411 N 10th St · Lamesa, TX 79331

$48,499

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 736 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 409 Days on market

Built 1936 7,013 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTORS! Check out this one-story home in Lamesa, TX, conveniently situated near I87 and Ninth Street Park. With 736 square feet of living space on a 7000 square foot lot, this fixer-upper opportunity awaits your personal touch. Sold as is, this property offers great potential for renovation, allowing you to create your ideal space or investment. Don't miss this chance! WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream property.

Key facts

• Near i87
• One-story home
• 7,013 sq ft lot

Tags

• ONE-STORY HOME
• FIXER-UPPER OPPORTUNITY
• NEAR I87
• NEAR NINTH STREET PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $48k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $806 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $48k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#445 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Lamesa ISD (town): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #755 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Dawson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $335 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 409 days — a 12% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1936 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $42,679 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 409 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1936 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 71.22%
• DSCR: 4.17
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 70.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.20×
• Total profit: $43,464
• Equity at exit: $7,231

10-year hold

• IRR: 74.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.65×
• Total profit: $103,917
• Equity at exit: $4,193

Cash invested: $13,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79331

• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,389 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$254
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $200/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $806

Break-even live

Break-even rent $369

Max offer price $48,499

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,125
• Closing costs: $1,455
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $48,499 Active 409 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $48,499 Active 408 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $48,499 Active 407 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $48,499 Active 406 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $48,499 Active 404 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $48,499 Active 403 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $48,499 Active 400 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $48,499 Active 399 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $48,499 Active 398 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $48,499 Active 396 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $48,499 Active 394 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $48,499 Active 393 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $48,499 Active 392 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $48,499 Active 391 DOM
15. 2025-05-05
    listed $48,499 Active 603-char remark

    Show marketing remark (603 chars)

    INVESTORS! Check out this one-story home in Lamesa, TX, conveniently situated near I87 and Ninth Street Park. With 736 square feet of living space on a 7000 square foot lot, this fixer-upper opportunity awaits your personal touch. Sold as is, this property offers great potential for renovation, allowing you to create your ideal space or investment. Don't miss this chance! WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream property.

16. 2017-06-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $200 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $888 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: +$688/yr (+$57/mo · 344.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,665
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,717
• − Property taxes: −$200
• − Insurance: −$242
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,333
• − Management: −$1,333
• − Depreciation: −$1,411
• Taxable income: $9,429
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,263
• After-tax cash flow: $7,408/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamesa ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826610
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,346
• Composite: 18.85/100
• National rank: #8862
• State rank: #755 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lamesa

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #445
• US rank: #9067

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lamesa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,751

Population outlook (Dawson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,411 people
• By 2030: 12,268 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 12,260 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 12,117 · -2.4%
• By 2075: 11,504 · -7.3%
• By 2100: 10,176 · -18.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 34% Two or more races 24% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 52%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Polish 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dawson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.0) · D 19.0% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.2pp toward R · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -61.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.0 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+50.6 2012: R+43.2 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.06%
• Current HPI: 135.9298
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-05 Listed $48,499 HARMLS
• 2017-06-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $200 · -14.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.