13254 Willow Oak Cir · Gulfport, MS 39503

$199,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,372 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 2019 6,969 sqft lot $146/sqft · 10% below area Est $224k · 11% under $18/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICED TO SELL! Make this home your own with a little paint and TLC. This home is in the popular Turtle Creek community, but only minutes from restaurants, shopping and entertainment. Originally built as an Elliot Homes model, this is a HANDY MAN SPECIAL or INVESTOR SPECIAL. This home is VACANT so Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2019

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.9% in Gulfport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#15 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 82% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $158k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,741 (11.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.72%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $224,413
• List price: $199,999
• Delta: -10.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13276 Tortoise Trl	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,312 (-4%)	1mo	$222,000	$169	84
13292 Turtle Creek Pkwy	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,312 (-4%)	4mo	$223,000	$170	75
13395 Libby Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,268 (-8%)	4mo	$198,000	$156	70
13102 Turtle Creek Pkwy	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,318 (-4%)	2mo	$209,000	$159	67
13136 Tracewood Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,425 (+4%)	1mo	$196,000	$138	64
13148 Tracewood Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+4%)	4mo	$207,000	$146	64
13691 Lawton Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,220 (-11%)	1mo	$205,000	$168	62
14111 Sanctuary Trails Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+1%)	0mo	$248,900	$179	61
14037 Sanctuary Trails Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,348 (-2%)	3mo	$249,900	$185	61
13727 Churchwood Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,237 (-10%)	4mo	$219,900	$178	61
14116 Sanctuary Trails Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,398 (+2%)	4mo	$227,900	$163	56
13637 Lawton Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-14%)	2mo	$199,000	$169	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-16,999
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $28,301
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,767 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,432/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$18
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,607

Max offer price $199,999

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13444 Willow Oak Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.5	1679	$1,750	$1.04	43d	1	0.15mi
13145 Turtle Creek Pkwy Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.5	1679	$1,795	$1.07	43d	1	0.27mi
13070 Tracewood Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,400	$1.18	21d	1	0.55mi
13463 Mary Ave Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,775	$1.13	43d	1	0.80mi
13469 Mary Ave Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,800	$1.15	43d	1	0.80mi
14179 Debra Barbee Ct Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1379	$1,849	$1.34	21d	1	0.83mi
12450 Three Rivers Rd Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1098	$1,295	$1.18	43d	1	1.00mi
13498 Dee Ave Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,750	$1.24	43d	1	1.04mi
13727 Fox Hill Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,800	$1.30	43d	1	1.04mi
13459 Gorman St Gulfport, MS	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,649	$1.65	43d	1	1.06mi
14180 Oneal Rd Gulfport, MS	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	43d	2	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $18 · $216/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,999 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,999 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,999 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,999 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,999 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,999 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,999 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,999 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,999 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,999 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,999 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,999 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,999 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,999 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-03-20
    listed $199,999 Active 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL! Make this home your own with a little paint and TLC. This home is in the popular Turtle Creek community, but only minutes from restaurants, shopping and entertainment. Originally built as an Elliot Homes model, this is a HANDY MAN SPECIAL or INVESTOR SPECIAL. This home is VACANT so Schedule your showing today!

16. 2026-01-12
    historical
17. 2025-09-19
    listed $205,000 Active
18. 2022-03-08
    soldstatus
19. 2022-03-04
    soldstatus Closed
20. 2022-02-08
    status Pending
21. 2022-01-30
    listed $195,000 Active
22. 2019-11-05
    soldstatus $157,900
23. 2019-10-31
    soldstatus
24. 2019-05-20
    listed $157,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,432 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,580 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: +$148/yr (+$12/mo · 10.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,209
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,432
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,697
• − Management: −$1,697
• − HOA: −$216
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$1,854
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$445
• After-tax cash flow: $1,966/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulfport

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #5010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulfport, MS
• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• City population: 96,188
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+26.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $199,999 MLSU
• 2026-01-12 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-09-19 Listed $205,000 MLSU
• 2022-03-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-03-04 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2022-02-08 Pending — MLSU
• 2022-01-30 Listed $195,000 MLSU
• 2019-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $157,900 Public Records
• 2019-10-31 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2019-05-20 Listed $157,900 MLSU

Property tax history

+22.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,432 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.