4348 Essex St · Salem, OR 97317

$38,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 940 sqft · Manufactured public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1968 Est $46k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Accepted Offer with Contingencies. Well-maintained and nicely REMODELED manufactured home in a clean, established park. This home offers a functional layout with bright, comfortable living spaces and amazing updates throughout. Open kitchen with updated appliances. PLUS! 3 additional sheds/storage buildings, including WORKSHOP! Enjoy low-maintenance living with convenient access to I-5 and Hwy 22.

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• 3 additional sheds
• Workshop

Tags

• REMODELED MANUFACTURED HOME
• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• 3 ADDITIONAL SHEDS
• WORKSHOP
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO I-5
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO HWY 22

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Parcel number 126725; Paved road access; Unit length 20
• Financial info: Lot rent $1,363 per month; Land lease expires December 31, 2026; Home warranty included
• HOA & community: Located in Meadowlark Park; Senior community; Land lease (monthly lot rent)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Shared well water; Public sewer; No fuel source listed
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park; Residential property; Home model: Van Dyke; Manufacturer: Guerdon; Territorial view
• Construction: Metal roof; Built in 1968; County-recorded building area 1,880
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Covered patio; Outbuilding; Workshop; Aluminum siding

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Dishwasher; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level; 2nd bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 partial bathroom (total 2 baths)
• Heating & cooling: Mini split heating; Mini split cooling
• Interior features: Furnished; Laminate flooring; Electric fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer/Dryer included; Electric hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $38k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $933 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $38k).
• Recommended offer: $37k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 35.8% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Miller Elementary School (361 students, 76% FRL); Houck Middle School (949 students, 74% FRL); North Salem High School (2,239 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 53% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $263 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $37,430 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 35.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 105.24%
• DSCR: 5.68
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $46,060
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4347 Essex St SE	0.02mi	2/2.0	960 (+2%)	14mo	$38,000	$40	84
2200 Lancaster Dr SE Unit 1D	0.36mi	2/2.0	960 (+2%)	2mo	$20,000	$21	78
2232 42nd Ave SE #322	0.29mi	2/2.0	938 (-0%)	13mo	$45,000	$48	75
2232 42nd Ave #610	0.29mi	2/2.0	924 (-2%)	12mo	$45,000	$49	74
2232 42nd Ave SE #204	0.29mi	2/1.0	945 (+0%)	11mo	$70,000	$74	72
2232 42nd Ave SE #781	0.29mi	2/2.0	871 (-7%)	11mo	$13,000	$15	65
4413 Essex St	0.07mi	2/1.0	840 (-11%)	13mo	$55,000	$65	64
2232 42nd Ave SE #819	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,026 (+9%)	16mo	$76,000	$74	58
2200 SE Lancaster Dr Unit 23A	0.36mi	2/1.0	828 (-12%)	3mo	$7,000	$8	57
2232 42nd Ave SE #111	0.29mi	2/1.0	840 (-11%)	11mo	$10,000	$12	55
2200 SE Lancaster Dr Unit 13D	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+12%)	13mo	$135,000	$128	52
2200 SE Lancaster Dr	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+12%)	13mo	$135,000	$128	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.95×
• Total profit: $52,718
• Equity at exit: $5,666

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.29×
• Total profit: $120,163
• Equity at exit: $3,286

Cash invested: $10,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97317

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,476 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$199
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $217/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $933

Break-even live

Break-even rent $295

Max offer price $38,000

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $955	-5% $944	+0% $933	+5% $922	+10% $912
Rent	-10% $817	-5% $875	+0% $933	+5% $991	+10% $1,050
Rate	-1.0pp $952	-0.5pp $943	base $933	+0.5pp $923	+1.0pp $913

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,500
• Closing costs: $1,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2728 Lancaster Dr SE Unit 2728-14 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,195	$1.20	46d	1	0.12mi
4665 Campbell Dr SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	923	$1,699	$1.84	16d	1	0.36mi
4435 Campbell Dr SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	807	$1,445	$1.79	25d	1	0.43mi
4243 Campbell Dr SE Unit 4243 Salem, OR	3.0	1.0	936	$1,550	$1.66	16d	1	0.52mi
1569 Whitaker Dr SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	933	$1,799	$1.93	16d	1	0.80mi
4976 Turquoise Ave SE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,495	$1.63	16d	5	0.91mi
1029 Raffon Ct SE Unit AR7171-3 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	927	$1,700	$1.83	25d	1	0.96mi
4807 Chinook Ct SE Salem, OR	3.0	1.5	1104	$2,200	$1.99	16d	1	1.19mi
5192 Caplinger Rd SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	927	$1,554	$1.67	16d	25	1.22mi
3897 Meadowlawn Loop SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,619	$1.68	16d	26	1.47mi
3828 Bayonne Dr SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	980	$1,299	$1.33	16d	1	1.49mi
3822 Bayonne Dr SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	980	$1,299	$1.33	25d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-14
   status $38,000 Pending 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $38,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $38,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $38,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $38,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $38,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $38,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $38,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $38,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $38,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-05-20
    historical Active under Contract 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Accepted Offer with Contingencies. Well-maintained and nicely REMODELED manufactured home in a clean, established park. This home offers a functional layout with bright, comfortable living spaces and amazing updates throughout. Open kitchen with updated appliances. PLUS! 3 additional sheds/storage buildings, including WORKSHOP! Enjoy low-maintenance living with convenient access to I-5 and Hwy 22.

