ALFORD Plan · Saint Cloud, FL 34773

$349,990

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,739 sqft · SingleFamily · 162 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks

The Alford is a one-story home that balances style, space, and comfort. Offering 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,739 square feet, this floor plan provides plenty of room for families of all sizes. Its open-concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a welcoming space that's ideal for gatherings or everyday living. The primary suite is tucked at the back of the home for added privacy, featuring a walk-in closet and a private bathroom with dual vanities and a separate space for the shower and toilet. Four additional bedrooms at the front of the home offer flexibility for family, guests, or even a home office.

Key facts

• Garage
• Listed 161 days

🏗️ New construction. The $349,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $417,081.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-735 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $311k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harmony Community School (math 70% / reading 64%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 1,012 students, 38% FRL); Narcoossee Middle School (math 55% / reading 57%, grade B-, #175 of 571 statewide, top 31%, 1,371 students, 46% FRL); Harmony High School (math 40% / reading 46%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,822 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 60% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Osceola average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 511 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 75d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $938 of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $271,794 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.55%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $417,081
• List price: $349,990
• Delta: -16.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2810 Harmonia Hammock Rd	0.33mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,830 (+5%)	3mo	$350,000	$191	69
2839 Harmonia Hammock Rd	0.26mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,830 (+5%)	9mo	$359,000	$196	66
2672 Harmonia Hammock Rd	0.28mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,830 (+5%)	13mo	$390,000	$213	62
6702 Grace Hammock Rd	0.19mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,830 (+5%)	18mo	$359,000	$196	62
6883 Botanic Blvd	0.59mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,716 (-1%)	10mo	$345,000	$201	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.47% appreciation · 1.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-71,315
• Equity at exit: $111,467

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-90,628
• Equity at exit: $126,520

Cash invested: $116,783 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 20 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 30.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $400,000 ($213/sqft)
• Median days on market: 124 d
• This list price: 10% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34773

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 511
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,718 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,187
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$521 /mo · $6,256/yr
• Insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $-735

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,649

Max offer price $310,699

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-447	-5% $-591	+0% $-735	+5% $-879	+10% $-1,023
Rent	-10% $-950	-5% $-843	+0% $-735	+5% $-628	+10% $-520
Rate	-1.0pp $-525	-0.5pp $-629	base $-735	+0.5pp $-843	+1.0pp $-953

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,270
• Closing costs: $12,512
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6746 Grace Hammock Rd Harmony, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,275	$1.24	88d	1	0.17mi
6799 Sarus Crane Pt Harmony, FL	4.0	3.0	2089	$2,400	$1.15	29d	1	0.18mi
6731 Grace Hammock Rd Harmony, FL	4.0	2.5	2208	$2,281	$1.03	88d	1	0.21mi
3164 Crispin Cir Harmony, FL	4.0	3.0	2200	$2,400	$1.09	119d	1	0.26mi
6833 Cranes Roost Rd Harmony, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,350	$1.28	74d	1	0.40mi
6853 Botanic Blvd Harmony, FL	4.0	2.0	1720	$2,300	$1.34	7d	1	0.55mi
6440 Pine Fork Aly Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	3.0	2023	$2,500	$1.24	74d	1	1.02mi
6930 Audobon Osprey Cv Harmony, FL	4.0	3.0	2106	$2,550	$1.21	7d	1	1.04mi
6336 Chirpine Ln Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	3.0	2055	$2,800	$1.36	119d	1	1.05mi
6464 Needle Way Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	3.0	2055	$2,350	$1.14	29d	1	1.07mi
7110 Sandhill Crane Way Harmony, FL	4.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	2133	$2,885	$1.35	7d	12	1.13mi
2708 Pine Sap Ln Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	3.0	2061	$2,049	$0.99	4d	1	1.23mi
2708 Pine Sap Ln Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	3.0	2061	$2,300	$1.12	94d	1	1.23mi
2708 Pine Sap Ln Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	3.0	2061	$2,199	$1.07	60d	1	1.23mi
7110 Sandhill Crane Way Unit 1 St Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,722	$1.49	119d	1	1.24mi
3303 Primrose Willow Dr Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	2047	$2,430	$1.19	119d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $369,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space1 parking space (total)
• Home design: Single-family plan (ALFORD)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,739

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Active listingPlan: ALFORD (new construction)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $349,990 Active 162 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $349,990 Active 161 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $349,990 Active 160 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $349,990 Active 159 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $349,990 Active 158 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $349,990 Active 157 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $349,990 Active 156 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $349,990 Active 155 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $349,990 Active 154 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $349,990 Active 153 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $349,990 Active 152 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $349,990 Active 151 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $349,990 Active 150 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $349,990 Active 149 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $349,990 Active 143 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $349,990 Active 142 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $349,990 Active 141 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $349,990 Active 138 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $349,990 Active 137 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $349,990 Active 136 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $349,990 Active 135 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $349,990 Active 134 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $349,990 Active 133 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $349,990 Active 132 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $349,990 Active 129 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $349,990 Active 128 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $349,990 Active 127 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $349,990 Active 126 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $349,990 Active 125 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $349,990 Active 124 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $349,990 Active 123 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $349,990 Active 122 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    pricedays on market $349,990 Active 121 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $369,990 Active 120 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $369,990 Active 119 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $369,990 Active 117 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $369,990 Active 116 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $369,990 Active 115 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $369,990 Active 113 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $369,990 Active 112 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $369,990 Active 111 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $369,990 Active 110 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $369,990 Active 107 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $369,990 Active 106 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $369,990 Active 105 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $369,990 Active 104 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $369,990 Active 102 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $369,990 Active 100 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $369,990 Active 99 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $369,990 Active 98 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,615
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,363
• − Property taxes: −$6,256
• − Insurance: −$2,085
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,609
• − Management: −$2,609
• − Depreciation: −$12,133
• Taxable loss: −$16,441
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,946
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,876/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern and inviting interior. It's move-in ready with minimal updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and marketability.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Freshens look and improves energy efficiency ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 55/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Harmony Community School B+ FL #450/2,144 Nat'l #4,366/41,679 Middle Harmony Middle School B- FL #196/571 Nat'l #2,699/14,009 High Harmony High School F FL #255/667 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — Saint Cloud

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Osceola County · 447,624 people
• City population: 106,667
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 5,816
• Household income: $80,524
• Rent vs Own: 10.2% rent · 89.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 46% of renters

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Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 20%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.47%
• Current HPI: 279.5662
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.79%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $369,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space1 parking space (total)
• Home design: Single-family plan (ALFORD)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,739

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Active listingPlan: ALFORD (new construction)