2889 S County Road 406 · Henderson, TX 75654

$255,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 2013 0.80 ac lot $145/sqft · 43% below area Est $444k · 43% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.9/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

At 2889 S COUNTY ROAD 406 in Henderson, Texas, a residential sanctuary awaits, promising immediate comfort and a warm invitation to a life well-lived. The culinary heart of this residence presents an open floor plan, fostering an atmosphere of effortless daily living. Here, the kitchen becomes a central gathering point, featuring sophisticated stone countertops and a practical backsplash that frames the cooking area. A modern stovetop invites culinary exploration, while the expansive kitchen bar and peninsula provide generous space for both meal preparation and casual conversation. Within the private retreats of this residence, discover thoughtful design elements that enhance daily routines. A spacious walk-in closet offers extensive organizational possibilities, ensuring personal items are beautifully arranged. The bathroom provides a serene sanctuary, complete with a contemporary walk-in shower designed for invigorating refreshment. Step outside to embrace a lifestyle of outdoor enjoyment and tranquility. A charming porch beckons for moments of quiet contemplation, while the patio provides an ideal setting for al fresco dining and relaxation. The securely fenced backyard offers a private expanse for various pursuits, all while enjoying the picturesque backdrop of a woods view. Additional convenience is found in the dedicated shed, providing practical storage solutions amidst the natural beauty. Further enhancing the convenience of this home, a dedicated laundry room simplifies household tasks, contributing to an organized and comfortable living environment. This residential property offers a harmonious blend of refined interior spaces and captivating outdoor serenity, truly a place to experience cherished moments.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Kitchen bar
• Stone countertops

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• STONE COUNTERTOPS
• KITCHEN BAR
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-842 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $106k (58.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (51.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (58.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.3% vs local median 2.9% in Henderson — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#408 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• West Rusk County Consolidated ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: West Rusk El (223 students, 80% FRL); West Rusk Middle (math 50% / reading 47%, grade C-, #392 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 246 students, 74% FRL); West Rusk H S (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 369 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Rusk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Rusk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,219 (58.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 58% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.49% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.15%
• DSCR: 0.37
• GRM: 17.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $443,753
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: -42.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2826 County Road 406 S	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,952 (+11%)	12mo	$255,000	$131	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $85,294
• Equity at exit: $229,724

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.11×
• Total profit: $293,472
• Equity at exit: $495,409

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75654

• Home prices YoY: 7.8%
• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 17.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,241 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$379 /mo · $4,547/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $-842

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,307

Max offer price $106,219

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-698	-5% $-770	+0% $-842	+5% $-914	+10% $-987
Rent	-10% $-940	-5% $-891	+0% $-842	+5% $-793	+10% $-744
Rate	-1.0pp $-714	-0.5pp $-777	base $-842	+0.5pp $-908	+1.0pp $-976

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $255,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $255,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $255,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $255,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $255,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $255,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $255,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,000 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,000 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,000 Active 44 DOM
18. 2026-04-16
    listed $255,000 Active 1745-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1745 chars)

    At 2889 S COUNTY ROAD 406 in Henderson, Texas, a residential sanctuary awaits, promising immediate comfort and a warm invitation to a life well-lived. The culinary heart of this residence presents an open floor plan, fostering an atmosphere of effortless daily living. Here, the kitchen becomes a central gathering point, featuring sophisticated stone countertops and a practical backsplash that frames the cooking area. A modern stovetop invites culinary exploration, while the expansive kitchen bar and peninsula provide generous space for both meal preparation and casual conversation. Within the private retreats of this residence, discover thoughtful design elements that enhance daily routines. A spacious walk-in closet offers extensive organizational possibilities, ensuring personal items are beautifully arranged. The bathroom provides a serene sanctuary, complete with a contemporary walk-in shower designed for invigorating refreshment. Step outside to embrace a lifestyle of outdoor enjoyment and tranquility. A charming porch beckons for moments of quiet contemplation, while the patio provides an ideal setting for al fresco dining and relaxation. The securely fenced backyard offers a private expanse for various pursuits, all while enjoying the picturesque backdrop of a woods view. Additional convenience is found in the dedicated shed, providing practical storage solutions amidst the natural beauty. Further enhancing the convenience of this home, a dedicated laundry room simplifies household tasks, contributing to an organized and comfortable living environment. This residential property offers a harmonious blend of refined interior spaces and captivating outdoor serenity, truly a place to experience cherished moments.

19. 1994-02-09
    soldstatus
20. 1992-09-21
    soldstatus
21. 1991-03-08
    soldstatus
22. 1987-06-22
    soldstatus
23. 1984-03-12
    soldstatus
24. 1978-06-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,547 · $379/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,666 · $389/mo
• Expected delta: +$120/yr (+$10/mo · 2.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,889
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$4,547
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,191
• − Management: −$1,191
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$15,017
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,604
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,502/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Rusk County Consolidated ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845150
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,896
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4902
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Henderson

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #408
• US rank: #8434

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,184

Population outlook (Rusk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 52,498 people
• By 2030: 52,093 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 50,866 · -3.1%
• By 2050: 49,696 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 48,583 · -7.5%
• By 2100: 43,265 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 16% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 18%

Political lean MEDSL · Rusk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.4) · D 20.0% · R 79.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -46.3pp · 2024: -59.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.4 2020: R+55.7 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+51.1 2008: R+46.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.83%
• Current HPI: 397.5
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $255,000 LAAR
• 1994-02-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-09-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-03-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1987-06-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1984-03-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1978-06-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,547 · +17.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.