1417 16th St · Bismarck, ND 58501

$199,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,006 sqft · Other · 48 Days on market

Built 1956 7,500 sqft lot ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

You can't miss this great listing in central Bismarck! This home is located beside Pioneer Elementary School and Simle Middle School, making this an amazing home for a family with kids. This 3 bedroom up 2 down has a ton of updates from the bathrooms to the newly refinished wood floors to the new countertops and back splash in the kitchen. Also new trim on the main floor too! And if you like to be outside this backyard is something you have to see! Two large decks with a wrap around waterfall into a pond makes your home the ideal hangout for your friends and family. Don't miss this great house and call me today!

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Large kitchen
• 7,500 sq ft lot

Tags

• FULL WIDTH FRONT PORCH
• SINGLE ATTACHED GARAGE
• FENCED YARD
• LARGE KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.1% in Bismarck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in ND, #2,213 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 127 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $193,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.26%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-5,841
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $64,764
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58501

• Rents YoY: 10.8%
• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,062 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$252 /mo · $3,029/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,752

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1513 N 18th St Bismarck, ND	5.0	2.0	2100	$2,250	$1.07	21d	1	0.14mi
1304 N 4th St Bismarck, ND	4.0	2.0	1975	$1,800	$0.91	21d	1	0.91mi
926 N Mandan St Bismarck, ND	4.0	2.0	2032	$2,436	$1.20	21d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-02-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-17
   status Active
3. 2026-01-10
   status Pending
4. 2025-12-10
   listed $199,900 Active
5. 2016-09-21
   soldstatus 619-char remark

   Show marketing remark (619 chars)

   You can't miss this great listing in central Bismarck! This home is located beside Pioneer Elementary School and Simle Middle School, making this an amazing home for a family with kids. This 3 bedroom up 2 down has a ton of updates from the bathrooms to the newly refinished wood floors to the new countertops and back splash in the kitchen. Also new trim on the main floor too! And if you like to be outside this backyard is something you have to see! Two large decks with a wrap around waterfall into a pond makes your home the ideal hangout for your friends and family. Don't miss this great house and call me today!

6. 2016-09-21
   soldstatus $220,900

   Show marketing remark (619 chars)

   You can't miss this great listing in central Bismarck! This home is located beside Pioneer Elementary School and Simle Middle School, making this an amazing home for a family with kids. This 3 bedroom up 2 down has a ton of updates from the bathrooms to the newly refinished wood floors to the new countertops and back splash in the kitchen. Also new trim on the main floor too! And if you like to be outside this backyard is something you have to see! Two large decks with a wrap around waterfall into a pond makes your home the ideal hangout for your friends and family. Don't miss this great house and call me today!

7. 2016-07-14
   listed $218,900 619-char remark

   Show marketing remark (619 chars)

   You can't miss this great listing in central Bismarck! This home is located beside Pioneer Elementary School and Simle Middle School, making this an amazing home for a family with kids. This 3 bedroom up 2 down has a ton of updates from the bathrooms to the newly refinished wood floors to the new countertops and back splash in the kitchen. Also new trim on the main floor too! And if you like to be outside this backyard is something you have to see! Two large decks with a wrap around waterfall into a pond makes your home the ideal hangout for your friends and family. Don't miss this great house and call me today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,029 · $252/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,029 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$3,029
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,980
• − Management: −$1,980
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$253
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$61
• After-tax cash flow: $3,004/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck 1
• NCES district ID: 3800014
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,649
• Composite: 36.76/100
• National rank: #4577
• State rank: #25 of 53 in ND

Livability — Bismarck

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #2213

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bismarck, ND
• County: Burleigh County · 97,300 people
• City population: 97,300
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 29,405
• Household income: $68,755
• Rent vs Own: 37.3% rent · 62.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 865.0

Population outlook (Burleigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,359 people
• By 2030: 133,047 · +11.5%
• By 2040: 161,545 · +35.3%
• By 2050: 191,960 · +60.8%
• By 2075: 274,569 · +130.0%
• By 2100: 350,910 · +194.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Native American 5% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Burleigh

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.5% · R 70.7% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.6pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+40.2 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.24%
• Current HPI: 218.67
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.82%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

-8.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-03 Pending — GNMLS
• 2026-01-17 Relisted — GNMLS
• 2026-01-10 Pending — GNMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listed $199,900 GNMLS
• 2016-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $220,900 Public Records
• 2016-09-21 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 2016-07-14 Listed $218,900 GNMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,029 · -5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.