12. 2026-05-17
    listed $38,000 Active
13. 2026-05-16
    listed $38,000 Active 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Accepted Offer with Contingencies. Well-maintained and nicely REMODELED manufactured home in a clean, established park. This home offers a functional layout with bright, comfortable living spaces and amazing updates throughout. Open kitchen with updated appliances. PLUS! 3 additional sheds/storage buildings, including WORKSHOP! Enjoy low-maintenance living with convenient access to I-5 and Hwy 22.

14. 2026-04-15
    soldstatus $35,000 Sold 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Well-maintained and nicely REMODELED manufactured home in a clean, established park. This home offers a functional layout with bright, comfortable living spaces and amazing updates throughout. Open kitchen with updated appliances. PLUS! 3 additional sheds/storage buildings, including WORKSHOP! Enjoy low-maintenance living with convenient access to I-5 and Hwy 22.

15. 2026-04-15
    soldstatus $35,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Well-maintained and nicely REMODELED manufactured home in a clean, established park. This home offers a functional layout with bright, comfortable living spaces and amazing updates throughout. Open kitchen with updated appliances. PLUS! 3 additional sheds/storage buildings, including WORKSHOP! Enjoy low-maintenance living with convenient access to I-5 and Hwy 22.

16. 2026-04-10
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Well-maintained and nicely REMODELED manufactured home in a clean, established park. This home offers a functional layout with bright, comfortable living spaces and amazing updates throughout. Open kitchen with updated appliances. PLUS! 3 additional sheds/storage buildings, including WORKSHOP! Enjoy low-maintenance living with convenient access to I-5 and Hwy 22.

17. 2026-04-10
    status Pending 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Well-maintained and nicely REMODELED manufactured home in a clean, established park. This home offers a functional layout with bright, comfortable living spaces and amazing updates throughout. Open kitchen with updated appliances. PLUS! 3 additional sheds/storage buildings, including WORKSHOP! Enjoy low-maintenance living with convenient access to I-5 and Hwy 22.

18. 2026-04-03
    listed $35,000 Active 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Well-maintained and nicely REMODELED manufactured home in a clean, established park. This home offers a functional layout with bright, comfortable living spaces and amazing updates throughout. Open kitchen with updated appliances. PLUS! 3 additional sheds/storage buildings, including WORKSHOP! Enjoy low-maintenance living with convenient access to I-5 and Hwy 22.

19. 2026-04-02
    listed $35,000 Active
20. 2025-06-24
    historical
21. 2025-05-14
    status Active
22. 2025-05-09
    status Pending
23. 2025-04-06
    price $17,999
24. 2025-03-22
    price $20,999
25. 2025-03-15
    price $23,999
26. 2025-02-15
    price $26,999
27. 2025-02-08
    price $29,999
28. 2025-02-02
    price $33,999
29. 2025-01-22
    price $36,999
30. 2025-01-20
    status Active
31. 2025-01-16
    status Pending
32. 2024-11-22
    price $39,999
33. 2024-11-08
    price $49,000
34. 2024-10-26
    price $52,000
35. 2024-10-09
    listed $55,000 Active
36. 1986-09-22
    soldstatus $13,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $217 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $369 · $31/mo
• Expected delta: +$152/yr (+$13/mo · 70.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,717
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,129
• − Property taxes: −$217
• − Insurance: −$190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,417
• − Management: −$1,417
• − Depreciation: −$1,105
• Taxable income: $11,241
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,698
• After-tax cash flow: $8,500/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 193,601
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 25,966
• Household income: $84,393
• Rent vs Own: 29.2% rent · 70.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 395.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 17% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -471.73%
• Current HPI: 307.3264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+192.3% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2026-05-17 Listed $38,000 RMLS
• 2026-05-16 Listed $38,000 WVMLS
• 2026-04-15 Sold (MLS) $35,000 RMLS
• 2026-04-15 Sold (MLS) $35,000 WVMLS
• 2026-04-10 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-04-10 Pending — WVMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $35,000 WVMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $35,000 RMLS
• 2025-06-24 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2025-05-14 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2025-05-09 Pending — WVMLS
• 2025-04-06 Price Changed $17,999 WVMLS
• 2025-03-22 Price Changed $20,999 WVMLS
• 2025-03-15 Price Changed $23,999 WVMLS
• 2025-02-15 Price Changed $26,999 WVMLS
• 2025-02-08 Price Changed $29,999 WVMLS
• 2025-02-02 Price Changed $33,999 WVMLS
• 2025-01-22 Price Changed $36,999 WVMLS
• 2025-01-20 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2025-01-16 Pending — WVMLS
• 2024-11-22 Price Changed $39,999 WVMLS
• 2024-11-08 Price Changed $49,000 WVMLS
• 2024-10-26 Price Changed $52,000 WVMLS
• 2024-10-09 Listed $55,000 WVMLS
• 1986-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2017): $217 · +21.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.