101 Plantation Dr · Todd Mission, TX 77484

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1998 0.75 ac lot $110/sqft · 54% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Buyer Opportunity with Endless Potential! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with an additional flex space offers a fantastic opportunity for investors or buyers ready to bring their vision to life. Full of potential, this handyman special is being sold AS IS and is ideal for those looking to customize and create value. Nestled in a quiet neighborhood with no MUD tax and no HOA, this property offers both freedom and affordability. The versatile layout provides plenty of room to reimagine the space to fit your needs. Enjoy added convenience with an RV hookup at the rear, making it perfect for travelers or additional storage options. Whether you're looking for your next investment project or a place to transform into your dream home, this property is ready for its next chapter. Don’t miss the chance to turn this hidden gem into something truly special!

Key facts

• 0.75 acre lot
• Built 1998
• Listed 76 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $241 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.9% in Todd Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#549 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1183 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $159k implies a 184% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,460 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.48%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $343,243
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -53.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27923 Riley Rd	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,650 (+15%)	22mo	$455,000	$276	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-15,483
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-13,224
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77484

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 1183
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,736 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,767/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,431

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,000 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $159,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-05-08
    price $159,000 871-char remark

    Show marketing remark (871 chars)

    Buyer Opportunity with Endless Potential! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with an additional flex space offers a fantastic opportunity for investors or buyers ready to bring their vision to life. Full of potential, this handyman special is being sold AS IS and is ideal for those looking to customize and create value. Nestled in a quiet neighborhood with no MUD tax and no HOA, this property offers both freedom and affordability. The versatile layout provides plenty of room to reimagine the space to fit your needs. Enjoy added convenience with an RV hookup at the rear, making it perfect for travelers or additional storage options. Whether you're looking for your next investment project or a place to transform into your dream home, this property is ready for its next chapter. Don’t miss the chance to turn this hidden gem into something truly special!

15. 2026-04-03
    listed $165,000 Active 871-char remark

    Show marketing remark (871 chars)

    Buyer Opportunity with Endless Potential! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with an additional flex space offers a fantastic opportunity for investors or buyers ready to bring their vision to life. Full of potential, this handyman special is being sold AS IS and is ideal for those looking to customize and create value. Nestled in a quiet neighborhood with no MUD tax and no HOA, this property offers both freedom and affordability. The versatile layout provides plenty of room to reimagine the space to fit your needs. Enjoy added convenience with an RV hookup at the rear, making it perfect for travelers or additional storage options. Whether you're looking for your next investment project or a place to transform into your dream home, this property is ready for its next chapter. Don’t miss the chance to turn this hidden gem into something truly special!

16. 2025-10-09
    historical
17. 2025-07-29
    price $155,000
18. 2025-04-17
    listed $180,000 Active
19. 2023-07-27
    listed $99,999 Active
20. 2023-07-27
    historical
21. 2002-09-24
    soldstatus $56,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,767 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,910 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$143/yr (+$12/mo · 5.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,828
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,767
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,666
• − Management: −$1,666
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $402
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$97
• After-tax cash flow: $2,790/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Todd Mission

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #549
• US rank: #10627

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,348
• Household income: $81,250
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 270.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
• Current HPI: 397.85
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+183.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-17 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2023-07-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-07-27 Listed $99,999 HARMLS
• 2002-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,767 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.