4374 Williamson Dr · Fort McKinley, OH 45416

$134,990

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1955 7,841 sqft lot Est $111k · 22% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 1 full bath ranch offering easy single-level living! Situated on a ranch crawl space, this move-in ready home features numerous major updates for peace of mind, including a new HVAC system, updated electric panel, new roof and gutters, and several new replacement windows. Inside, you’ll find a completely refreshed interior with new LVP flooring, fresh paint throughout, an updated kitchen, and a remodeled bathroom. The functional floor plan offers comfortable living spaces filled with natural light. Outside, enjoy the partially fenced yard—perfect for pets, play, or entertaining—as well as a detached 1-car garage for addit

Key facts

• New gutters
• Updated kitchen
• New roof

Tags

• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• UPDATED ELECTRIC PANEL
• NEW ROOF
• NEW GUTTERS
• NEW REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• UPDATED KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Detached one-car garage
• Home design: Single-story frame home
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Residential lot (approx. 45 x 95)

Interior

• Kitchen: Main-level kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms (9 x 8 and 8 x 11)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; Entry/foyer; Dining room; Living room
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room (3 x 5)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $106 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (8.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (8.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: River'S Edge Montessori Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,193 of 1,584 statewide, top 76%, 494 students, 0% FRL); Belmont High School (math 5% / reading 20%, grade F, #720 of 781 statewide, top 93%, 1,100 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 74% district-wide (74 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $934 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $135k implies a 176% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $123,631 (8.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.36%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $110,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4293 Thompson Dr	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,056 (0%)	2mo	$58,850	$56	86
4247 Otis Dr	0.16mi	3/1.0	984 (-7%)	2mo	$120,000	$122	80
4370 Saylor St	0.05mi	3/1.0	960 (-9%)	3mo	$86,750	$90	80
4130 Fleetwood Dr	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,128 (+7%)	5mo	$130,000	$115	79
4322 Saylor St	0.07mi	3/1.0	984 (-7%)	9mo	$88,000	$89	78
4082 Saylor St	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,032 (-2%)	7mo	$103,000	$100	77
4431 Wolf Rd	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-4%)	5mo	$112,900	$112	76
4333 Marlowe St	0.43mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (-4%)	1mo	$150,000	$149	67
4081 Lobata Pl	0.31mi	3/1.0	960 (-9%)	5mo	$93,000	$97	66
3539 Detroit Ave	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,023 (-3%)	5mo	$102,000	$100	59
3537 Detroit Ave	0.64mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,023 (-3%)	10mo	$135,000	$132	49
3656 Detroit Ave	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	967 (-8%)	3mo	$102,000	$105	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-15,145
• Equity at exit: $20,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-4,576
• Equity at exit: $11,671

Cash invested: $37,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45416

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,236 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,279/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,102

Max offer price $134,990

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $182	-5% $144	+0% $106	+5% $68	+10% $30
Rent	-10% $8	-5% $57	+0% $106	+5% $155	+10% $204
Rate	-1.0pp $174	-0.5pp $140	base $106	+0.5pp $71	+1.0pp $35

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,748
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4425 Thompson Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	864	$1,150	$1.33	4d	1	0.21mi
4003 Whitestone Ct Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1096	$1,275	$1.16	45d	1	0.23mi
4161 Mapleleaf Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	4d	1	0.26mi
3858 Haney Rd Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	850	$825	$0.97	4d	1	0.41mi
3711 Pittsburg Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$875	$1.09	45d	1	0.69mi
4132 Natchez Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	991	$1,250	$1.26	5d	1	0.71mi
4527 Channing Ln Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	946	$1,600	$1.69	45d	1	0.81mi
3031 Garvin Rd Unit C Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1269	$1,150	$0.91	45d	1	0.94mi
5200 Greencroft Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1116	$1,200	$1.08	4d	1	0.97mi
5200 Greencroft Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1115	$1,200	$1.08	23d	1	0.97mi
5610 N Main St Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	950	$1,100	$1.16	4d	1	1.03mi
4303 Drowfield Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	16d	1	1.20mi
132 Burgess Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$1,130	$1.26	4d	1	1.23mi
148 Burgess Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	45d	1	1.24mi
2609 Fairport Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,025	$1.02	4d	1	1.25mi
4278 Catalpa Dr Unit 4 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$795	$0.99	45d	1	1.35mi
2408 Falmouth Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	806	$950	$1.18	25d	1	1.37mi
62 W Nottingham Rd Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	765	$750	$0.98	25d	1	1.41mi
110 Cromwell Pl Unit 2 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	23d	1	1.47mi
110 Cromwell Pl Unit 5 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,099	$1.10	21d	1	1.47mi
110 Cromwell Pl Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,100	$1.05	4d	1	1.47mi
519 Heather Dr Unit 1C Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,095	$1.00	5d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-15
   pricestatusdays on market $134,990 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $132,990 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $132,990 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $134,990 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,990 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,990 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $134,990 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $134,990 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $134,990 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,990 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,990 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,990 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-28
    listed $134,990 Active
14. 2007-02-06
    soldstatus $48,850

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,279 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,692 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: +$414/yr (+$34/mo · 32.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,836
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,279
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,187
• − Management: −$1,187
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$980
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$235
• After-tax cash flow: $1,507/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton City
• NCES district ID: 3904384
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $28,688
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9579
• State rank: #641 of 656 in OH

Livability — Fort McKinley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort McKinley, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 5,640
• Household income: $46,174
• Rent vs Own: 33.7% rent · 66.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 18% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.27%
• Current HPI: 173.5938
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+176.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $134,990 Dayton MLS
• 2007-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $48,850 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,279 · -63.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.