Plan 1042 Plan · Conroe, TX 77378

$186,995

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,042 sqft · SingleFamily · 165 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Open floor plan * Tile flooring at wet areas * Dedicated pantry, linen and coat closets * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * 5-panel interior doors * Gas range * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Tankless water heater * Dedicated laundry room * Splash pad * Pavilion * Playground * Near local schools * Near beautiful lakes * Outdoor recreation nearby

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Dedicated pantry
• Smart thermostat

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• DEDICATED PANTRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS RANGE
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• WATERSENSE LABELED FAUCETS

🏗️ New construction. The $186,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $220,980.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $187k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-355 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (9.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Turner El (math 55% / reading 53%, grade C, #664 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 424 students, 66% FRL); Robert P Brabham Middle (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,117 students, 52% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 724 active listings in the ZIP; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $148,346 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.89%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,980
• List price: $186,995
• Delta: -15.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2516 Eden Ridge Way	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,042 (0%)	22mo	$207,995	$200	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-61,365
• Equity at exit: $32,949

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.52×
• Total profit: $-94,123
• Equity at exit: $19,106

Cash invested: $61,874 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 724
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,483 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,159
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$276 /mo · $3,315/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $-355

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,933

Max offer price $169,581

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-202	-5% $-279	+0% $-355	+5% $-432	+10% $-508
Rent	-10% $-472	-5% $-414	+0% $-355	+5% $-297	+10% $-238
Rate	-1.0pp $-244	-0.5pp $-299	base $-355	+0.5pp $-412	+1.0pp $-471

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,245
• Closing costs: $6,629
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $186,995 Active 165 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $186,995 Active 164 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $186,995 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $186,995 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $186,995 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $186,995 Active 158 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $186,995 Active 156 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $186,995 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $186,995 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $186,995 Active 150 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $186,995 Active 147 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $186,995 Active 146 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $186,995 Active 145 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $186,995 Active 144 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $186,995 Active 143 DOM
16. 2026-03-24
    price $186,995 479-char remark

    Show marketing remark (479 chars)

    * Open floor plan * Tile flooring at wet areas * Dedicated pantry, linen and coat closets * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * 5-panel interior doors * Gas range * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Tankless water heater * Dedicated laundry room * Splash pad * Pavilion * Playground * Near local schools * Near beautiful lakes * Outdoor recreation nearby

17. 2026-03-07
    price $181,995 479-char remark

    Show marketing remark (479 chars)

    * Open floor plan * Tile flooring at wet areas * Dedicated pantry, linen and coat closets * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * 5-panel interior doors * Gas range * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Tankless water heater * Dedicated laundry room * Splash pad * Pavilion * Playground * Near local schools * Near beautiful lakes * Outdoor recreation nearby

18. 2026-02-06
    price $178,995 479-char remark

    Show marketing remark (479 chars)

    * Open floor plan * Tile flooring at wet areas * Dedicated pantry, linen and coat closets * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * 5-panel interior doors * Gas range * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Tankless water heater * Dedicated laundry room * Splash pad * Pavilion * Playground * Near local schools * Near beautiful lakes * Outdoor recreation nearby

19. 2026-01-08
    listed $183,995 Active 479-char remark

    Show marketing remark (479 chars)

    * Open floor plan * Tile flooring at wet areas * Dedicated pantry, linen and coat closets * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * 5-panel interior doors * Gas range * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * Tankless water heater * Dedicated laundry room * Splash pad * Pavilion * Playground * Near local schools * Near beautiful lakes * Outdoor recreation nearby

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,802
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,378
• − Property taxes: −$3,315
• − Insurance: −$1,105
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,424
• − Management: −$1,424
• − Depreciation: −$6,429
• Taxable loss: −$8,273
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,986
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,277/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a good kitchen, bathrooms, roof, exterior, flooring, interior walls/paint, and systems. The home is in need of some cosmetic repairs and maintenance, such as painting the exterior walls and cleaning the gutters. The highest-ROI updates that would raise its resale or rental value are painting the exterior walls and cleaning the gutters.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $186,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $181,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $178,995 Zillow
• 2026-01-08 Listed $183,995 Zillow