Stardom Plan · Estero, FL 33928

$576,990

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,269 sqft · SingleFamily · 956 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 956 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing provided by Zillow; information deemed reliable but not guaranteed
• Financial info: List price $573,990

Exterior

• Home design: New construction plan (Stardom); Listed as Active
• Construction: Living area approximately 2269; Model/plan name: Stardom
• Exterior features: Address: 18405 Parksville Dr, Estero, FL 33928

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan model home (Stardom)

🏗️ New construction. The $576,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $626,244.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $577k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-462 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $559k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $489k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $489k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pinewoods Elementary School (math 81% / reading 74%, grade A, #163 of 2,144 statewide, top 8%, 1,089 students, 25% FRL); Lexington Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,138 students, 44% FRL); South Fort Myers High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,917 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 57% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,894/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 606% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 956 days — a 12% lower offer ($508k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $489,372 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 956 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.16%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $626,244
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20175 Millrun Dr	0.26mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,300 (+1%)	15mo	$695,000	$302	68
20285 Napa Loop	0.26mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,133 (-6%)	18mo	$580,000	$272	56
20530 Pebble Glen Dr	0.46mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,099 (-8%)	12mo	$579,000	$276	49
18647 Ives Dr	0.56mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,032 (-10%)	12mo	$664,900	$327	39
20154 Hartford Blvd	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,056 (-9%)	23mo	$535,260	$260	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-145,158
• Equity at exit: $93,375

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-219,397
• Equity at exit: $54,146

Cash invested: $175,348 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,894 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,284
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$783 /mo · $9,394/yr
• Insurance: −$261
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,028
• Net cashflow: $-462

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,478

Max offer price $559,423

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-29	-5% $-245	+0% $-462	+5% $-678	+10% $-895
Rent	-10% $-848	-5% $-655	+0% $-462	+5% $-268	+10% $-75
Rate	-1.0pp $-146	-0.5pp $-303	base $-462	+0.5pp $-624	+1.0pp $-789

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $156,561
• Closing costs: $18,787
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20419 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2088	$6,490	$3.11	25d	1	0.13mi
20285 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2133	$6,200	$2.91	25d	1	0.23mi
20179 Millrun Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	2493	$4,300	$1.72	25d	1	0.25mi
18334 Ridgeline Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2434	$4,700	$1.93	23d	1	0.29mi
18315 Parksville Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2444	$4,995	$2.04	5d	1	0.30mi
19278 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2201	$3,395	$1.54	5d	1	0.30mi
18315 Ridgeline Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$3,750	$1.70	18d	1	0.34mi
18278 Ridgeline Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2434	$7,500	$3.08	25d	1	0.35mi
20047 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$9,000	$4.09	5d	1	0.37mi
20047 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2621	$3,495	$1.33	18d	1	0.37mi
20514 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1670	$5,700	$3.41	25d	1	0.39mi
18282 Parksville Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2126	$10,000	$4.70	25d	1	0.41mi
20015 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$8,000	$3.63	25d	1	0.43mi
20530 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2099	$5,950	$2.83	25d	1	0.43mi
20040 Hartford Blvd Estero, FL	3.0	4.0	2534	$3,800	$1.50	25d	1	0.43mi
20024 Hartford Blvd Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2081	$6,950	$3.34	25d	1	0.46mi
19218 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1655	$3,000	$1.81	16d	1	0.46mi
19100 Hanley Blvd Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2434	$4,000	$1.64	25d	1	0.60mi
19232 Gentry Pl Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$3,800	$1.73	25d	1	0.84mi
19712 Deming Ln Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2091	$8,500	$4.07	23d	1	1.03mi
19565 Deming Ln Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	1852	$3,800	$2.05	25d	1	1.24mi
19563 Utopia Ln Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2010	$5,995	$2.98	25d	1	1.29mi
19527 Utopia Ln Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	1852	$4,000	$2.16	25d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $576,990 Active 956 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $576,990 Active 952 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $576,990 Active 951 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $576,990 Active 950 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $576,990 Active 948 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $576,990 Active 944 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $576,990 Active 942 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $576,990 Active 936 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   pricedays on market $576,990 Active 935 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,725
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,079
• − Property taxes: −$9,394
• − Insurance: −$3,131
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,698
• − Management: −$4,698
• − Depreciation: −$18,218
• Taxable loss: −$16,493
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,958
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,583/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B