866 Floyd St · Gary, IN 46403

$46,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 193 Days on market

Built 1929 3,630 sqft lot $30/sqft · 67% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large 2 story home on a quiet street. Needs LOTS of work.

Key facts

• 3,630 sq ft lot
• Built 1929
• Listed 192 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $47k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $750 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $47k).
• Recommended offer: $41k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.5% vs local median 9.1% in Gary — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#105 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Gary Community School Corporation (urban): math 3% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #299 of 301 in IN (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $324 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 193 days — a 12% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $41,272 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 193 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.54%
• DSCR: 4.05
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,168
• List price: $46,900
• Delta: -67.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
836 Fayette St	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (+9%)	1mo	$165,000	$97	72
5816 E 7th Ave	0.30mi	2/1.0	1,433 (-8%)	16mo	$250,000	$174	58
4630 E 10th Ave	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,620 (+4%)	18mo	$76,000	$47	54
5142 E 10th Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (+9%)	21mo	$145,900	$86	49
336 S Hamilton St	0.58mi	2/1.0	1,744 (+12%)	7mo	$113,500	$65	48
364 S Henry St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (-4%)	14mo	$63,900	$43	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.06×
• Total profit: $40,211
• Equity at exit: $6,993

10-year hold

• IRR: 72.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.36×
• Total profit: $96,684
• Equity at exit: $4,055

Cash invested: $13,132 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46403

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,394 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$246
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,031/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $750

Break-even live

Break-even rent $445

Max offer price $46,900

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $777	-5% $763	+0% $750	+5% $737	+10% $724
Rent	-10% $640	-5% $695	+0% $750	+5% $805	+10% $860
Rate	-1.0pp $774	-0.5pp $762	base $750	+0.5pp $738	+1.0pp $726

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,725
• Closing costs: $1,407
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4408 E 7th Ave Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	1920	$1,200	$0.62	0d	1	0.59mi
283 N Hamilton St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	4d	1	1.08mi
904 Idaho St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	1176	$1,200	$1.02	44d	1	1.18mi
7009 E 1st Ave Gary, IN	3.0	1.5	1680	$2,575	$1.53	18d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $46,900 Active 193 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $46,900 Active 190 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $46,900 Active 189 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $46,900 Active 188 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $46,900 Active 187 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $46,900 Active 185 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $46,900 Active 184 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $46,900 Active 181 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $46,900 Active 180 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $46,900 Active 179 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $46,900 Active 176 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $46,900 Active 175 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $46,900 Active 174 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $46,900 Active 173 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $46,900 Active 172 DOM
16. 2026-03-21
    price $46,900 57-char remark

    Show marketing remark (57 chars)

    Large 2 story home on a quiet street. Needs LOTS of work.

17. 2025-12-10
    listed $55,000 Active 57-char remark

    Show marketing remark (57 chars)

    Large 2 story home on a quiet street. Needs LOTS of work.

18. 2016-09-28
    historical
19. 2015-07-03
    listed $13,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,031 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,031 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,731
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,627
• − Property taxes: −$1,031
• − Insurance: −$234
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,339
• − Management: −$1,339
• − Depreciation: −$1,364
• Taxable income: $8,797
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,111
• After-tax cash flow: $6,890/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gary Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1803870
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,739
• Composite: 4.98/100
• National rank: #10039
• State rank: #299 of 301 in IN

Livability — Gary

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #5592

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gary, IN
• County: Lake County · 422,878 people
• City population: 63,701
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 10,929
• Household income: $45,991
• Rent vs Own: 51.2% rent · 48.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 656.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 18% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.41%
• Current HPI: 294.0935
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+260.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $46,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-10 Listed $55,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-28 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-03 Listed $13,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-10.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,031 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.