3337 Dawns Dell · Zephyrhills, FL 33541

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 150 Days on market

Built 2009 3,978 sqft lot Est $159k · 26% over $80/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tippecanoe Village is a resident-owned, age-restricted (55+) mobile home community in Zephyrhills. In a resident-owned community you own both your home and the land it sits on — so there’s no traditional lot rent. HOA fee is $80/monthly which covers water, sewer, trash, clubhouse, and pool.  This 2009 Homes of Merit features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. The kitchen features lots of cabinets and counter space. This is a split bedroom floor plan with high ceilings throughout. The primary bedroom features a double wide closet, and the bathroom features a double vanity and walk in shower.  So many features, call today to schedule your tour.

Key facts

• 3,978 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total monthly fees $80; total annual fees $960; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Tippecanoe Village Office) with monthly fee of $80; HOA fee includes water, sewer and trash; Community clubhouse and pool; Buyer approval required; Senior community; Pets allowed: dogs and cats

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water available; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; South-facing; One-level entry
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed and screened side porch; Storage; Workshop; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $368 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.7% in Zephyrhills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#330 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,275/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 393% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $200k implies a 208% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.89%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $158,592
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34334 Timberland Blvd	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,357 (+1%)	8mo	$170,000	$125	75
3125 Briar St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	1mo	$170,000	$118	72
3141 Great Oak St	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,226 (-9%)	1mo	$125,000	$102	58
35043 Chancey Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	7mo	$196,000	$157	56
3025 Hickory Dr	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (+1%)	14mo	$153,000	$113	54
3045 Shady Creek Dr	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,214 (-10%)	6mo	$130,000	$107	54
3041 Short Leaf St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,170 (-13%)	11mo	$157,500	$135	54
3324 Carnation Ln	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-11%)	19mo	$170,000	$142	52
3020 Moss Hill St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,539 (+14%)	8mo	$155,000	$101	52
3145 Hickory Dr	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,144 (-15%)	1mo	$155,000	$135	44
3819 Chah Dr	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,395 (+4%)	16mo	$164,000	$118	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-15,571
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-8,881
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,275 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,602/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,809

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2883 Peony Prairie Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,099	$1.25	11d	1	0.56mi
34350 Redwood Dawn Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,350	$1.40	5d	1	0.56mi
34276 Redwood Dawn Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,500	$1.49	24d	1	0.58mi
2839 Maiden Grass Isle Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1546	$2,600	$1.68	24d	1	0.66mi
34211 Jasper Stone Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1852	$3,200	$1.73	24d	1	0.69mi
34916 Mulrion Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,100	$1.39	24d	1	0.72mi
36232 Lanier Oaks Pt , FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,700	$1.28	24d	1	0.73mi
2516 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	24d	1	0.97mi
33801 Jasmine Star Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,300	$1.52	24d	1	0.98mi
2415 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,300	$1.68	5d	1	1.00mi
2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,849	$1.35	17d	1	1.01mi
2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1373	$1,849	$1.35	12d	1	1.01mi
2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,849	$1.35	24d	1	1.01mi
35077 Ackley Trce Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,500	$1.34	18d	1	1.03mi
34214 Rogallo Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1574	$2,050	$1.30	24d	1	1.04mi
2358 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	3d	1	1.05mi
2350 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1555	$2,500	$1.61	24d	1	1.06mi
33780 Charleston Club Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,135	$2.19	2d	11	1.06mi
34214 Cinder Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1650	$2,200	$1.33	5d	1	1.09mi
4410 Sailplane Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1574	$2,100	$1.33	24d	1	1.10mi
2308 Alee Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,825	$1.33	17d	1	1.12mi
2313 Alee Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1555	$2,000	$1.29	5d	1	1.13mi
2264 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	24d	1	1.14mi
34142 Polacca Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,100	$1.53	24d	1	1.22mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,999	$1.46	22d	1	1.24mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,999	$1.46	24d	1	1.24mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,900	$1.38	11d	1	1.24mi
2187 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1373	$1,945	$1.42	15d	1	1.25mi
35759 Sunflower Hill Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1584	$2,400	$1.52	11d	1	1.30mi
2085 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,200	$1.60	5d	1	1.34mi
2081 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1553	$2,200	$1.42	18d	1	1.34mi
33976 Lusitano Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1251	$2,895	$2.31	12d	71	1.36mi
36171 Sunflower Hill Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,450	$1.57	11d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashpool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $200,000 Active 136 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 134 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 133 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-01-19
    listed $200,000 Active
15. 2007-03-16
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,602 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,602 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,297
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,602
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,184
• − Management: −$2,184
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $1,346
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$323
• After-tax cash flow: $4,094/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #5760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+207.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-19 Listed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,602 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.