1770 N Valley Dr #65 · Apache Junction, AZ 85120

$39,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured · 49 Days on market

Built 1987 Fair condition 1,300 sqft lot Est $56k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 1,300 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease of $695 per month; Association fee includes: Other (see remarks); Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space; 1 open parking space; 1 carport space
• Utilities: Private sewer; Private water company
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home (leasehold)
• Construction: Building area reported by owner
• Exterior features: Other construction materials; Other fencing; Other roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: Up to 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Mini-split heating; Mini-split cooling
• Interior features: No interior laundry hookups reported
• Laundry & utility: No laundry features listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $958 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 35.0% vs local median 3.5% in Apache Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Desert Vista Elementary School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #729 of 1,109 statewide, top 67%, 536 students, 50% FRL); Cactus Canyon Junior High (math 14% / reading 19%, grade F, #151 of 218 statewide, top 70%, 702 students, 50% FRL); Apache Junction High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 999 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 455 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,799 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 35.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 102.64%
• DSCR: 5.57
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $56,448
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1784 N Main Dr	0.44mi	2/1.0	833 (-7%)	4mo	$249,995	$300	64
2292 N Ironwood Dr #55	0.41mi	2/2.0	960 (+7%)	3mo	$57,000	$59	62
2292 N Ironwood Dr #110	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+7%)	0mo	$67,000	$70	60
2292 N Ironwood Dr #56	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+7%)	2mo	$59,000	$61	58
2292 N Ironwood Dr #78	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+7%)	4mo	$60,000	$63	57
2292 N Ironwood Dr #103	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+12%)	5mo	$18,000	$18	56
2292 N Ironwood Dr #3	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+7%)	11mo	$65,000	$68	55
980 N Ironwood Dr #15	0.63mi	2/1.0	975 (+9%)	2mo	$77,900	$80	54
900 N San Marcos Dr #95	0.64mi	2/1.0	980 (+9%)	4mo	$20,000	$20	52
2292 N Ironwood Dr #84	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,024 (+14%)	3mo	$25,000	$24	51
2292 N Ironwood Dr #34	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,024 (+14%)	5mo	$60,000	$59	48
1363 N Plaza Dr #9	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,027 (+15%)	3mo	$135,000	$131	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.46×
• Total profit: $49,975
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.33×
• Total profit: $104,479
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85120

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 455
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,562 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $958

Break-even live

Break-even rent $350

Max offer price $39,999

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1440 N Idaho Rd Apache Junction, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1010	$1,900	$1.88	24d	3	0.82mi
2185 W Ohio St Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,295	$1.29	4d	1	1.00mi
455 N Delaware Dr Unit 7 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,900	$1.79	24d	1	1.09mi
135 N Palo Verde Dr Apache Junction, AZ	1.0	1.0	750	$915	$1.22	20d	1	1.15mi
135 N Palo Verde Dr Unit 8 Apache Junction, AZ	1.0	1.0	750	$925	$1.23	24d	1	1.15mi
695 E Superstition Blvd Apache Junction, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	983	$1,860	$1.89	2d	13	1.43mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,999 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,999 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,999 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,999 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,999 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,999 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,999 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,999 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $39,999 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,999 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,999 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,999 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,999 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-04-29
    listed $39,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,750
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,500
• − Management: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $11,546
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,771
• After-tax cash flow: $8,724/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The property requires significant repairs and maintenance, particularly to the exterior and landscaping, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior framing and siding — Exposed framing and potential structural issues.
• Major Flooring — Worn carpet, potential moisture damage.
• Major Landscaping — Overgrown yard, no landscaping features visible.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance costs.
• Both Landscaping and yard maintenance — Enhances curb appeal and property value.
• Both Replace exterior siding and framing — Fixes structural issues and improves property value.
• Both Replace HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, reducing utility costs.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior framing and siding · Exposed framing and potential structural issues.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Worn carpet, potential moisture damage.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping · Overgrown yard, no landscaping features visible.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance costs. ↑
• Both Landscaping and yard maintenance — Enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Replace exterior siding and framing — Fixes structural issues and improves property value. ↑
• Both Replace HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, reducing utility costs. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
• NCES district ID: 0400790
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 15.34/100
• National rank: #9325
• State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Apache Junction

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #11242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apache Junction, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 56,611
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,191
• Household income: $57,786
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 686.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.31%
• Current HPI: 313.4666
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.50%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $39,999 ARMLS