. 2026-07-06
    days on market $279,999 Active 140 DOM
34. 2026-07-05
    days on market $279,999 Active 139 DOM
35. 2026-07-03
    days on market $279,999 Active 137 DOM
36. 2026-07-02
    days on market $279,999 Active 136 DOM
37. 2026-07-01
    days on market $279,999 Active 135 DOM
38. 2026-06-30
    days on market $279,999 Active 134 DOM
39. 2026-06-29
    days on market $279,999 Active 133 DOM
40. 2026-06-28
    days on market $279,999 Active 132 DOM
41. 2026-06-27
    days on market $279,999 Active 131 DOM
42. 2026-06-26
    days on market $279,999 Active 130 DOM
43. 2026-06-24
    days on market $279,999 Active 128 DOM
44. 2026-06-22
    days on market $279,999 Active 126 DOM
45. 2026-06-21
    days on market $279,999 Active 125 DOM
46. 2026-06-18
    days on market $279,999 Active 122 DOM
47. 2026-06-17
    days on market $279,999 Active 121 DOM
48. 2026-06-16
    days on market $279,999 Active 120 DOM
49. 2026-06-15
    days on market $279,999 Active 119 DOM
50. 2026-06-13
    days on market $279,999 Active 117 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,906
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,237
• − Property taxes: −$4,616
• − Insurance: −$1,539
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,912
• − Management: −$1,912
• − Depreciation: −$8,952
• Taxable loss: −$12,262
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,943
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,690/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,560–$19,680 screening

This single-family home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for both resale and rental value through cosmetic updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Modern flooring improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both New paint in interior walls — Fresh paint enhances interior aesthetics and can increase value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ray El F TX #1,946/4,322 Nat'l #22,764/41,679 Middle Farley Middle F TX #930/1,662 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High Hutto H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hutto ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824100
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $72,961
• Composite: 33.33/100
• National rank: #5501
• State rank: #438 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 77/100

Livability — Hutto

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #2794

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hutto, TX
• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 46,413
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,413
• Household income: $114,426
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 18% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 18% Black 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.56%
• Current HPI: 194.2221
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.41%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $279,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $279,990 Zillow